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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. 

Did you peak at the 18Z GFS? It still is showing 0.4”+ (!!) liquid for the DC area until tomorrow afternoon. And in the very short term, 0.1-0.2” liquid between 7 pm and 1 am. It’s all alone at this point.

After the totality of everything this season, this is just another example of how degraded model performance has been. 

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I mean… totally being a weenie here, but I can definitely see how this overperforms if we can manage to get a decent swath of moderate precip overhead overnight. Won’t take much. Also won’t take much to rip those chances to shreds. Sounds like a wait and see kind of deal.  Shit.. if I can squeeze another 1.5” out of this to get me to double digits for the storm, I’ll weenie it out and rest my hopes on a presumed failure. :lol:

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8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. 

Was watching ch 7 and they showed the HRRR which said precip overnight. This would be interesting

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Just now, H2O said:

Was watching ch 7 and they showed the HRRR which said precip overnight. This would be interesting

Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Have already seen a little freezing mist/drizzle in the past half hour or so. Slight glaze on some of the bushes. Nothing significant thus far. Plow is stuck on our street right now

Same. Glad I shoveled but now things will get slick

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Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. 

I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door:lol:

 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. 

I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door:lol:

 

Careful...you're going to get pooped on by weenies now. 

"LET US BE MISERABLE." "HOW DARE YOU NOT BE UPSET"

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sounds ridiculous typing this but I'm actually glad (in some ways) that the snow didnt work out. Snow is very distracting and was busy af until just now. Barely looked out the window after 10am. 

I did measure 1.8 of whatever it was. What a dud of a winter in the close burbs. We'd have been better off with a nina SER door to door:lol:

 

I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits.  The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95.  My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Nothing super significant, but the radar does seem to have a lot of very light returns locally. Guessing it's all freezing mist/drizzle. Does seem to be a tiny bit of enhancement the past few frames. I'm using a sensitive color table in GR, though.

That must be it.  I popped legit light snow and was like WTF.  Literally lasted 5 min.  Then done.  It was drizzle up to that point. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Careful...you're going to get pooped on by weenies now. 

"LET US BE MISERABLE." "HOW DARE YOU NOT BE UPSET"

One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol

I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits.  The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95.  My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. 

Wow.  I'm at 10.75" for the year.  It's amazing the difference over such a relatively short period. 

(Although I think I'm pushing close to 25-30" in forecasted snow, so I've got that going for me, which is nice...)

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol

I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain. 

You beat me by 0.8”! 
 

Actually, that sounding looked exactly as predicted by the models yesterday afternoon. I checked... maybe even better since IAD sounding was actually drier in the warm layer. Figured that would easily wet bulb below freezing for our snow thump. Obviously that didn’t work out.

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5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Yes...pretty much impossible to walk around here...I tried, but almost bit it like 5 times.  

It’s BAD here....freezing mist had coated everything in solid ice. No way I could get back up my 1/4 mile drive if I left. Cant even walk up it had to walk in the snow. Would have been better off leaving the 8” of crud all over it. Honestly. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ll have to go back through my records but this might be the greatest disparity between my area and DCA/BWI ever. I’m at 45” now and very likely not done. I don’t think there was ever a 50”+ winter here that DC or BWI was in the single digits.  The thing is the results here match the pattern WAY better then the results along 95.  My opinion on what’s partially at play is well known. 

Wow, yeah that’s nuts. Just under 16” as of today IMBY.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

One of the biggest sources of legit stress and anxiety for many people is fretting things you have zero control over. To me it makes no sense to waste time/energy/emotions because weather didnt weather right. Or anything I have no control over. I just make the best of it and move on. Life is complicated enough without adding bad days because my digital snow got stolen. Lol

I didnt want to rock the boat last night but when MN posted the IAD sounding I quickly accepted all sleet is much more likely than good snow. Def wont be the first or last. Thing is, the exact same setup could hit next week and it would be all snow. Then again a week later and be all rain. 

Amen.  My kids keep asking me, "when is it supposed to snow," or "how much is it supposed to snow."  I tell them the weather isn't "supposed" to do anything.  It just does what it does, and our ability to predict it with that level of precision just isn't something we can do.  So, if you want to know the answer with 100% confidence, you need to open the blinds and watch and wait.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s BAD here....freezing mist had coated everything in solid ice. No way I could get back up my 1/4 mile drive if I left. Cant even walk up it had to walk in the snow. Would have been better off leaving the 8” of crud all over it. Honestly. 

same...plowing has done nothing but make it impossible to walk, except in deep snow in which case big ice pieces fly into my ankles/shins with every step.  

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Just now, The Dude said:

Amen.  My kids keep asking me, "when is it supposed to snow," or "how much is it supposed to snow."  I tell them the weather isn't "supposed" to do anything.  It just does what it does, and our ability to predict it with that level of precision just isn't something we can do.  So, if you want to know the answer with 100% confidence, you need to open the blinds and watch and wait.

If they like snow, they'll never digest your sage lesson. I haven't been able to do it in 48 years.  

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