Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Warm Nose said: I'm not worried. I'm colder than progged, there's moisture on the way and I'm in an area that historically does better with storms. I am right against the BR so typically we get some mixing albeit much less than the metros. I expect nothing different this time around. 4" is my bar with some crunchy ice on top as the finisher. Sounds good....2" is my bar with crunchy ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Quasievil said: I really don't understand this warm layer on the RGEM. With 700 and 850's warm, this explains why the RGEM is holding back on totals. This will be the time it gets it right. Where my 40" from a few weeks ago? Stop over analyzing the RGEM. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: In fairness to the GFS, every model was showing that to some degree. Your point still stands tho Exactly. CMC, EURO, all had a GL low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Stop over analyzing the RGEM. lol HA! Fair point. This year at least, the RGEM has been spitting out these ridiculous snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: In fairness to the GFS, every model was showing that to some degree. Your point still stands tho None of them hung onto that low up the west side of the apps all the way to Canada like the gfs did though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6z Euro precip (don't think it ever got posted) prior to the 12z run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12Z HREF ensemble mean through Thursday at 7:00 p.m. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I just took a look at the Para Euro from last night. A little drier but a little colder than the 6z op this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 What would be a 2021 storm without some sort of rug pull for DC. I guess I better get the generator out. Go para! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 12Z HREF ensemble mean through Thursday at 7:00 p.m. Looks like it fits my thoughts fairly well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Fwiw I have a feeling this could be a rare positive bust in DC. 9 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The key is getting that initial band in hot and heavy. But that’s a typical MO got juiced up gulf systems with cold on top so you get WAA way out ahead. If that gets in early and starts thumping...dynamic cooling takes over and DC can pile up a respectable total quick before they lose the column. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12z IBM GRAF 4KM - https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1362080627659575300 1 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, griteater said: 12z IBM GRAF 4KM - https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1362080627659575300 Short pump fringed - toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z IBM GRAF 4KM - https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1362080627659575300 I cant believe these news outlets pay for these pieces of crap lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: I cant believe these news outlets pay for these pieces of crap lol I think apparently it did really well with the December event showing the Binghamton jack? But yeah, I'm not sure if I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I think apparently it did really well with the December event showing the Binghamton jack? But yeah, I'm not sure if I buy it. You will be buying it by tomorrow night. You heard it here first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 radar down near Houston looking mighty fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I cant believe these news outlets pay for these pieces of crap lol 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I think apparently it did really well with the December event showing the Binghamton jack? But yeah, I'm not sure if I buy it. We have no idea how they clown map is generated. If for example, it counts ice as snow like TT does then it’s pretty much in line with everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Para is king of weenie town, other models converging on 2-4" for DCA, plus an inch of sleet or so. The sleet has a nice effect of moving overall totals closer together. Models with 4" snow have less sleet, CMC has 2" of sleet on top of that snow. 26 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 ^that's actually a decent chart and I hope you do these for future events 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Para is king of weenie town, other models converging on 2-4" for DCA, plus an inch of sleet or so. The sleet has a nice effect of moving overall totals closer together. Models with 4" snow have less sleet, CMC has 2" of sleet on top of that snow. This is the best stat I think I’ve ever seen on these forums. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I cant believe these news outlets pay for these pieces of crap lol Looks like a 10:1 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Para is king of weenie town, other models converging on 2-4" for DCA, plus an inch of sleet or so. The sleet has a nice effect of moving overall totals closer together. Models with 4" snow have less sleet, CMC has 2" of sleet on top of that snow. Do you go back and do a horizontal line with the actual once the event is over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Para is king of weenie town, other models converging on 2-4" for DCA, plus an inch of sleet or so. The sleet has a nice effect of moving overall totals closer together. Models with 4" snow have less sleet, CMC has 2" of sleet on top of that snow. Seems pretty clear we are heading for a 4-6 event give or take depending on your locale. Which honestly is probably close to what will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Para is king of weenie town, other models converging on 2-4" for DCA, plus an inch of sleet or so. The sleet has a nice effect of moving overall totals closer together. Models with 4" snow have less sleet, CMC has 2" of sleet on top of that snow. Seems like the mean has been 2-4 for some time. Gotta wonder if some pros just take this and run because can it really be that much worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Seems like the mean has been 2-4 for some time. Gotta wonder if some pros just take this and run because can it really be that much worse? Despite how wet they are, SREFs have been sitting at around 3 inches of snow at BWI. Seems like a red flag on big snow hopes to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Seems like the mean has been 2-4 for some time. Gotta wonder if some pros just take this and run because can it really be that much worse? Hasn't the mean been between 4-6 for the last 60+ hours? Or are my eyes failing me? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Despite how wet they are, SREFs have been sitting at around 3 inches of snow at BWI. Seems like a red flag on big snow hopes to me. Agree. Being conservative is the right approach here. We've simply failed too many times to expect anything different., EDIT: I would love to be wrong about this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 51 minutes ago, mappy said: To you. That's the key. Many haven't seen more than 2" during any event this year, calling them fools for finding another event where they have to hope for a decent front end thump before a flip to sleet, is just not cool man. Ok. I respect your opinion. I’ll leave it at that. I don’t get personal over weather, sorry. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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