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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


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4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Yup, I learned my lesson this season. If there's confusion as to where the sleet line is going to be, always rely on the NAM. Even yesterday while models were giving everyone 5" of snow, the NAM was insistent on saying it would be all sleet.

It's the only model to trust these days. Deadly accurate in predicting fails.

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The NAM from a couple of days ago was obviously wrong. It was basically doing the same thing the GFS did for awhile, which was moving the storm progressively south and east and playing catch up. But you cannot argue over its performance over the past 24 hours, which is its wheelhouse. It was insistent that near 95 and south was likely to whiff on any snow accumulations. It had the main snow band way north, and that's going to be fairly accurate. Euro and GFS tried to shift a bit late but were still way overdone around 95, and the HRRR should be put on rocket and fired into outer space.

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3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

What's up with radar? Looks like after this first batch of bs goes through it will be intermittent and showery. What a bust lol. I'll always remember the winter of the bust. Even the one 4" snow I got was flurries for 3 days lol

It’s filling in and getting heavier.  You have to remember that the image on the radar isn’t static. 

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3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

What's up with radar? Looks like after this first batch of bs goes through it will be intermittent and showery. What a bust lol. I'll always remember the winter of the bust. Even the one 4" snow I got was flurries for 3 days lol

Seeing a few cloud breaks here.  Might be about ova.  24. Nice little event. 

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3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

What's up with radar? Looks like after this first batch of bs goes through it will be intermittent and showery. What a bust lol. I'll always remember the winter of the bust. Even the one 4" snow I got was flurries for 3 days lol

Well I guess this non event for you should mean you can go about the rest of your day and be fine!!  Enjoy your bust!

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