clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Yup. Definitely nothing like usual. Very sandy and granular but it wasn't that heavy to push and shovel. Sandy is the perfect description. I might just break out the beach chair 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 was just out (bc i get antsy) and main roads weren't too bad, but parking lots/intersections were still slick. probably best to not go out if you don't have to. it looks more like it snowed than i thought it would. legitimately looks like 2" of compacted snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Is there a nice sheen to the fresh snow out there? Bet it's gorgeous. Currently 32/26, overcast. A bit of melting going on, but not bad. A bit. Would show better in the sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The Hill of Doom in Arlington had two plow trucks going uphill, plowing in my side of the street. I wondered what pull some neighbors on the other side have with the county. But then a third truck went down the hill and plowed them in... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 LOL YES! They plowed! Oh my god I feel bad for these folks but when this sleet bomb hardens tonight, it's going to be impossible to get through it. I quickly shoveled the sleet bank away from my car's path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 And now there have been two salt trucks, and a third just spread sand too. I guess they are worried that vehicles will slide helplessly downhill and try to take out the I-395 wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: LOL YES! They plowed! Oh my god I feel bad for these folks but when this sleet bomb hardens tonight, it's going to be impossible to get through it. I quickly shoveled the sleet bank away from my car's path. Gotta leave the snow wall there. Its an excuse for a Friday off. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 22 minutes ago, gopper said: https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/prod_overview/local_gmt_conversion.shtml I still need to look at this chart. My memory is not good, so it helps to look at the chart when I forget. Just subtract 5 in the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just subtract 5 in the winter Its easy for me because I am a pure winter weather weenie. I am only here mostly in the winter. So I always subtract 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 40 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: HRRR shows ZR and snow blossoming over the area by like 5 or 6z tonight. That second batch blossoms into a massive area of pixie dust. I have a feeling it will overperform somewhere. Unfortunately NJ/NYC/NE might steal it from us again. It's too light and moves through to quick for us to really have a shot at anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 59 minutes ago, Ji said: its pretty cool that we had 2 chances in this storm just like we did last week. the first chance--was sleet and 25 and the 2nd chance looks like it wont happen. I love how we maximize our potential! It’s not getting enough attention the fact wave 2 was on all guidance at 0 and 6z and most at 12z then just totally failed. It was a consensus .2-.3 qpf. Imagine if that was it...we would have been tracking a 1-3” snow that totally evaporated to nothing 12 hours out. Guidance is really struggling right now. It’s understandable to have shifts like that from 48 hours on out but they are struggling with things in nowcast even. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Sandy is the perfect description. I might just break out the beach chair Did someone say Sandy!? Yep. The Euro nailed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Models are just tools Like a pair of plyers for painting or a paintbrush for hammering in nails-Tools 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not getting about attention the fact wave 2 was on all guidance at 0 and 6z and most at 12z then just totally failed. It was a consensus .2-.3 qpf. Imagine if that was it...we would have been tracking a 1-3” snow that totally evaporated to nothing 12 hours out. Guidance is really struggling right now. It’s understandable to have shifts like that from 48 hours on out but they are struggling with things in nowcast even. In a winter where guidance has consistently struggled... I’m still stunned by the divergence between the gfs/para and really all of the other models (although most now depict a tenth of inch of qpf). 18z GFS shows a really nasty ice storm overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Models are just tools Like a pair of plyers for painting or a paintbrush for hammering in nails-Tools Your forecast did great... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros. We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at bay. I experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: IAD soundings showed a +1c warm layer between 800-825 leading up to that storm. The surface was plenty cold - it hit 20 here last night - but the cold wasn’t deep enough for all layers to get below freezing all the way into the metros. We didn’t have the dynamics in place or mid level lows closing to our south to keep the mid levels at bay. I experienced freezing rain in sub 20-25 degree conditions multiple times up in NY. It sucks man. I mean for potentially overnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Ok, I’ll bite on this “event” for educational purposes. Why would it be ice overnight? Winds are out of the north, I don’t see a screaming south wind or jet steak like last night at the mid levels. What am I not seeing? For the record, my guess is this is a whole lot of nothing regardless of what might fall if anything. The mid level winds are still out of the southwest...the screaming tropical jet has passed though...so that could be easily overcome and the warm layer mixed out if there was any moderate to heavy precip...but extremely light precip won't be able to mix out the left over pockets of mid level warmth lingering and the SW winds aloft wont help scour it out either. If we actually do get some decent banding of legit precip I bet it would change to snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 -SN 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Not kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29 and cloudy. Looks like some weak lift overnight will result in very light precip- probably mostly freezing drizzle. Then lets see what happens tomorrow morning with the weak wave. Probably anything 'significant' will be right along the coast or offshore(and mostly to the NE), but guidance is not in good agreement. Whatever happens it should be pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. The earlier HRRR runs (I didn't look recently) had new development giving us some precip tonight rather than the existing activity well to our west. Maybe that'll happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Precip blossoming over KY a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 And then t ended. That was strange. Just popped up and then gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. That stuff "blossoming" in northern GA is what's coming our way. That looks pretty good so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Trajectory is bad. Pittsburgh is stealing our bands. Some Guidance has precip developing to our SW and heading this direction by 0z. Looks like it’s changing back to snow pretty easily under heavier banding out west. I’m sure something will ruin it, but hey, I’ll root for a quick additional inch or two, why not… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Appalachians eat everything up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Icy mist up in Westminster. Cleared driveway and cars around 1pm and now a glaze on all surfaces and a mist coming down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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