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February 18/19 Party - STORM MODE


stormtracker
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Just now, NovaWahoo said:

Between model run question inspired by the IBM model posts before. 

Are all the major models entirely government-funded models? If so, it does seem to me that there should be market incentive to push the limits on modeling. For gov't purposes it may be sufficient to give people a 24-48 hour warning of inclement weather, allow preparations to be made to protect life and property, and make sure you have the salt trucks and plows deployed in the right places (and erring on the side of caution here is no big deal). But if I've got billions invested and it's going to be affected by ice or travel disruptions, I want to know 2 weeks ago. 

Science has limits and it may just be that there isn't much more that can be done. But if I was Elon Musk ...  

Seems to me the models already do a really good job at identifying regions which are in the crosshairs for potentially disruptive weather several days in advance.  I know we get upset because the models can't pinpoint banding and warm layers far in advance but for the purpose of emergency planning they are a fantastic tool that are always being improved.

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Just now, EHoffman said:

Seems to me the models already do a really good job at identifying regions which are in the crosshairs for potentially disruptive weather several days in advance.  I know we get upset because the models can't pinpoint banding and warm layers far in advance but for the purpose of emergency planning they are a fantastic tool that are always being improved.

Totally agree. They are tremendous being able to tell us weather is coming. Amazing actually. And in the scheme of things is there really that much difference between 3” of snow or 6”. No there isn’t.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Totally agree. They are tremendous being able to tell us weather is coming. Amazing actually. And in the scheme of things is there really that much difference between 3” of snow or 6”. No there isn’t.

Yeah I mean look at the soundings for tomorrow morning... most of the profiles have a warm nose that is within about 1 degree (on either side depending on the model) of the 0C line. That will obviously make the difference between sleet and snow, you can't realistically expect any guidance to be good enough to resolve that even a few hours out. much less 24+

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG updated forecast looks pretty decent to me although their "boom" range increased.  I know they like to make their regions sort of "elegantly curved", but it always makes me a little twitchy that it doesn't align with the Fall Line.  

I’m riding my local on the 8’s I just spied on the Weather Channel. 5-8”!? Ok WC. Go off! And screw you Euro!! :lol:
 

Eta: probably better in banter. Sorry. 

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9 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said:

Between model run question inspired by the IBM model posts before. 

Are all the major models entirely government-funded models? If so, it does seem to me that there should be market incentive to push the limits on modeling. For gov't purposes it may be sufficient to give people a 24-48 hour warning of inclement weather, allow preparations to be made to protect life and property, and make sure you have the salt trucks and plows deployed in the right places (and erring on the side of caution here is no big deal). But if I've got billions invested and it's going to be affected by ice or travel disruptions, I want to know 2 weeks ago. 

Science has limits and it may just be that there isn't much more that can be done. But if I was Elon Musk ...  

I agree that there's opportunity there. In fairness though, IBM does have a model (which we laugh at) and they are a leading supercomputer manufacturer. I think part of the problem may be data acquisition for model input. NWS has a large network to gather data that would be really expensive to replicate. I'm not sure that data is all readily accessible. The old data adage "garbage in, garbage out" is very accurate. So even if IBM or Musk could build an epic supercomputer and program top-notch physics into it, the model would still be crap without good data. 

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Just look at the radar on the Gulf Coast and look at your current temps. Now look at what is happening in TX and realize you are all going to get hit tonight and tomorrow with a high impact winter storm. Are we getting feet of snow? Nope. But we are all getting hit. We'll unless you are in Short Pump that is. 

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Just look at the radar on the Gulf Coast and look at your current temps. Now look at what is happening in TX and realize you are all going to get hit tonight and tomorrow with a high impact winter storm. Are we getting feet of snow? Nope. But we are all getting hit. We'll unless you are in Short Pump that is. 

I got here too late for this inside joke. May I somewhat ruin it by asking what the hell it is? 

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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I got here too late for this inside joke. May I somewhat ruin it by asking what the hell it is? 

I believe it's because Short Pump is an odd city to have show up on a modeled map. Someone, no idea who, made a joke about Short Pump not getting something, and its gone from there. 

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10 minutes ago, mappy said:

I believe it's because Short Pump is an odd city to have show up on a modeled map. Someone, no idea who, made a joke about Short Pump not getting something, and its gone from there. 

it's not even a city really - it's just an unincorporated part of western Henrico County near Richmond.  It's like Seven Corners (Ffx County) or something showing up on a map.

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