ThePhotoGuy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Huge flakes coming down in Pasadena. Wow! I wish it would stay like this for a bit, would get some nice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, WVsnowlover said: Looks like about another 30 minutes of sleet here. How are we looking for a possible 2nd round this evening? Is that still a thing? NAMS have very light, showery mixed precip through the night out our way. Not much in the way of additional accumulations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 And now we're back to sleet but that was probably the heaviest snow we've seen all year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 it looks like light snow in leesburg but its probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Officially SL+ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Down to light snow/sleet mix here. Just about done with the first batch. Great little storm. Bring on the afternoon bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 gfs still has a good amount of precip after midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 its getting very bright now. Pretty much sunny! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I'm not sure I've ever seen/heard sleet this heavy before. Maybe it's come down as hard as this before, but definitely not harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Are afternoon bands or a 3rd wave still in the cards? If so, coming from where? http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif Just now, clskinsfan said: Down to light snow/sleet mix here. Just about done with the first batch. Great little storm. Bring on the afternoon bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, TSG said: I mean I understand why people are frustrated but there were signs everywhere that this was a marginal setup with big bust potential. We didn't have anything close to model consensus even 24 hrs out.. The 3k NAM was showing pretty much exactly what's happening right now yesterday morning. A little stronger/snowier on the front end thump, but it had mixed sleet/snow already spreading up to NE MD starting at like sunrise. Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run? Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier. This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart. Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out. You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 12z rgem is nice. Has another 6 hours of light snow out here this evening and overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ji said: gfs still has a good amount of precip after midnight It really does almost like a round 2...didn’t check temps however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: NAM was spot on, back edge rapidly approaching NOVA. Can’t buy an event this year. Good...get this thing outta here so we can stop being reminded of the bust! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Officially SL+ lol Correct METAR code would be IP+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, WVsnowlover said: Looks like about another 30 minutes of sleet here. How are we looking for a possible 2nd round this evening? Is that still a thing? NWS forecast is for an inch additional. latest models suggest we have a light mix later which transitions to snow. I'm not counting on it, but another inch would be nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run? Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier. This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart. Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out. You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95? And yet Texas gets snow...Seattle gets snow. Explain that, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 inch of sleet measured in Owings mills 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run? Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier. This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart. Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out. You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95? You are an amazing forecaster and I’ve learned a ton from your posts and appreciate your insights a ton, but you did say yesterday to expect a positive bust in the immediate metro this time, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Do I have to go back to when we were only 48 hours out and post those trend gifs showing EVERYTHING with 6" plus for DC and Baltimore and trending better EVERY run? Yea it immediately started to fall apart after that and by last night signs were this could go down this way...but this one has to hurt even more because it was trending better until about 48 hours out...all the others looked really good at like 100 hours but the slow bleed to fail started much earlier. This one actually looked good at 48 hours and then fell apart. Just because I was worried about the mid level warm layer...and I am not shocked it ended up killing a lot of people's snow dreams...doesn't mean I wasn't hopeful this one would be different and work out. You don't find it amazing that we keep getting "decent" chances and they ALL break the wrong way for 95? Literally EVERYTHING was trending well for this and then we get enough crap thermals that it wrecks the setup. Just one of those years I guess. There will (hopefully) be years where we go the other way and score more often. Based on the last couple years just happy to have a chance ... that's moving in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: And yet Texas gets snow...Seattle gets snow. Explain that, lol i think the general theme for the past few years has been most of the trough has been in the central US or Western US. So when that happens....places like Texas will end up doing better than us. We really didnt get any of the arctic air that Lousiana got,etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Slightly over an inch of sleet. Didn’t even get the full sleet bomb experience. Would’ve liked two. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just measured 2" of sleet in Germantown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Pouring sleet. Darn. If this last band had stayed snow with these rates could have made a run at double digits. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i think the general theme for the past few years has been most of the trough has been in the central US or Western US. So when that happens....places like Texas will end up doing better than us. We really didnt get any of the arctic air that Lousiana got,etc Okay...so why is that? We can't get the trough over us...why? Bad roll of the dice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 21, Cloudy. Final total from this morning - 5.25" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Pouring sleet. Darn. If this last band had stayed snow with these rates could have made a run at double digits. Did you manage 5-7" up your way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow General Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Ended with about an inch of sleet here in Charlottesville. CHO is reporting 0.46” equivalent, which is about half the amount of qpf I was expecting here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Heavy sleet. I was hoping this last heavy band would have flipped to snow for one more nice burst. 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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