EHoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, NovaWahoo said: Between model run question inspired by the IBM model posts before. Are all the major models entirely government-funded models? If so, it does seem to me that there should be market incentive to push the limits on modeling. For gov't purposes it may be sufficient to give people a 24-48 hour warning of inclement weather, allow preparations to be made to protect life and property, and make sure you have the salt trucks and plows deployed in the right places (and erring on the side of caution here is no big deal). But if I've got billions invested and it's going to be affected by ice or travel disruptions, I want to know 2 weeks ago. Science has limits and it may just be that there isn't much more that can be done. But if I was Elon Musk ... Seems to me the models already do a really good job at identifying regions which are in the crosshairs for potentially disruptive weather several days in advance. I know we get upset because the models can't pinpoint banding and warm layers far in advance but for the purpose of emergency planning they are a fantastic tool that are always being improved. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Models aren’t going to be able to forecast with the kind of precision some desire. About 2” on snow and about 0.25” on precip is about the best you can expect IMO. Temps probably 2-5°. We are really at the point now of radar and sat watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If the PARA doesn't back down, I guess tomorrow will test its chops vs the GFS. World of difference The para has been like a bully about giving DCA 8-12"... It just won't back down. Would be an EPIC coup if it wins. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: The Icon looks a lot like the Euro to me. Definitely not like the Para. Thanks, friend. I wasn't being serious, but appreciate you posting it all the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Seems to me the models already do a really good job at identifying regions which are in the crosshairs for potentially disruptive weather several days in advance. I know we get upset because the models can't pinpoint banding and warm layers far in advance but for the purpose of emergency planning they are a fantastic tool that are always being improved. Totally agree. They are tremendous being able to tell us weather is coming. Amazing actually. And in the scheme of things is there really that much difference between 3” of snow or 6”. No there isn’t. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Thanks, friend. I wasn't being serious, but appreciate you posting it all the same. I thought so, but we haven't really been talking about the ICON so I wasn't sure. That's actually the first I've looked at the ICON this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Arkadelphia getting blasted now...what model had that? And can someone help Arkansas get some original names for their cities? I always want to see how areas before us perform to see if they over or underperform to get a small gauge on potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: I thought so, but we haven't really been talking about the ICON so I wasn't sure. That's actually the first I've looked at the ICON this storm Well the ICON has far out performed the others and I will argue that with anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Totally agree. They are tremendous being able to tell us weather is coming. Amazing actually. And in the scheme of things is there really that much difference between 3” of snow or 6”. No there isn’t. Yeah I mean look at the soundings for tomorrow morning... most of the profiles have a warm nose that is within about 1 degree (on either side depending on the model) of the 0C line. That will obviously make the difference between sleet and snow, you can't realistically expect any guidance to be good enough to resolve that even a few hours out. much less 24+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CWG updated forecast looks pretty decent to me although their "boom" range increased. I know they like to make their regions sort of "elegantly curved", but it always makes me a little twitchy that it doesn't align with the Fall Line. I’m riding my local on the 8’s I just spied on the Weather Channel. 5-8”!? Ok WC. Go off! And screw you Euro!! Eta: probably better in banter. Sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well the ICON has far out performed the others and I will argue that with anybody. Just want to see your argument because it has been pretty good this winter could you put it in the banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Just want to see your argument because it has been pretty good this winter could you put it in the banter thread? All I would do is post maps. Don’t know about all winter but it was the first one on board with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said: Between model run question inspired by the IBM model posts before. Are all the major models entirely government-funded models? If so, it does seem to me that there should be market incentive to push the limits on modeling. For gov't purposes it may be sufficient to give people a 24-48 hour warning of inclement weather, allow preparations to be made to protect life and property, and make sure you have the salt trucks and plows deployed in the right places (and erring on the side of caution here is no big deal). But if I've got billions invested and it's going to be affected by ice or travel disruptions, I want to know 2 weeks ago. Science has limits and it may just be that there isn't much more that can be done. But if I was Elon Musk ... I agree that there's opportunity there. In fairness though, IBM does have a model (which we laugh at) and they are a leading supercomputer manufacturer. I think part of the problem may be data acquisition for model input. NWS has a large network to gather data that would be really expensive to replicate. I'm not sure that data is all readily accessible. The old data adage "garbage in, garbage out" is very accurate. So even if IBM or Musk could build an epic supercomputer and program top-notch physics into it, the model would still be crap without good data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Pre-dawn start and cold low-levels will help, but that warm nose is gonna be a bitch. 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just look at the radar on the Gulf Coast and look at your current temps. Now look at what is happening in TX and realize you are all going to get hit tonight and tomorrow with a high impact winter storm. Are we getting feet of snow? Nope. But we are all getting hit. We'll unless you are in Short Pump that is. 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m045400 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Well, looks like I'll have to take my ice and sit in the corner and color down here in SoMD. Probably in the dark too since we lose power here when a butterfly has gas. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Just look at the radar on the Gulf Coast and look at your current temps. Now look at what is happening in TX and realize you are all going to get hit tonight and tomorrow with a high impact winter storm. Are we getting feet of snow? Nope. But we are all getting hit. We'll unless you are in Short Pump that is. I got here too late for this inside joke. May I somewhat ruin it by asking what the hell it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I got here too late for this inside joke. May I somewhat ruin it by asking what the hell it is? I believe it's because Short Pump is an odd city to have show up on a modeled map. Someone, no idea who, made a joke about Short Pump not getting something, and its gone from there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Pre-dawn start and cold low-levels will help, but that warm nose is gonna be a bitch. Great map! What are your thoughts for how bad the icing threat will be to the south and east of 95? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Um yes HRRR please. Crazy heavy snow band right over baltimore at 13z 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Um yes HRRR please. Crazy heavy snow band right over baltimore at 13z Can you start including Winchester in your model analysis? Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Pre-dawn start and cold low-levels will help, but that warm nose is gonna be a bitch. Looks good to me. However, I would love to see Fuchsia over my location at some point in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, MDstorm said: Looks good to me. However, I would love to see Fuchsia over my location at some point in life. Mark has put out many many snow maps and he’s usually great. But I swear I’ve been in the 6-8 range on every single one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Um yes HRRR please. Crazy heavy snow band right over baltimore at 13z Holy hell that panel is absolutely beautiful. Death band from DC to Baltimore 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Holy hell that panel is absolutely beautiful. Death band from DC to Baltimore And then 14z too holy god what a pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR is going to make a lot of friends. Snowy through the morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Holy hell that panel is absolutely beautiful. Death band from DC to Baltimore Yeah its not quite as weenie as 12z because the sleet comes in faster...but those 2-3 hours, its gangbusters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Been nervous about posting these for well... a long time. But here's my best guess: 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, mappy said: I believe it's because Short Pump is an odd city to have show up on a modeled map. Someone, no idea who, made a joke about Short Pump not getting something, and its gone from there. it's not even a city really - it's just an unincorporated part of western Henrico County near Richmond. It's like Seven Corners (Ffx County) or something showing up on a map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, SnowDreamer said: Been nervous about posting these for well... a long time. But here's my best guess: Looks very reasonable to me. I hope it verifies! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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