PCT_ATC Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Warnings coming out shortly. already received the warning for Fauquier thru My Radar App 3 mins ago. strange part is it hasn't updated on the NOAA site yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I love seeing the mention of heavy snow in the warning text. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, PCT_ATC said: already received the warning for Fauquier thru My Radar App 3 mins ago. strange part is it hasn't updated on the NOAA site yet! now it has... reminds me of the movie "Pretty In Pink"? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, mdhokie said: This has been some great discussion and I thank you and the red taggers who have engaged. Could it be that the not ideal mid level low track now results in quicker warming than we have seen in the past? Where does the warm air come from, is it from the southern land or does the ocean water come into play here? Its almost like typical fall line storms are now fall line + 10 miles storms, meaning you need to be 10+ miles further north/west than in the past to get the same results, and those east of that line get mud. That’s my suspicion. If everything is 1-2 degrees warmer a warm layer that was right at freezing is now just above. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ifindppl Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Share| Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 956 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-504-506-508-VAZ052>054-506-172300- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- 956 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow along with sleet and freezing rain. Total snow accumulations around 3 to 6 inches with ice accumulation around one to a quarter inch. * WHERE...The Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas. * WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday. Snow will begin between 3 and 5 AM. Snow will change to a mixture of sleet and freezing rain during the late morning and early afternoon hours. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow Thursday morning will be heavy at times with snowfall rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour possible along with visibility reduced to around one-quarter mile at time. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 my prediction for Warrenton, 3.1 inches before a change over to sleet with a nice healthy crust of it at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 really good agreement among most of the CAMs (NAM nest, WRF NMMB, WRF ARW, WRF NSSL ARW) of ice storm warning criteria being met in southern MD. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I love seeing the mention of heavy snow in the warning text. Travel could be nearly impossible. That’s the money sentence. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, high risk said: really good agreement among most of the CAMs (NAM nest, WRF NMMB, WRF ARW, WRF NSSL ARW) of ice storm warning criteria being met in southern MD. Convection-allowing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 There is a ton of juice down on the Gulf coast when looking at the national radar. And it is getting juicier by the hour. The cold is in place and is the best cold we have had this entire season. I like our chances. 24/10 in the Winchester area. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 * WHAT...Heavy snow along with sleet and freezing rain. Total snow accumulations around 3 to 6 inches with ice accumulation around one to a quarter inch. assume they meant to say "one tenth to a quarter inch"... would hope we don't get anywhere near one inch! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said: Convection-allowing? yes - all of the high-resolution models. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 RGEM is a sleet bomb for DC which would be fun and keeps light precip around until the overnight hours into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 SPC's 12z HREF is running. 00z HREF was 0.5" to 1.0" mean QPF across the I-81 to I-95 corridor. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: RGEM is a sleet bomb for DC which would be fun and keeps light precip around until the overnight hours into Friday. RGEM kinda sucks. Much drier for DC and points south. Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM kinda sucks. Much drier for DC and points south. Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference. That model has not performed well recently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM kinda sucks. Much drier for DC and points south. Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference. Sim radar looked like a lot of sleet which I’m 100% fine with but hadn’t seen the total precip. Definitely drier. It looks like it’d be about 3” of snow/sleet for DC based on the QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: RGEM kinda sucks. Much drier for DC and points south. Slighty colder at 850 and 700, but not enough to make a huge difference. Given how much this model swings for the fences with precip I just don't know how much to trust a sudden shift to the other end of the spectrum. It could just be correcting itself but need to see if others also do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Not just DC. Would be kind of fun though you have to admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 RGEM qpf 12z versus NAM 3k 12z, by 00z sat. NAM sends more juice north, RGEM more rain dumpage far south. agreement on over 0.5 in almost all of MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Looking at the QPF panels for the 3k NAM and RGEM there appears to be a nudge up and better distribution of the moisture from the cities N&W. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 ICON has the second wave for later Friday with an inch or 2 for southern/eastern areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 WSW for 4-8” and up to a 0.25”. Yes please. Anybody who calls that a “disaster” is a dang fool. 3 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 over one inch of ice! hope that was a typo. otherwise, better find some candles and prepare to lose power for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: WSW for 4-8” and up to a 0.25”. Yes please. Anybody who calls that a “disaster” is a dang fool. Yup. Typical La Nina climo storm...you nickel and dime your way towards climo. Considering that we had almost nothing to track last year inside of D15, this is at least something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: WSW for 4-8” and up to a 0.25”. Yes please. Anybody who calls that a “disaster” is a dang fool. Not everyone is going to see 4-8" and will see a lot more sleet/ice. So, while it looks great for YOU, it is not so great for others. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, flsch22 said: over one inch of ice! hope that was a typo. otherwise, better find some candles and prepare to lose power for days Usually these sections are pre-filled text that they select as an option to include during the creation of the product. However, forecasters can free hand additional information, so either we found a bug OR we hope it was a typo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: WSW for 4-8” and up to a 0.25”. Yes please. Anybody who calls that a “disaster” is a dang fool. After how this season has gone, anyone who buys these forecasts as gospel is a bigger fool 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfpackwxDC said: Usually these sections are pre-filled text that they select as an option to include during the creation of the product. However, forecasters can free hand additional information, so either we found a bug OR we hope it was a typo! The products were updated to say, "around one tenth to one quarter of an inch". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 It’s cold and most of us are not seeing plain rain I think...that should be enough for big smiles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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