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OBS and nowcast Thursday morning 2/18 - 11PM Friday 2/19/21


wdrag
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23 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Just drove back from Elizabeth to Metuchen with my son, after stopping for White Castle of course and it was snow until about Woodbridge, when I heard pinging on the windshield and I thought, no damn this can't be sleet already as the met on 1010 WINS said the sleet line was in Manasquan. Sounds like it was more like rimed snow (with supercooled liquid that crystallizes as ice on snowflakes, making them kind of large and hard) - didn't see the classic small discrete perfectly formed sleet pellets (usually somewhat cubic) that were clear ice and they definitely made noise like sleet - have only seen that a few times. From what I heard we had a fair amount of that rimed snow, but also sleet while I was gone.

Had 2.25" at 10 am and now have 3.5" at noon, which is only 1.25" in the last 2 hours - if that had been all snow, it would have been 2-3"+, looking at the radar intensity. Oh well, still a cool storm with more to go. Currently a mix of sleet and snow.

Did some "forensics" and closely inspected the snow "column" and I have about 3" of snow underneath about 1/2" of the mixed rimed snow/sleet (was definitely looking like pure sleet in there and others have said we had sleet while I was gone).  If that layer is ~3:1 like most sleet, then 1/2" of it is about 1.6" of 10:1 snow, meaning I would have had about 4.6" of snow if it had been all regular snow, which makes more sense.  Right now it keeps going back and forth between pure sleet (I checked it closely and it's sleet) and giant aggregates of snowflakes - if we could get an hour of these aggregates, we'd accumulate pretty quickly, but I have no clue what we're going to get for the next 1-2 hours whlie we're still getting decent precip.  I did predict "3.5" of snow, then 1" of sleet (3" snow equivalent) on Thursday, then 1.5" of snow on Friday over a long period" yesterday for my house, which could end up being close.  

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