WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: we should scrap all threads and just make the board one big stream of consciousness Possibly. But we could also just keep model discussion in model discussion threads and then start a storm relative thread a day before they actually start. There’s never just one way of doing things. Doing things because that’s always the way they have been done is probably the worst rationale ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Grothar of Herndon said: It was cool event for 2 hours, but definitely not near what the models were forecasting and NAM 3k was closest to be right for Herndon as well. Yep in the same boat as both of you though was interesting to walk in sleet good for sledding too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmk Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Precip seems to be done or very light in Gainesville, sun poking through the clouds a bit. Roads are completely covered but grass never really accumulated much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Shitty storm filled with disappointment but had some pretty cool moments to me. If I didn't have any idea what the models were saying and this event happened I probably would have enjoyed it quite a bit. That said, that was some heavy ass sleet and the heavy snow even though brief and intermittent was pretty cool. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This stuff is a pain in the butt to shovel. Like shoveling millions of tiny slippery ball bearings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1.5" of sleet. First time this winter the roads fully caved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But my "fear" all along for what could wreck this turned out to be correct. Even up here I have mixed with a lot of sleet and its holding down accumulations. The reality of your snow fear index, aka the NAM, has worked out rather well this season. Went to the Food Lion yesterday for a few things and when the cashier and I spoke about the impending weather she said its all hype. She said with great confidence , there going to be wrong again, and she was correct. Without computers, without soundings, without met knowledge and using only persistence she beat the forecasters. Thats funny. I was despaired the last three winters because the base state prevented any threats. Now my fear is the ability and ROI on tracking in the long and short range. The majority of this winter, with it's record - NAO, record - AO, etc., modeling did poorly, 3 out of 4 winter storm warnings in my area never achieved the criteria , more or less. Yes, weather forecasting is humbling and challenging. But, this winter has been a emotional rollercoaster of mostly despair and huge let downs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I don't know about QPF, but I know had I listened to the NAM for my backyard in every other event this year, I never would have been disappointed. For this one, I followed it closely the entire time and love that I did because it seems I'm the only one happy today and not upset lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yep. I guess people just tend to cast my posts aside but I banged the drum last night, and I've been saying for years (in the NY forum as well) that the NAM(s) are greatly improved models. Yes, they're prevaricating. But that's what they do. At 12-36 hours they have been the best models this year bar none. When I was in Harlem it was the same deal. NAM was the first to catch onto something at the final hour. The massive 2017 blizzard that was supposed to bring 24-36" in March--it absolutely nailed the warm nose, and the pros had egg all over their face. That’s Harlem for ya. Didn’t need the NAM to tell you that was going to happen. I grew up in NW Rockland county where it was typically 5-8-10 degrees colder during storms and snowed twice as much annually despite being only 25-30 miles away from downtown (as the crow flies) That’s just the climo of that area. 287/87 has always been the fall line in the NYC metro. It’s a different world N and NW of the NYS thruway. I can recall at least 7-8 storms where nyc rained and my area saw over a foot. The Bronx always did better than Manhattan which did better than Brooklyn, queens, and the island, etc. 24-36” of pure snow in downtown NYC is extremely rare for a reason. Your point about the NAM’s performance is spot on. Inside of 24-36, the hi res has been cash money. I’m not sure how many storms people need to live through until they grasp the NAMs dominance in the short range and that it is literal garbage outside of 60. I said it to @WinterWxLuvr last night…. If the 3k NAM shows a near identical low track and high positioning to Globals within 24 hours but shows the warm Nose 50 miles further north, you best be paying attention - its probably right. IMO, the NAM shouldn’t even be looked at until within 48. It will save people a ton of confusion about the NAM showing a snowstorm in Ohio / Buffalo 5 days out and the whiplash it does to reality within 48. I understand many are disappointed and rightfully so, but Models overall did quite well with this. Euro, GFS, PARA, EPS, UKMET, etc all pretty did pretty well in regards to the overall pattern evolution and track a few days out, which is what globals are used for - and in the short term, the mesos (RAP, NAM twins, HRW) took it home on the nitty gritty details. That’s why using a mixture of model consensus and local climo is so important when making a forecast and why Mets don’t just choose a “reliable model” and make a forecast off of it verbatim. I know it’s tempting for folks to compare ground truth to kuchera snow maps and see a bust during what’s been a very tough winter for many, but if you analyze models based on their strong suits, they actually did pretty well here once we got within 3-4 days. In a general sense, it is a shame that in the year 2021, models are still so far apart on the details but what can we do. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Shitty storm filled with disappointment but had some pretty cool moments to me. If I didn't have any idea what the models were saying and this event happened I probably would have enjoyed it quite a bit. That said, that was some heavy ass sleet and the heavy snow even though brief and intermittent was pretty cool. Truth in this. I’ve often thought the models kinda take away some of the fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Had a nice Jebwalk right in the middle of the sleet bomb. Was actually pretty cool. Roads were pretty messy around the neighborhood and up near Rt 103 and Rt 100. Walking on the sleet reminded me of those some those crappy loose granular Ski Liberty days I’ve encountered in the past. All good. Whatevs. Onward and upward to our next fail. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: That’s Harlem for ya. Didn’t need the NAM to tell you that was going to happen. I grew up in NW Rockland county where it was typically 5-8-10 degrees colder during storms and snowed twice as much annually despite being only 25-30 miles away from downtown (as the crow flies) That’s just the climo of that area. 287/87 has always been the fall line in the NYC metro. It’s a different world N and NW of the NYS thruway. I can recall at least 7-8 storms where nyc rained and my area saw over a foot. The Bronx always did better than Manhattan which did better than Brooklyn, queens, and the island, etc. 24-36” of pure snow in downtown NYC is extremely rare for a reason. Your point about the NAM’s performance is spot on. Inside of 24-36, the hi res has been cash money. I’m not sure how many storms people need to live through until they grasp the NAMs dominance in the short range and that it is literal garbage outside of 60. I said it to @WinterWxLuvr last night…. If the 3k NAM shows a near identical low track and high positioning to Globals within 24 hours but shows the warm Nose 50 miles further north, you best be paying attention - its probably right. IMO, the NAM shouldn’t even be looked at until within 48. It will save people a ton of confusion about the NAM showing a snowstorm in Ohio / Buffalo 5 days out and the whiplash it does to reality within 48. I understand many are disappointed and rightfully so, but Models overall did quite well with this. Euro, GFS, PARA, EPS, UKMET, etc all pretty did pretty well in regards to the overall pattern evolution and track a few days out, which is what globals are used for - and in the short term, the mesos (RAP, NAM twins, HRW) took it home on the nitty gritty details. That’s why using a mixture of model consensus and local climo is so important when making a forecast and why Mets don’t just choose a “reliable model” and make a forecast off of it verbatim. I know it’s tempting for folks to compare ground truth to kuchera snow maps and see a bust during what’s been a very tough winter for many, but if you analyze models based on their strong suits, they actually did pretty well here once we got within 3-4 days. In a general sense, it is a shame that in the year 2021, models are still so far apart on the details but what can we do. All correct, except one thing: Kuchera maps in THIS storm were actually more reasonable, including on NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Windy.com wind vectors imply low pressure forming off the coast of Virginia Beach. Brighter skies have pushed temp from 25 to 27 here on east side of Columbia imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The HRRR and RAP are both showing a little area of enhanced precip again (probably a mix) later on tonight. We'll see. Perhaps a glaze of ice if it's not snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I disagree. First of all, very pedantic scrutiny of the word area. By area, I meant our area. Not sure how you derived otherwise, or how that's relevant. Secondly, the 0z NAM last night was by far the most accurate solution. The pros specifically singled it out. If you took the snow maps verbatim that's on you. But the mix line and soundings were damn near right. I love that you clarified your diction by not contributing any new information whatsoever. Very helpful. In case it helps you, when I said area, I meant our geographic area of VA, MD, WV. If that's not what you meant, then I can't help you. If, on the other hand, you meant the geographic area like I did, then I'd hope you'd agree that a model's performance in our area is vastly more relevant than other areas where you might be able to point to relative success. I will direct you to the disco this morning which pointed out that although the NAM was close with the warm nose, it too underestimated it. Also, I'd like to point out that the NAMs busted in large part due to QPF overestimation, not because of the mix line. You can see that in the 00Z run which you previously called cherry-picked before you specifically lauded it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 30 minutes ago, mattie g said: But which areas received 1" of QPF? Also, I don't see that this area has widespread 0.6"-1.00" of QPF, but I'm happy to be proven wrong. The northern tier likely came the closest. The Winchester to Manchester area saw very heavy banding for about 8 hours under those bands. My guess is that we are above 0.8” QPF going off of 10:1 ratios. If ratios were lower, then we saw even more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 1/2" on the driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Tiny flakes... now it snows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The weirdness of the roads helped make this event not fun or memorable.. but at least interesting. Even after repeated plowing/treatments even the main roads remind me of the Midwest. Persistent ice and compacted snow (in this case sleet) to drive on. A bit of a throwback for me in that regard... while at the same time seeing significant accumulating sleet for the first time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I am so glad I don't do this to myself anymore. Not going to lie though I had a moment. Just a short one right now. But really you can't make it up. Just unbelievable bad luck we've had. At some point this bad luck has to end, right? Please PSU, make it stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I am so glad I don't do this to myself anymore. Not going to lie though I had a moment. Just a short one right now. But really you can't make it up. Just unbelievable bad luck we've had. At some point this bad luck has to end, right? Please PSU, make it stop? doubt it ends this year...maybe next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Little pixie flakes have ben floating around for the last 15 minutes, at least. Just a few here and there. Really strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 About 1.5" of wintry mix. .25" of this is snow that fell before sunrise. The rest is mostly sleet. Warming up just a tad. 28/28 La Plata 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Still in awe at the power of that +1c warm layer between 800-825. With a surface look like this….temps in the low 20s at onset….heavy precip… we still managed to mainly be ice/sleet for the metros. That damn trough (lack thereof) killed us as far as getting an appreciable area wide snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchvoniWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I mean I'll take it and be grateful but I'm not happy about it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 My brother is reporting 2” of pure sleet west of turf valley near the rt 40/ interstate 70 juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, LP08 said: This 0z nam? For whatever reason, events just dry up as they happen. People have to know how to use the NAM It sucks at precip amounts. It is pretty good with the sleet snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: All correct, except one thing: Kuchera maps in THIS storm were actually more reasonable, including on NAM. They definitely did better than those dreadful 10:1’s or snow depth maps for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just remeasured, and I got 2.5" of sleet in the parking lot. It collected there a bit easier. Brush your cars off and shovel around them now. This stuff gets ridiculous to maneuver around and will cake onto everything for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Amped said: People have to know how to use the NAM It sucks at precip amounts. It is pretty good with the sleet snow line. It was actually dry here. Local weather station reporting 0.86 which is actually more than the NAM forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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