gymengineer Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. Did you peak at the 18Z GFS? It still is showing 0.4”+ (!!) liquid for the DC area until tomorrow afternoon. And in the very short term, 0.1-0.2” liquid between 7 pm and 1 am. It’s all alone at this point. After the totality of everything this season, this is just another example of how degraded model performance has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Misting. About to get sporty on the roads out here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I mean… totally being a weenie here, but I can definitely see how this overperforms if we can manage to get a decent swath of moderate precip overhead overnight. Won’t take much. Also won’t take much to rip those chances to shreds. Sounds like a wait and see kind of deal. Shit.. if I can squeeze another 1.5” out of this to get me to double digits for the storm, I’ll weenie it out and rest my hopes on a presumed failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Freezing drizzle atm. Went out to fly my drone around and check things out and had to scratch the flight due to possible icing lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. Was watching ch 7 and they showed the HRRR which said precip overnight. This would be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Have freezing mist/fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Was watching ch 7 and they showed the HRRR which said precip overnight. This would be interesting Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now Same. Glad I shoveled but now things will get slick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door Careful...you're going to get pooped on by weenies now. "LET US BE MISERABLE." "HOW DARE YOU NOT BE UPSET" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Freezing fog and mist past three hours here at 26 degrees. Getting very slick. Rural roads are a mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: Freezing fog and mist past three hours here at 26 degrees. Getting very slick. Rural roads are a mess. Yes...pretty much impossible to walk around here...I tried, but almost bit it like 5 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Nothing super significant, but the radar does seem to have a lot of very light returns locally. Guessing it's all freezing mist/drizzle. Does seem to be a tiny bit of enhancement the past few frames. I'm using a sensitive color table in GR, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits. The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95. My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Sneaky freezing mist in Pasadena. Could surprise some in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Nothing super significant, but the radar does seem to have a lot of very light returns locally. Guessing it's all freezing mist/drizzle. Does seem to be a tiny bit of enhancement the past few frames. I'm using a sensitive color table in GR, though. That must be it. I popped legit light snow and was like WTF. Literally lasted 5 min. Then done. It was drizzle up to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Careful...you're going to get pooped on by weenies now. "LET US BE MISERABLE." "HOW DARE YOU NOT BE UPSET" One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits. The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95. My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. Wow. I'm at 10.75" for the year. It's amazing the difference over such a relatively short period. (Although I think I'm pushing close to 25-30" in forecasted snow, so I've got that going for me, which is nice...) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain. You beat me by 0.8”! Actually, that sounding looked exactly as predicted by the models yesterday afternoon. I checked... maybe even better since IAD sounding was actually drier in the warm layer. Figured that would easily wet bulb below freezing for our snow thump. Obviously that didn’t work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Yes...pretty much impossible to walk around here...I tried, but almost bit it like 5 times. It’s BAD here....freezing mist had coated everything in solid ice. No way I could get back up my 1/4 mile drive if I left. Cant even walk up it had to walk in the snow. Would have been better off leaving the 8” of crud all over it. Honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits. The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95. My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. Wow, yeah that’s nuts. Just under 16” as of today IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Seeing precip increase in the area on radar. Radar is seeing some as snow in northern Loudoun up into Maryland... anyone seeing anything other than drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain. Amen. My kids keep asking me, "when is it supposed to snow," or "how much is it supposed to snow." I tell them the weather isn't "supposed" to do anything. It just does what it does, and our ability to predict it with that level of precision just isn't something we can do. So, if you want to know the answer with 100% confidence, you need to open the blinds and watch and wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: It’s BAD here....freezing mist had coated everything in solid ice. No way I could get back up my 1/4 mile drive if I left. Cant even walk up it had to walk in the snow. Would have been better off leaving the 8” of crud all over it. Honestly. same...plowing has done nothing but make it impossible to walk, except in deep snow in which case big ice pieces fly into my ankles/shins with every step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29 here after a high of 30.8 That bottom layer was loose at 3pm but not now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Freezing drizzle in Montclair at 29 degrees and the sun setting. Going to be a skating rink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, The Dude said: Amen. My kids keep asking me, "when is it supposed to snow," or "how much is it supposed to snow." I tell them the weather isn't "supposed" to do anything. It just does what it does, and our ability to predict it with that level of precision just isn't something we can do. So, if you want to know the answer with 100% confidence, you need to open the blinds and watch and wait. If they like snow, they'll never digest your sage lesson. I haven't been able to do it in 48 years. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Nasty freezing mist had commenced in Round Hill. 26/24 Snowblowing done...beer time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Freezing drizzle in Montclair at 29 degrees and the sun setting. Going to be a skating rink Same here 26 now. Icy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just got in from a walk, ZR misting most of the walk. Really cold and nasty out; side roads and secondary roads still untouched but the main roads are generally just wet. Prob have like .75" of sleet down, not particularly pretty or anything. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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