stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 So, PARA Gfs last night lookin good right now! 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 27/24 light sleet and sun looks ready too pop out from clouds. I thought this was going to be a 12 to 18 hour storm. It has been about 6 hours in Herndon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Bust after bust after bust after bust and I still manage to inch my way literally to double digit snow totals for the season. I'm done with winter. Thankfully warmer temps are just around the corner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Under oranges and dumping sleet. Over 5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Ended with about an inch of sleet here in Charlottesville. CHO is reporting 0.46” equivalent, which is about half the amount of qpf I was expecting here. Only 0.46”? That really is disappointing. So many ways to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Okay...so why is that? We can't get the trough over us...why? Bad roll of the dice? the PAC has been awful for us the past few years so alot of the energy is dumped into the west and we get a SE ridge. And then when we have blocking like we did this year...the PAC is still screwing us so we are not maximing our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So, PARA Gfs last night lookin good right now! Prob best to throw that revision in the trash and start over I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: So, PARA Gfs last night lookin good right now! Have no idea what the actual verification scores are, but the para always seems like a joke to me. It seems much worse than the model it is replacing, which already leaves a lot to be desired. Para just seems too cold and snowy all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Grothar of Herndon said: 27/24 light sleet and sun looks ready too pop out from clouds. I thought this was going to be a 12 to 18 hour storm. It has been about 6 hours in Herndon there is no way we got even close to an inch of QPF...unless we had alot when i was sleeping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: gfs still has a good amount of precip after midnight Yes what are people thinking because I think if precip continues tonight it will be ZR any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ka60 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: Just measured 2" of sleet in Germantown. I was hoping to get at least few inches of snow before changing to sleet. may be in the next few hours. oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2" of sleet. It's beautiful. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSWired Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: And now we're back to sleet but that was probably the heaviest snow we've seen all year. Where in Annapolis are you? Here in Bay Ridge I've only got ~3/4" of accumulation. Looks like I've been in a dry slot, but that might change here in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run? Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier. This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart. Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out. You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95? Despite the positive trends leading in, I never really bought into a "good snow solution" for MBY; there just wasn't enough of a consensus to get me there. I accepted that we might see an inch or two of snow (and maybe more if we got really lucky for a few hours) followed by a lot of sleet. Reality is that we sleeted for 6-7 hours with lulls in between (may have started as a little snow, but I was asleep). I was prepared for a sleetfest, so the lack of precip is what got me down, rather than the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ji said: there is no way we got even close to an inch of QPF...unless we had alot when i was sleeping I have been up since 4 am. We only got what we have and no where near what any model was showing for QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Honestly, maybe the worst bust this year. The two-wave storm was bad but this one really seemed like it couldn't fail totally. But the NAM has been fire all year, so, shrug. Mets called it but didn't have the guts to go against most of guidance. I'm seriously considering moving once my job here is done. This is pure torture. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Did you manage 5-7" up your way? Definitely. 7-9” will be common in our area. Def. a shame that sleet made its way in so quickly. No doubt we would have flirted with a foot if it hadn’t. 4-730am was some of the best winter weather I’ve ever seen, and I lived in both Buffalo and the Hudson valley in NY for many years. Damn you warm layer. Sorry to the southern crew Just cannot catch a dang break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, TSG said: I mean I understand why people are frustrated but there were signs everywhere that this was a marginal setup with big bust potential. We didn't have anything close to model consensus even 24 hrs out.. The 3k NAM was showing pretty much exactly what's happening right now yesterday morning. A little stronger/snowier on the front end thump, but it had mixed sleet/snow already spreading up to NE MD starting a little after sunrise. People are frustrated because we look at the models in aggregate. Nobody seriously expected the para to be right, and most people didn't seriously expect the 3k to be right either. There wasn't a single model I saw at 00Z last night which showed <2" of snow+sleet at DCA. For most people, that was the last guidance they saw. It was 2"+ of sleet (NAMs), or 2"+ of snow (everything else) at DCA. Yet we seem to have gotten the combo of mostly sleet like the NAMs said, but a much faster storm leading to lower accumulations. Maybe we get lucky tonight? But right now guidance looks like it may be a bust for DC across the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Only 0.46”? That really is disappointing. So many ways to fail. Yea we cashed in on about 3 hours worth of precipitation as it cruised into WV all night. Good glaze and 1/2” of sleet or so. Disappointing to say the least. Congrats to those that got dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 About 1.25” of sleet in Arlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Super bright in Rockville. Guess the back edge is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Definitely. 7-9” will be common in our area. Def. a shame that sleet made its way in so quickly. No doubt we would have flirted with a foot if it hadn’t. 4-730am was some of the best winter weather I’ve ever seen, and I lived in both Buffalo and the Hudson valley in NY for many years. Damn you warm layer. Sorry to the southern crew Just cannot catch a dang break. Yea the 5a - 7am timeframe in New Windsor was amazing. Big fluffy snow that just piled up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Honestly, maybe the worst bust this year. The two-wave storm was bad but this one really seemed like it couldn't fail totally. But the NAM has been fire all year, so, shrug. Mets called it but didn't have the guts to go against most of guidance. I'm seriously considering moving once my job here is done. This is pure torture. i thought the 2 wave storm couldnt miss...euro had 13-14 inches 3 days before the storm.....even a big step could would get us 6 right? we got 0(DC metro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Back edge appears to be here in Germatnown too. STill getting sleet to fall but it's bright outside. At least I don't have to worry about this stuff cooking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, NattyBo said: Super bright in Rockville. Guess the back edge is here. Yep. Here too. Good riddance to this pathetic event and my 90 seconds of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, NattyBo said: Super bright in Rockville. Guess the back edge is here. sunny in leesburg.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, ovechkin said: You are an amazing forecaster and I’ve learned a ton from your posts and appreciate your insights a ton, but you did say yesterday to expect a positive bust in the immediate metro this time, no? I went with 2-5" along 95. At the time with all the doom posting about the NAM's showing no snow I kind of considered that a positive bust. Even that looks high though, although remember sleet accumulation counts. But I really thought with heavier banding it would mix with snow enough...but the heavy banding (again) set up NW of 95 so that didn't work out. It was close...you can see during some of the heavy banding places pretty far SE did mix with snow. I wanted to be optimistic. Figured we were due for something to break good for once. I was wrong about that. But my "fear" all along for what could wreck this turned out to be correct. Even up here I have mixed with a lot of sleet and its holding down accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i thought the 2 wave storm couldnt miss...euro had 13-14 inches 3 days before the storm.....even a big step could would get us 6 right? we got 0(DC metro) It literally rained 95% of the time for wave one. I mean the models have been just....so, so, so bad. And the pros, while way better than the models in aggregate, have incorporated them into their forecasts too much. They were onto something last night but didn't have the confidence considering the strength of guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Majopa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Do you people and the others in the weather watching community ever get tired of being so wrong so often? 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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