SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: It literally rained 95% of the time for wave one. I mean the models have been just....so, so, so bad. And the pros, while way better than the models in aggregate, have incorporated them into their forecasts too much. They were onto something last night but didn't have the confidence considering the strength of guidance. It really has felt like a the models have been gaslighting us more than usual this year. As of like 36 hours the GEFS was trending better every run and had pink down into the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run? Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier. This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart. Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out. You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95? LOL, no you definitely don't, I remember it well. I've been on here every day for weeks. When the trends stopped going in the right direction and models were still all over the place with the mix line I lowered my expectations quite a bit. This may be me seeing things that aren't there, but what I've noticed the past few years with setups where large amounts of sleet/zr are forecast is the 3k NAM tends to do pretty damn well with placing that feature. I think it was the late March 2018 storm where it was honking for sleet to move in much faster than most other guidance and sure enough... DC was forecast for something like 6-8" before the flip and ended up with about 1" of snow and 2" of sleet. On your second point, I do find it pretty amazing. I've argued that our base state isn't what it used to be on here before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackCat Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Okay...so why is that? We can't get the trough over us...why? Bad roll of the dice? My brave second post - I would like to understand the dynamics a bit better myself. I get the surface low does NOT dictate frozen precipitation. I try to follow along with the "mets" discussing warm meso's and such, but I would really like this storm broken down in layman's terms. I am a long time lurker and I rarely post, but I enjoy following the winter storms! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1" of sleet! Wiped scraped my snowboard sleetboard. 0.4" in the last hour. Man, what could have been with these rates... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Here's the final chart up through 06Z, which is the last run before snow started. I will add the verify line once DCA reports total accumulations tomorrow. Please let me know if they report anything in the mean time, because I haven't seen anything from DCA since 7am. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackCat Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, BlackCat said: My brave second post - I would like to understand the dynamics a bit better myself. I get the surface low - I meant surface temperature. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Majopa said: Do you people and the others in the weather watching community ever get tired of being so wrong so often? lol everyone look at the FNG 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Reminder that no one here is actually responsible for your lack of snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I went with 2-5" along 95. At the time with all the doom posting about the NAM's showing no snow I kind of considered that a positive bust. Even that looks high though, although remember sleet accumulation counts. But I really thought with heavier banding it would mix with snow enough...but the heavy banding (again) set up NW of 95 so that didn't work out. It was close...you can see during some of the heavy banding places pretty far SE did mix with snow. I wanted to be optimistic. Figured we were due for something to break good for once. I was wrong about that. But my "fear" all along for what could wreck this turned out to be correct. Even up here I have mixed with a lot of sleet and its holding down accumulations. It's all because you did that centimeter thing....Leesburg 04 will never forget 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: It's all because you did that centimeter thing....Leesburg 04 will never forget He borrowed your famous trick. Your Sykesville "friend" isn't very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This...might be off a smidge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Grove Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: Definitely. 7-9” will be common in our area. Def. a shame that sleet made its way in so quickly. No doubt we would have flirted with a foot if it hadn’t. 4-730am was some of the best winter weather I’ve ever seen, and I lived in both Buffalo and the Hudson valley in NY for many years. Damn you warm layer. Sorry to the southern crew Just cannot catch a dang break. Wonder if the population of Union Bridge will be picking up with the mass exodus of AmericanWx Weenies from the big Cities, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Snow /sleet steady. Temp up to 31 in SE DC. Lookin' good. Streets solid white. Car tracks from an hour ago have disappeared. Est 1" accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: This...might be off a smidge. Might not be that far off for some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, PSWired said: Where in Annapolis are you? Here in Bay Ridge I've only got ~3/4" of accumulation. Looks like I've been in a dry slot, but that might change here in a few minutes. I'm a bit farther west than you. Sleet bomb continues here. Measurements in the grass range from 1.2-1.8" or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majopa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol everyone look at the FNG Been here a bout a month or so. Accuweather.com has been better at predicting the weather than the 20,000 different models and forecasts posted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said: I'm a bit farther west than you. Sleet bomb continues here. Measurements in the grass range from 1.2-1.8" or so. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Sun poking through here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r3w Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Nothing interesting here other than a bit of freezing rain & sleet. Looks cool though I guess. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Looks like about 1.5" of snow and mostly sleet. I said this morning how the radar to the SW looks like nothing but scattered light activity after the main band. I got roasted and here we are at 11:15 with reports of sunshine. I guess some people don't like reality mention on here lol. Another bust. Amazing. I will say the sleet is cool to walk in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 No precip near Tuckahoe at the moment. It was mostly sleet, and pretty underwhelming(Luckily!). Not a ton of sleet, but enough to cover the roads, and a small glaze of freezing rain on trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3/4” sleet depth. 0.42” precip. What a kick in the nuts. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: 3/4” sleet depth. 0.42” precip. What a kick in the nuts. Yup. Lack of precip was the killer in our backyards, which is the surprising part of this one for me, as I never expected to have much in the way of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxinVA Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Appears to be done here. Looks like we finished up with about .75" of snow and a dusting of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 0.9" of pure sleet here in McLean. The sandy nature of it is at least interesting. Don't remember Feb 2007 so this is just about the most sleet I've seen in any given event. Pretty paltry total, but we knew what kind of fire we were playing with in this given setup. Still, I'm glad peeps in the NW sections of this subforum cashed in pretty well. Especially the far western members so far this season. I know the past few Ninas have screwed you guys pretty bad (especially 17-18), so seeing multiple events break your guys' way is at least a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, BlackCat said: Your question here... Do you mean how it's sleeting and can rain below freezing? If so, go here... https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_DC-Winters and here. https://www.weather.gov/rnk/Measure_Icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Majopa said: Yeah I highly doubt that Hmmmm. People who have been this for decades...vs. a neophyte sadist with transparently and poorly sublimated depression... I think I'll take the word of the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 this event was awful for Loudoun. Just un eventful. The NAM 3k was right. We didnt even see good sleet and zero snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The nice thing about sleet I guess is that when it’s plowed the piles make it seem like it snowed 6 inches. Next week when it’s 50 plus out those piles might still be there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Pixie mist light snowpies falling now almost looks foggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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