Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 23z HRRR has precip getting to DC between 4-5a. Here’s the sounding at 8a which is super close...and check out the lift in the DGZ! Sleet line looks to dissect/bounce around DC mid morning. Should be a fun few hours. HRRR is pretty killer for DC. Flirts and probably sleet mixes in, but basically holds the column until 11 or Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28/18 La Plata Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDSnowyWxTracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28/12 in Urbana. Partly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 27/12. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 25/14... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: HRRR is pretty killer for DC. Flirts and probably sleet mixes in, but basically holds the column until 11 or Noon. I love how its not 0.1” QPF over 6 hours either...looks to come in hot and heavy. It’ll be a fun morning. Good luck out there...you’re in a good spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 34 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Problem with the euro is you dont get access to soundings, and the warm nose is in between the levels available. It’s annoying but you can use the other guidance wrt how far north of the h85 and h7 they get the warm layers to make an educated guess. You will get close enough that whatever minor error the model isn’t likely to be that accurate anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I like the insurance policy on frozen precipitation. ZR isnt happening. So even if I only get .10 as snow, I'll get another .6-.8 as sleet. And it's going to pound at times. I have little concern with this storm. Gulf lows are easier on the nerves in general too 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorgitoWX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 27/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Little Rock has a snow depth of 14 inches so my bar for this storm just became 14 inches. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Hey it’s actually in the 20s before a storm! 29/16. It's amazing, right? I forgot how it feels not worry about surface temps before a storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This was my write up on my weather site...not going to post the images, you can pull those. Now that we’re about ~10 hours or so away from snow falling, the HRRR short range model is out to use as guidance. Pictured I have is when snow begins for the majority of the area which is around 6am and then when it generally gets the heaviest around 9am. Also pictured is the accumulation map thru noon. Generally the area has 3-4” inches of snow by noon and then sleet becomes much more likely especially around I 95 and the cities. I believe this is a solid call and generally is what most of the data is showing. So at this point, I expect snow to break out area wide between about 5-6am and get heaviest from 8-11am. That is when we will add the most accumulation so good idea to not be traveling during those hours. Then by lunchtime sleet becomes more likely followed by light sleet and/or freezing rain for the afternoon and evening with some ice accumulation possible. A general 2-5” for most is a solid call i believe with the most just north and west of I 95 where maybe a few folks could attain 6” if sleet holds off. Be safe tomorrow, whatever does fall will slop up the roads as temps should remain below 30 for the majority if not all of the day. Friday should be better but need to analyze if any backend snow or ice potential is there for Friday morning still. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bel Air Wx Project Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26/11 Bel Air North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: HRRR is pretty killer for DC. Flirts and probably sleet mixes in, but basically holds the column until 11 or Noon. So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I know it’s the hrrrr but I don’t hate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDRandy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 30/13 SE Charm City 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Hey y'all. I know yesterday I promised a map for the storm, but I got called into work today as another winter threat trended north right back into my neck of the woods. I haven't been able to look at much, but I do think there will be a decent snow for areas north of I-66. 3-6" with locally higher over NoVA west of DC, 1-4" for areas south of DC and 1-4" for inside the Capital Beltway. 3-6" line will extend NE through MoCo up to I-70. I like 4-8" with local to 10" for north of I-70 and out west of US15. Sleet will bomb areas south and east of US15. It's going to be a wintry scene for the area. I'll be following along a bit when I can, but I'll be in tomorrow for our own storm where 2-4" with locally more are possible due to convective snow elements. Good luck to all and enjoy the snow 10 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: From my experience as an observer, the I-81 crew does really well when they're on the western periphery of the good modeled QPF. And usually get in a really good secondary band I know someone else... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong... The 0 temp line is dashed in the middle, the red/green lines are temp and dew as you move down the atmosphere to the surface. Heights is along the left, temp along the bottom. When the red crosses the 0 dashed line, precip is rain and depending where in that column it happens, is when you get different precip types. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey y'all. I know yesterday I promised a map for the storm, but I got called into work today as another winter threat trended north right back into my neck of the woods. I haven't been able to look at much, but I do think there will be a decent snow for areas north of I-66. 3-6" with locally higher over NoVA west of DC, 1-4" for areas south of DC and 1-4" for inside the Capital Beltway. 3-6" line will extend NE through MoCo up to I-70. I like 4-8" with local to 10" for north of I-70 and out west of US15. Sleet will bomb areas south and east of US15. It's going to be a wintry scene for the area. I'll be following along a bit when I can, but I'll be in tomorrow for our own storm where 2-4" with locally more are possible due to convective snow elements. Good luck to all and enjoy the snow That band in south TX tomorrow is simply incredible. Must be quite an event for y'all down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 27/15 and Clear Skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: The 0 temp line is dashed in the middle, the red/green lines are temp and dew as you move down the atmosphere to the surface. Heights is along the left, temp along the bottom. When the red crosses the 0 dashed line, precip is rain and depending where in that column it happens, is when you get different precip types. What about the purple dotted line? Isn't that the precip vs. temps as you rise through the atmosphere? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: That band in south TX tomorrow is simply incredible. Must be quite an event for y'all down there. It's been pretty insane. I'll have to recap everything at some point. It's historic in many aspects for my area. I'm out in west TX btw, between Abilene and El Paso! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: What about the purple dotted line? Isn't that the precip vs. temps as you rise through the atmosphere? Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 PZF updated to 6-10”! LFG! Hope snow comes in like a wall and everybody cashes in on a solid 3-6” before we even mention the word “mix” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29/12 at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. I believe it's the environment a parcel would experience as it travels through the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The short range models at 18z have been abysmal with what has transpired in western Tennessee and Kentucky. Their radar presentation isn’t close to reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. Okay so per the sounding above, that would be sleet FZR? Because they saturate the column pretty far into above freezing territory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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