Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 This is a pretty fun panel. Quite the area of 1-2"/hr rates with mid levels comfortably below 0 for all of DC and NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Huge discrepancies in QPF right now on EURO vs. other models... Not too sure about it tbh. Even the typically dry 3k NAM has about .2" more for the NW crew than the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: this is bs. Half the qpf of GFS. The euro is always so dry I posted that this was coming. It’s always drier than the others. Doesn’t mean it won’t be wetter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @Ji is in meltdown mode! Even DT divorced the Euro. Ji, let us know if you need a divorce attorney. The Euro is still decent and if this is the worst case scenario, we take! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away. We are like 12 hours from first flakes lol. But don’t worry 18z will be different. Hoping for a last minute positive trend! Reverse bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: @Ji is in meltdown mode! Even DT divorced the Euro. Ji, let us know if you need a divorce attorney. The Euro is still decent and if this is the worst case scenario, we take! Who cares? 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Huge discrepancies in QPF right now on EURO vs. other models... Not too sure about it tbh. Even the typically dry 3k NAM has about .2" more for the NW crew than the EURO. i mean no other region in the country has to go through this where right before a snowstorm....models are so different with snow/qpf/upper level temps..etc/having or not having a wave 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away. A 'meeting of the minds' with a merge to the middle of both would be fine with me. Would make an almost area wide 5-10 event. I'll take that every time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i mean no other region in the country has to go through this where right before a snowstorm....models are so different with snow/qpf/upper level temps..etc/having or not having a wave 2 Hasn’t happened yet brother. Keep the faith. We are never getting the storm you want which is Jan 16’...not this year. Be happy it could be rain...all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Texarkana and just east of there are getting crushed right now. What model had that best pegged? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: A 'meeting of the minds' with a merge to the middle of both would be fine with me. Would make an almost area wide 5-10 event. I'll take that every time. It’s weird. The GFS-Para jacks the DC metro area. The Euro has the same area as a snowhole. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: It’s weird. The GFS-Para jacks the DC metro area with precip. The Euro has the same area as a precip hole. Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The para is just an outlier, IMO. It's not like it has support from other models anymore. It was abandoned by the parent GFS and the Ukie and it's trying to hold down the weenie fort all by its lonesome. I would weight it very low right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: The para is just an outlier, IMO. It's not like it has support from other models anymore. It was abandoned by the parent GFS and the Ukie and it's trying to hold down the weenie fort all by its lonesome. I would weight it very low right now. How about the Icon? Better or worse than the Para? NOGAPS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away. Here in Philly it's the same theme. The closer to the event the more confusing it is becoming. I think its the multiple shortwaves causing all the issues. Youre seeing a partial phase with the energy dropping down from Canada while the main energy is still digging in the south. The timing & strength of this seems to be causing increased variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, chris21 said: Def not a precip hole in the slightest. DC actually has more qpf than regions to the north. It is more sleet than snow on the euro however. Edit: I see you said snow hole! No argument there Sorry, I edited it so snowhole after I saw that the precip was actually fairly decent. Looks like a combination of precip and temp differences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro still low 10s in the cities and single digits in the 'burbs Sunday morning. Euro's the coldest global on this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 If the PARA doesn't back down, I guess tomorrow will test its chops vs the GFS. World of difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: How about the Icon? Better or worse than the Para? NOGAPS? The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said: The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para. Yeah, my post about the Para was kind of tongue in cheek. Most guidance does seem to be focusing in on 2-4/3-6 type deal for DC area, plus sleet and ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Between model run question inspired by the IBM model posts before. Are all the major models entirely government-funded models? If so, it does seem to me that there should be market incentive to push the limits on modeling. For gov't purposes it may be sufficient to give people a 24-48 hour warning of inclement weather, allow preparations to be made to protect life and property, and make sure you have the salt trucks and plows deployed in the right places (and erring on the side of caution here is no big deal). But if I've got billions invested and it's going to be affected by ice or travel disruptions, I want to know 2 weeks ago. Science has limits and it may just be that there isn't much more that can be done. But if I was Elon Musk ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CWG updated forecast looks pretty decent to me although their "boom" range increased. I know they like to make their regions sort of "elegantly curved", but it always makes me a little twitchy that it doesn't align with the Fall Line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, NovaWahoo said: Between model run question inspired by the IBM model posts before. Are all the major models entirely government-funded models? If so, it does seem to me that there should be market incentive to push the limits on modeling. For gov't purposes it may be sufficient to give people a 24-48 hour warning of inclement weather, allow preparations to be made to protect life and property, and make sure you have the salt trucks and plows deployed in the right places (and erring on the side of caution here is no big deal). But if I've got billions invested and it's going to be affected by ice or travel disruptions, I want to know 2 weeks ago. Science has limits and it may just be that there isn't much more that can be done. But if I was Elon Musk ... Seems to me the models already do a really good job at identifying regions which are in the crosshairs for potentially disruptive weather several days in advance. I know we get upset because the models can't pinpoint banding and warm layers far in advance but for the purpose of emergency planning they are a fantastic tool that are always being improved. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Models aren’t going to be able to forecast with the kind of precision some desire. About 2” on snow and about 0.25” on precip is about the best you can expect IMO. Temps probably 2-5°. We are really at the point now of radar and sat watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If the PARA doesn't back down, I guess tomorrow will test its chops vs the GFS. World of difference The para has been like a bully about giving DCA 8-12"... It just won't back down. Would be an EPIC coup if it wins. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para. Thanks, friend. I wasn't being serious, but appreciate you posting it all the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Seems to me the models already do a really good job at identifying regions which are in the crosshairs for potentially disruptive weather several days in advance. I know we get upset because the models can't pinpoint banding and warm layers far in advance but for the purpose of emergency planning they are a fantastic tool that are always being improved. Totally agree. They are tremendous being able to tell us weather is coming. Amazing actually. And in the scheme of things is there really that much difference between 3” of snow or 6”. No there isn’t. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Thanks, friend. I wasn't being serious, but appreciate you posting it all the same. I thought so, but we haven't really been talking about the ICON so I wasn't sure. That's actually the first I've looked at the ICON this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Arkadelphia getting blasted now...what model had that? And can someone help Arkansas get some original names for their cities? I always want to see how areas before us perform to see if they over or underperform to get a small gauge on potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts