Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good to see you back. I dunno about the Monmouth comp.  There is some degree of bad luck here. Not denying that.  So your point isn’t totally wrong. But able averages across that country range from about 24-28” in most places.  I grew up in NJ. I would choose that area over DC or Balt for snow 9/10 times. 

DCs snow climo is similar to along the pink/orange line and Baltimore’s is closer to somewhere in the northern side of the Orange zone.  Those areas haven’t been doing that good wrt snow recently either.  Same sharp cutoff there too!

 

I grew up in South Jersey and recall the occasional big coastals that were usually very wet, being 30 or so miles from the beach. They must account for, in my mind, the higher average snowfall amounts mentioned above for my county that surprises me. But my memory may be failing me.

 

[southmdwatcher]

No doubt the GFS has it's issues, just hoping this isn't the January 25 2000 ice version incoming. The freezing mist and scattered heavier precip will be enough of an issue.

[ThePhotoGuy]

Freezing Drizzle. 28.4 degrees.

[wolfpackwxDC]

Great, 28 and freezing mist. The roads generally look good, so I hope it holds. I need daycare to be open tomorrow - can't do this another day...

[rjvanals]

15 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

It didn't seem like a banding issue to me. This was all directed straight up I-95, and yes, its sleet, but its pretty juicy.

 

Meanwhile this same band hit up in Mon County, and spots there are reporting 9 inches of fresh snow tonight.

They have the same climo as down here basically. So they have 40 inches on the year, and here we have about 6 inches? That to me is just awful luck. That 40 inches on the season represents to me what DC/Baltimore could have had this year had things "gone a little different".

 

DC has been running real bad recently which is probably just terrible luck: 

2/7 - storm was supposed to some in at 4 AM but was slightly delayed; this allowed us to torch  the day before and caused the best snow to come in just after sunrise. This combined w the prior days torch caused white rain which had it come at 4 am would’ve been 3-4 inches 

2-10- DC missed 3-4 inches by being ~20 miles to far south due to storm track; bad luck 

2-12- DC misses 3-4 inches by being ~ 25 miles to far north due to storm track again; bad luck 

2-17- initial wave isn’t strong enough to dislodge the shallow warm layer and the column is off by 1-2 degrees at 6-8K causing the sleet storm; DC misses 4-6 

Get just 2 of these storms to hit, I’d be much happier 

[clskinsfan]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not in January we didn’t.

OKV doesnt keep precip totals. But I had 2.15 inches in January. That is 20 inches of snow with decent temps.

[Eskimo Joe]

Freezing drizzle in Reisterstown at 27 degrees. Everything is quickly getting encased.

[RevWarReenactor]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

DC has been running real bad recently which is probably just terrible luck: 

2/7 - storm was supposed to some in at 4 AM but was slightly delayed; this allowed us to torch  the day before and caused the best snow to come in just after sunrise. This combined w the prior days torch caused white rain which had it come at 4 am would’ve been 3-4 inches 

2-10- DC missed 3-4 inches by being ~20 miles to far south due to storm track; bad luck 

2-12- DC misses 3-4 inches by being ~ 25 miles to far north due to storm track again; bad luck 

2-17- initial wave isn’t strong enough to dislodge the shallow warm layer and the column is off by 1-2 degrees at 6-8K causing the sleet storm; DC misses 4-6 

Get just 2 of these storms to hit, I’d be much happier 

Yeah, Good summary of the fail.

[paxpatriot]

This freezing drizzle is for real. Almost died walking out to get the dog. Have to believe the roads are treacherous.

[nw baltimore wx]

Wow. I’ll echo the obs that it’s nasty out. Freezing drizzle and the pea gravel that fell earlier is now concrete.

[weatherCCB]

Nasty freezing mist 

if this keeps up till morning it will be an ice rink outside

28/25. 1.7” of sleet

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

OKV doesnt keep precip totals. But I had 2.15 inches in January. That is 20 inches of snow with decent temps.

Jim’s Weather Station located very near the airport (you may have seen his site) recorded 1.70 inches in Jan with 0.85 coming on New Years Day in that freezing rain/rain event. He has us at 1.9 for this month. Granted there will be discrepancies around the county but that Jan amount just shows what I always say here. Precip is the issue. January wasn’t warm. It was plenty cold enough for some snow.

[southmdwatcher]

Radar from Charleston WV and Blacksburg is confirming a developing light precipitation shield regionwide with scattered heavier spots

[Kmlwx]

Non-weather enthusiasts better stay inside. I fear that people may look out, see what looks like their clear wakways and take a spill.

Radar still showing plenty of light returns over the metro area. 

[MN Transplant]

28.2 and freezing drizzle.  Nasty.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

You beat me by 0.8”! 
 

Actually, that sounding looked exactly as predicted by the models yesterday afternoon. I checked... maybe even better since IAD sounding was actually drier in the warm layer. Figured that would easily wet bulb below freezing for our snow thump. Obviously that didn’t work out.

I slantsticked my typing. Lol. 1.6" is the right amt. It's really unusual out there. My grass is almost covered in the back and it looks like snow. But you can walk of top of it and not leave footprints at all. I suppose feb 07 was just like that at some point. Legit concrete glacier. 

[poolz1]

4.5" snow today with about .2" sleet.

Freezing drizzle currently. 27/25

Fun few hours this morning with great rates and flake structure.  Ended up below my 6" bar but a fun, quick storm nonetheless.

Let's do a real deal, forum wide bowling ball in March!   

[Wetbulbs88]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Non-weather enthusiasts better stay inside. I fear that people may look out, see what looks like their clear wakways and take a spill.

Radar still showing plenty of light returns over the metro area. 

Just took the pups out for a very long walk. Still some slush, especially in the deeper puddles, but shallower pools are freezing fast. If I hadn't been wearing my hiking boots which have good grip it would've been a back breaker. One guy was shoveling his sidewalk, and I don't think he realized he was only making it worse; there was already a significant layer of ice forming in place of the sleet. 

[Stormfly]

25/25, Freezing mist.  Can see the ultrasonic anemometer housing nicely encased in ice via surveillance PTZ.  Would not want to walk around on this!  Treated roads probably OK at these temps but black ice and steel plates and bridges - watch out!

[mappy]

Can confirm a freezing mist here too

[delgto04]

3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Just took the pups out for a very long walk. Still some slush, especially in the deeper puddles, but shallower pools are freezing fast. If I hadn't been wearing my hiking boots which have good grip it would've been a back breaker. One guy was shoveling his sidewalk, and I don't think he realized he was only making it worse; there was already a significant layer of ice forming in place of the sleet. 

Agreed. Many out shoveling today but don't realize that there is better traction just leaving it be. 

[Bob Chill]

I'm sure this was discussed but I just looked at the 18z gfs. Lol. Wtf. That's a bit absurd for a top 5 global wx model

[Ji]

I'm sure this was discussed but I just looked at the 18z gfs. Lol. Wtf. That's a bit absurd for a top 5 global wx model

The gfs likes to broadbrush precip similar to how the cpc likes to broadbrush temps for nina or nino winters

[Deck Pic]

31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

OKV doesnt keep precip totals. But I had 2.15 inches in January. That is 20 inches of snow with decent temps.

I've been looking at spotter reports for this area, and best I can tell, only January snow (other than 1/31) was 0.5" on 1/26.  I'm sure there were some dustings and 0.1's too.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

My neighborhood wasn’t plowed or salted and the roads are a literal sheet of ice now.  Got some nice freezing drizzle to cap the day off.  As much as this event was another snow fail at least it’s winter outside. 

[H2O]

Cars have a glaze so I assume stuff is falling

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

It didn't seem like a banding issue to me. This was all directed straight up I-95, and yes, its sleet, but its pretty juicy.

 

Meanwhile this same band hit up in Mon County, and spots there are reporting 9 inches of fresh snow tonight.

They have the same climo as down here basically. So they have 40 inches on the year, and here we have about 6 inches? That to me is just awful luck. That 40 inches on the season represents to me what DC/Baltimore could have had this year had things "gone a little different".

 

Good discussion. Also, that band hit too late after the column was wrecked. Look at the radar from 4am-8am. The heavy precip was all Winchester to Carroll County. That was the window for good snow along 95 and they were stuck in a dryslot.  By 9am when that band did finally get there the warm layer had taken over. Heavy precip earlier could also have helped mix out that layer and held it at bay longer.  But your point about bad luck is true. I think it’s some of both. 

[ravensrule]

This light freezing drizzle is making it way more slippery then I thought. It’s going to get treacherous out there if it lasts for a while. 

[WeatherShak]

Cars have a glaze so I assume stuff is falling

Have a 20oz ribeye on the Weber. Deck is a skate rink right now.


.

[WxUSAF]

Freezing drizzle is icing everything up. Untouched sleet covered driveways and sidewalks are just a solid glacier, can walk across without leaving a trail. Plowed surfaces are now skating rinks. Kids are missing out on a bunch of snow days.