osfan24 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 GFS is warm. Appears to have caved to the warmer solutions. HRRR out there on an island it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Yeoman said: After how this season has gone, anyone who buys these forecasts as gospel is a bigger fool Check his location. He lives in Maryland's version of Tug Hill. He is happy for location specific reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 GFS sticks with the 2 part idea. More ice with the second part this run. Goes through Friday morning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: GFS is warm. Appears to have caved to the warmer solutions. HRRR out there on an island it appears. It's about the same as 6z. Nice 6hr snow thump for cities before mixing drops 3-5". Then a little snow on the backend Friday. I'd take it. Far N/W folks probably won't like it because it's drier there as they're between bands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'm really blown away by the lingering discrepancies with precip later in the day Thursday into the overnight. The NAM (and NAM nest) continue to have only light precip over much of the area with perhaps a bit more for eastern sections (where some significant ice may fall over southern MD and parts of the Eastern Shore) area The GFS, however is so much wetter and has some big ice accumulations for a lot of folks: The GFS para looks much like the ops does. The CAMs overall favor drier solutions, although the NMMB is a bit wetter. I'm struggling to sort this out.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM 850s GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 GFS and Para hold serve with 3-6 inches for the cities before sleet and then freezing rain. Still printing out over an inch of frozen qpf with temps in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Expecting models to nail a warm layer to a single degree or even two seems to be a stretch of capability. Just an opinion. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: The GFS para looks much like the ops does. The CAMs overall favor drier solutions, although the NMMB is a bit wetter. And the Never Much Moisture model (NMMB) is typically the driest of them all. It is interesting the difference between CAMs and globals though, in terms of QPF on wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Para is a weenie run for the I-95 corridor. Thumped in the morning, just light sleet during the mix period, and then bullseye with snow on the 2nd wave/backend idea. 13 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Pretty massive differences out this way between the GFS and the PARA. Especially with the second part of the storm. Para is snow. GFS is ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Expecting models to nail a warm layer to a single degree or even two seems to be a stretch of capability. Just an opinion. Just coming to post this. Here is the sounding at 27. If its off a half a degree either way could mean an extra inch or two and nothing but sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The GFS is almost 1.5” QPF at DCA, all frozen. That is an amazing model run, even if it is only some front end snow. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: The GFS is almost 1.5” QPF at DCA, all frozen. That is an amazing model run, even if it is only some front end snow. In range if I'm not mistaken, GFS tends to dry up a bit, so this is nice to see. It's been a while since we've had any sort of system like that stay frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS is almost 1.5” QPF at DCA, all frozen. That is an amazing model run, even if it is only some front end snow. Yeah it's not much snow but is a very impactful storm. Lots of ice on top of the snow and makes it a 24 hour plus storm. Para looks great and seems to have been pretty steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Nice to see the Para back on WB. 7 1 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Nice to see the Para back on WB. I think the snow totals out here seem high. Not sold that there will be enough moisture for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nice to se the Para back on WB. You would think we could rely on the para to be a top tier performer by now. Hope so looking at that output. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It’s mid levels yes but there is usually a mid level warm layer when we have a storm. I’m going to simplify this but I feel it’s an accurate summary. There almost has to be a warm layer because it’s WAA as the wave approaches that is the primary impetus for precip. The warm air is lifted over the denser cold and that lift creates the precip. But warm is relative to normally very cold air at those levels. Rising air cools and condenses so it’s cooling as it rises. So long as that mid level “warm” layer stays just below freezing it’s ok. But what happens if EVERYTHING is say 2 degrees warmer then it used to be? Then a “warm” layer that was -1 is now +1 and the mix line just jumped 50 miles north! great explanation! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Can someone please post the WB for the regular GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Looks like 18+ straight hours of ice near I-95 on top of a few quick inches of snow. If that verifies, yikes. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 That second wave is worth watching. Pretty nice on the Para, but it could possibly evolve into something a little more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said: Looks like 18+ straight hours of ice near I-95 on top of a few quick inches of snow. If that verifies, yikes. Ice palace. Having ZR/IP fall at night without significant warm air punching north is a recipe for 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, EB89 said: Can someone please post the WB for the regular GFS? I think this precip distribution map smooths things out, but it's still a useful tool for overall ptypes. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r3w Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, high risk said: I'm really blown away by the lingering discrepancies with precip later in the day Thursday into the overnight. The NAM (and NAM nest) continue to have only light precip over much of the area with perhaps a bit more for eastern sections (where some significant ice may fall over southern MD and parts of the Eastern Shore) area The GFS, however is so much wetter and has some big ice accumulations for a lot of folks: The GFS para looks much like the ops does. The CAMs overall favor drier solutions, although the NMMB is a bit wetter. I'm struggling to sort this out.... Sounds a lot like how the recent storms have come in. This was after the snow from the 7th, its been much of the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS is almost 1.5” QPF at DCA, all frozen. That is an amazing model run, even if it is only some front end snow. would be crippling ice if that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nice to see the Para back on WB. Would you be able to post this same map through 30 hours ? Interested to see what it shows after the first wave of precip moves away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Regular GFS accumulation plots with numbers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: Would you be able to post this same map through 30 hours ? Interested to see what it shows after the first wave of precip moves away. This captures the initial thump pretty well. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Para looking a lot like the old FV3 did a ways back... so weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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