Amped Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: Para looking a lot like the old FV3 did a ways back... so weenie For V16 they upgraded the GFS to the RGEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CMC is similar to the RGEM. But a little better with the back edge stuff on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Para looking a lot like the old FV3 did a ways back... so weenie I mean it is the best model that works 1/4 of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 C’mon y’all, maps or it didn’t happen. Some of us are way too lazy to look up our own info. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: C’mon y’all, maps or it didn’t happen. Some of us are way to lazy too look up our own info. at least you're honest. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: I mean it is the best model that works 1/4 of the time 60% of the time it works every time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Looks like a 4-5 hr thump, then sleet, then ZR, then maybe some wraparound pixie dust with 33 degree temps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Forecast for 30, might not make that 26.2/1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28/10 Sun out but so far Temps staying steading at 28 for the past several hours. High forecasted is 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, mappy said: Not everyone is going to see 4-8" and will see a lot more sleet/ice. So, while it looks great for YOU, it is not so great for others. I don’t disagree. I guess, to me, that 3-6 and ice isn’t exactly terrible either for a storm that was supposed to cut west of us less than 90 hours ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 It is certainly a cold day considering we have had full sun most of the morning. 31 degrees with more cloud cover now. Kids went outside to play, but they came in quick. Cold not as fun without the white stuff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: It is certainly a cold day considering we have had full sun most of the morning. 31 degrees with more cloud cover now. Kids went outside to play, but they came in quick. Cold not as fun without the white stuff Yup. Going to be very interesting to see what happens this afternoon with temps. We might wind up being a bit colder than guidance which isn't surprising. MAV/MET mos has been running a bit too high of late and as others alluded to earlier in this thread, being just a degree or two colder in the column for a few hours more tomorrow will have big implications between 2" - 4" of snow then a mix, or people boom and get 5"+. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Expecting models to nail a warm layer to a single degree or even two seems to be a stretch of capability. Just an opinion. I think the 850s will hold for 6 plus hours for the cities. It should be fun too cause it comes in hot and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: I don’t disagree. I guess, to me, that 3-6 and ice isn’t exactly terrible either for a storm that was supposed to cut west of us less than 90 hours ago To you. That's the key. Many haven't seen more than 2" during any event this year, calling them fools for finding another event where they have to hope for a decent front end thump before a flip to sleet, is just not cool man. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Im going 2-5" for the cities and I95 with 4-8" for NW crew with lollies to 10". Most of the snow for the cities from 6AM-11AM. Then a period of moderate sleet for an hour or 2 and then light sleet/freezing rain for the afternoon and early evening. I dont know what to make of the back end stuff yet. Usually NW crew does a lot better with that stuff 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 UK targets DC and south with the heaviest stuff as well. Those of us out west are watching our QPF dry up quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: UK targets DC and south with the heaviest stuff as well. Those of us out west are watching our QPF dry up quick. Shhh...don't tell luvr! 29 with 80% low clouds in Burke. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: UK targets DC and south with the heaviest stuff as well. Those of us out west are watching our QPF dry up quick. What’s new about that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 My wunderground says 28, which is pretty dankly crisp for mid-feb in the UHI. Mostly clouded over now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK targets DC and south with the heaviest stuff as well. Those of us out west are watching our QPF dry up quick. Ukie is really warm at 850mb. Blech. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 GFS did really well with this storm. Kudos 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK targets DC and south with the heaviest stuff as well. Those of us out west are watching our QPF dry up quick. Let’s be real here tough ... the UKIE hasn’t been good either. The only model that has been good all winter is the one that shows me getting the most snow. I’ll let you know around 10 tonight which one that is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I really don't understand this warm layer on the RGEM. With 700 and 850's warm, this explains why the RGEM is holding back on totals. This will be the time it gets it right. Where my 40" from a few weeks ago? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK targets DC and south with the heaviest stuff as well. Those of us out west are watching our QPF dry up quick. Im not worried if I was the NW crew...you guys almost always get heavier bands that sometimes the models dont see. Youll maximize the front end because youll be colder and whatever backend there is, youll get it because thats how it works 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Let’s be real here tough ... the UKIE hasn’t been good either. The only model that has been good all winter is the one that shows me getting the most snow. I’ll let you know around 10 tonight which one that is. I am not really worried about it. I think we are pretty much a lock for 5 inches at this point. I am intrigued by the second part Thursday night though. The UK has that band. It is just a little too far north for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Quasievil said: I really don't understand this warm layer on the RGEM. With 700 and 850's warm, this explains why the RGEM is holding back on totals. This will be the time it gets it right. Where my 40" from a few weeks ago? I think this is the model’s attempt to factor in banding. So that signifies a heavy band through PWC at hour 30 that is just puking snow which cools the climb just enough! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS did really well with this storm. Kudos It did pretty well with the H in Colorado haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Im not worried if I was the NW crew...you guys almost always get heavier bands that sometimes the models dont see. Youll maximize the front end because youll be colder and whatever backend there is, youll get it because thats how it works I'm not worried. I'm colder than progged, there's moisture on the way and I'm in an area that historically does better with storms. I am right against the BR so typically we get some mixing albeit much less than the metros. I expect nothing different this time around. 4" is my bar with some crunchy ice on top as the finisher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS did really well with this storm. Kudos In fairness to the GFS, every model was showing that to some degree. Your point still stands tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I think this is the model’s attempt to factor in banding. So that signifies a heavy band through PWC at hour 30 that is just puking snow which cools the climb just enough! Makes sense. Banding is typically a crap shoot so I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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