mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 27, Mostly Sunny. Snow pack still hanging on 30/12 here. I'd say I've still got 50-60% snow cover going on, though its a slushy muddy mess out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Temps around Charlottesville are busting 4-5 degrees below forecast. High was supposed to be 40 here. CHO hit 36, UVA Main Campus 35. Currently 34/14 EDIT: Might've spoken too soon. CHO up to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 LWX updated their maps... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 43 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I agree that there's opportunity there. In fairness though, IBM does have a model (which we laugh at) and they are a leading supercomputer manufacturer. I think part of the problem may be data acquisition for model input. NWS has a large network to gather data that would be really expensive to replicate. I'm not sure that data is all readily accessible. The old data adage "garbage in, garbage out" is very accurate. So even if IBM or Musk could build an epic supercomputer and program top-notch physics into it, the model would still be crap without good data. That’s why outcome analogs should be the method and not theoretical physics. Very good data since 1960. 60 years. Let’s say there are 3 Miller As per season, 180 sample size. Break those 180 down to 1. The low passes within 30 miles of Atlanta. 2. The low is more than 30 miles north of Atlanta 3. The low is more than 30 miles south of Atlanta then overlay that with 1.The high is 30.30 or higher 12 hours before onset 2.The high is lower than 30.30 You will get a decent sample set of 10-20 matching outcomes in each category. No wailing about sample size, the outcomes are what they are When you take #1 on the storm and #1 on the high and 20 instances arise and 15 times DC got 3” or more then there is your model replacement When you take #2 and #2 and 22 instances match and 16 times DC got rain then there is your new and improved, outcome based, non model forecasting. The will is not there mostly due to entrenched commitment to status quo and embedded money issues. i promised you all I had a solution and not just bitching. Let the naysay begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Busting high in Pasadena... 34 forecasted. Currently 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 34/13 Mostly sunny hope we can keep clears skies till after sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Unless you live right here! Oh wait, that's me! #sleet Hey yo what the...I think Baltimore City has all three colors!! How, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: LWX updated their maps... This is the correct snowfall map. Yours was from 3am. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Hey yo what the...I think Baltimore City has all three colors!! How, lol Ha! Walk across the street and get snow, step back over and get sleet! Awesome! Let's hope it's wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, mappy said: This is the correct snowfall map. Yours was from 3am. Yea i dunno what was going on with the copy/paste... in the paste window it looked fine but was reverting to the 3am map after i submitted the reply. Very weird. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, mappy said: This is the correct snowfall map. Yours was from 3am. I was getting ready to say...that 6-8" for Baltimore at the 3 am update never made much sense, lol I still don't know if we get to the 5" (yes I know I'm a tad obsessed...it's just been a lot of trolling in the snow guage, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 Earlier start on the NAM. looks like 3/4AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: Ha! Walk across the street and get snow, step back over and get sleet! Awesome! Let's hope it's wrong. And walk a block away and get rain? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Quick and dirty forecast for DC proper 3am - 11 am - snow 11 am - 3 pm - changeover to sleet around 11 am or so. 3 pm until midday friday - light mixed precip...maybe a flip back to light snow Friday morning 3-5" 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 ~0.4” QPF from 11-13z at DCA on the 18z 3k NAM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Earlier start on the NAM. looks like 3/4AM for all the talk of sleet...there isnt much of it. I get sleet for maybe an hour and then the main part of the storm ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: for all the talk of sleet...there isnt much of it. I get sleet for maybe an hour and then the main part of the storm ends Not much to love on the models today... unless we trust the Para 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12k is a beast. 0.5 QPF before sleet for DC. Love it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 29.5/10.8 here Glen Arm (21057) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18Z NAM coming in snowier for the cities vs 12Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'd say that's a NAM'ing. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I rented a house on the Rappahannock next week. Hoping the nasty ice down there doesnt knock out power for an extended time period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Not much to love on the models today... unless we trust the Para trust, no. Hug, yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Quasievil said: I'd say that's a NAM'ing. I'd say its a lot of sleet... I hate the TT NAM maps 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: I'd say its a lot of sleet... I hate the TT NAM maps It's 5 inches for DC before sleet, it's pretty much the best case scenario. The heavy precip doesn't even stick around for that long after the changeover anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: ~0.4” QPF from 11-13z at DCA on the 18z 3k NAM Soundings are so tight. At 8 am tomorrow morning, I'd much rather be at Randy's house than say Old Town. by 10 am, total capitulation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: It's 5 inches for DC before sleet, it's pretty much the best case scenario. The heavy precip doesn't even stick around for that long after the changeover anyway. Exactly. By the time it starts sleeting, we've got a comfortable snow pack. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 So both NAMs came in snowier... maybe the start of a good last minute trend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Soundings are so tight. At 8 am tomorrow morning, I'd much rather be at Randy's house than say Old Town. by 10 am, total capitulation. If the NAM is right though we ride that line, keep the heavies going until the flip and then it's basically zip outta here quick anyway. But yeah, like you said, really close on those soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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