Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: It comes in hard but it flips fast. It's basically the storm we've had 2 or 3 other times this year. Hopefully, we can keep the mix line south longer, but there is a definite trend on guidance to bring it north and bring it faster. I hear you but I dont remember a storm being as potentially heavy in soon as it starts like this one yet this year though...assuming it doesnt end up drier than modeled 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR is a little on the edge of its "range" but it would resolve the higher rates and the possible dynamic cooling offsetting the warm advection aloft better than some of the coarser guidance so it might be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 You all can party while I sit in the dark without power, and .5” of ice outside. I’m concerned for this one down here. Too soon to a few days ago for it to happen again. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: It comes in hard but it flips fast. It's basically the storm we've had 2 or 3 other times this year. Hopefully, we can keep the mix line south longer, but there is a definite trend on guidance to bring it north and bring it faster. I'm not sure I entirely agree with this - at least for MBY. I haven't ever hit (this year) those illusive 1-2 inch an hour rates (even for a short time). Even if the mix line comes in fast, this seems like it will be less "splotchy" and less spaced out than prior events. More precip in a shorter period of time than past events. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: That would be one of the radar looks of storms where we're unsure if the yellows/oranges are sleet or blinding snow, but where it would still be an absolute precip blitz. Shades of Feb 20 2015 in that.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: it's not even a city really - it's just an unincorporated part of western Henrico County near Richmond. It's like Seven Corners (Ffx County) or something showing up on a map. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Oh man. That back end band means business though. I hate having to depend on that for a big hit though. But it is sweet out here Tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 This time it’s sunny beforehand . Good strong well located high and not some too Far East high already moistening up and we were cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: That would be one of the radar looks of storms where we're unsure if the yellows/oranges are sleet or blinding snow, but where it would still be an absolute precip blitz. Shades of Feb 20 2015 in that.. I believe the Bob Chillian term is Snow missiles, white asteroids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Hasn't the HRRR been less impressed with past storms right before they started? Having it be much more bullish now has to be a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Glad we have consensus like 24 hours away. All bases covered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, mappy said: I believe it's because Short Pump is an odd city to have show up on a modeled map. Someone, no idea who, made a joke about Short Pump not getting something, and its gone from there. As it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Hasn't the HRRR been less impressed with past storms right before they started? Having it be much more bullish now has to be a good thing usually when someone refers to the HRRR-it sounds like "If you like snow, dont look at the HRRR" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Probably too much HRRRRRRR talk but this is the worst sounding for the initial storm and it is after all the goods have moved through. To my weenie eyes, its below freezing or right at zero all the way up for the duration. The first sounding is niiice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: usually when someone refers to the HRRR-it sounds like "If you like snow, dont look at the HRRR" HRRR nailed the storm last Thursday in this area FWIW. Was the first thing advertising 4-6". I like having it on our side in the short-range, it's done really well this winter as far as I can recall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, mappy said: I believe it's because Short Pump is an odd city to have show up on a modeled map. Someone, no idea who, made a joke about Short Pump not getting something, and its gone from there. It also has a lot to do with the name. That's how it originally started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: it's not even a city really - it's just an unincorporated part of western Henrico County near Richmond. It's like Seven Corners (Ffx County) or something showing up on a map. It’s basically a nice outdoor mall, with new apartment communities built around it. Also, a lot of diversity there, by Richmond standards. Think Columbia Maryland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, EHoffman said: And then 14z too holy god what a pounding. Unless you live right here! Oh wait, that's me! #sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 36/19 30.28 National Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: HRRR nailed the storm last Thursday in this area FWIW. Was the first thing advertising 4-6". I like having it on our side in the short-range, it's done really well this winter as far as I can recall. It tends to overdo cold past something like 36hrs, but within then it seems pretty grounded. Even the snow depth panel is ~3-5" for DC and points SW, which is pretty bullish for those types of panels. In the Dec 16-17 event, it initially went out of the gate being way too cold during WAA snow timeframe, but within 30hrs it continued to advertise that the initial thump would impact DC and immediate NW areas, while the NAM was still eroding the mid level cold much faster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Been nervous about posting these for well... a long time. But here's my best guess: I think this looks great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Let's discuss nowcasting. The radar in the deep south isn't what was modeled, correct? That will have an affect as models consume that info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 27, Mostly Sunny. Snow pack still hanging on 30/12 here. I'd say I've still got 50-60% snow cover going on, though its a slushy muddy mess out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Temps around Charlottesville are busting 4-5 degrees below forecast. High was supposed to be 40 here. CHO hit 36, UVA Main Campus 35. Currently 34/14 EDIT: Might've spoken too soon. CHO up to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 LWX updated their maps... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 43 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I agree that there's opportunity there. In fairness though, IBM does have a model (which we laugh at) and they are a leading supercomputer manufacturer. I think part of the problem may be data acquisition for model input. NWS has a large network to gather data that would be really expensive to replicate. I'm not sure that data is all readily accessible. The old data adage "garbage in, garbage out" is very accurate. So even if IBM or Musk could build an epic supercomputer and program top-notch physics into it, the model would still be crap without good data. That’s why outcome analogs should be the method and not theoretical physics. Very good data since 1960. 60 years. Let’s say there are 3 Miller As per season, 180 sample size. Break those 180 down to 1. The low passes within 30 miles of Atlanta. 2. The low is more than 30 miles north of Atlanta 3. The low is more than 30 miles south of Atlanta then overlay that with 1.The high is 30.30 or higher 12 hours before onset 2.The high is lower than 30.30 You will get a decent sample set of 10-20 matching outcomes in each category. No wailing about sample size, the outcomes are what they are When you take #1 on the storm and #1 on the high and 20 instances arise and 15 times DC got 3” or more then there is your model replacement When you take #2 and #2 and 22 instances match and 16 times DC got rain then there is your new and improved, outcome based, non model forecasting. The will is not there mostly due to entrenched commitment to status quo and embedded money issues. i promised you all I had a solution and not just bitching. Let the naysay begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Busting high in Pasadena... 34 forecasted. Currently 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 34/13 Mostly sunny hope we can keep clears skies till after sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Unless you live right here! Oh wait, that's me! #sleet Hey yo what the...I think Baltimore City has all three colors!! How, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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