kgottwald Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: They will be launching the balloon from Dulles in a few minutes. We’ll get the results in 45-60 min. The SPC mesoanalysis page has a model-derived estimate of the upper air structure right now. 850s are a problem (more than 700 or 925). I’m guessing there is even a worse layer in there above 850. 80 degrees! Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Now mostly snow again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Heavy snow with lots of sleet here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28/23, sleet. Received ~1" of snow thus far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 50 minutes ago, osfan24 said: No, but the much-ridiculed NAM once again lead the way on this. What a winter it has had. You can take the GFS, HRRR, and Euro and throw them in the trash can. I'm sitting at 25 with a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems to go to all sleet in heavier bands. This is probably the most frustrating winter I can remember. At least some previous winters, you just closed the blinds and took the loss and took your lumps because you were coming off a run of really good winters. The amount of time I've spent tracking essentially nothing this winter makes me understand why Bob Chill stepped away. This was so much more bearable just hugging the NAM from the start. There’s still a good storm to be salvaged here, just relies on getting enough sleet to look like snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 All sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: Imagine your rates , darker blues, banding, etc., and location is helping too , here is it meh. Many corporations in northern Delaware closed due to the winter storm warning. I doubt we see 4 to 6 inches of snowfall here. But, I will wait before declaring complete failure for 3 out of the 4 storms this season Oh, I shouldn't even use the word storms, implies something major, not. This event is a good example of why these "precip-type" radar maps are often flawed. The indicated precip type is not based purely on radar data; they add supplemental model data to determine the likeliest precip type at the location of each radar observation. The dual-polarization observations, however, show the sleet/snow line from southern Carroll County northeastward into PA, where reflectivity (ZH) and differential reflectivity (ZDR) values are enhanced due to bright banding, and correlation coefficient is reduced due to a mix of melting particles with different shapes. SImilarly, the rain/freezing rain transition is where the correlation coefficient increases south of Anne Arundel County, with both ZDR and ZH values decreasing here as raindrops dominate the backscatter. One other thing to note is the higher correlation coefficient and lower ZH and ZDR closer to the radar site in northern VA. The lack of a melting signature here is because the radar beam is closer to the ground at these locations and thus propagates beneath the melting layer; once the radar beam is higher off the ground at locations farther from the radar site, the polarimetric melting layer signature is visible. When the beam gets high enough, it samples above the melting layer and the signature disappears, as correlation coefficient becomes close to 1 and ZH and ZDR values decrease. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 It's funny watching the pellets bounce off of the grill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodwidp Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 All sleet here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Columbia, 7am: Looks like we may have started briefly as pre-dawn snow before changing to sleet/ZR. Temp down from 25.4 at 6am to 25.0 at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Getting some of those Arkansas bands now. Just ripping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, mappy said: Been texting Ava since I woke up, a "forecasting nightmare" as she put it. 10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: So the NAM from a few days ago as our far NW outliner wins again. Sheesh. The NAM won this 24 hours ago. I called it yesterday morning. When the NAM says no. It's no. Light slop 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhoady Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, Rhoady said: 11z: 26F/25, light mix, 80/20 PL/ZR, 1.2" The meso analysis that dec pic posted is relevant at least afa precip changing back from 90% ZR to 80-90% PL an hr or so later imby 12z: 28F/25, light mix, 60/40 PL/ZR-, 1.3". The accumulated precip is the worst to drive or walk on rn. Mini-glaciers forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Both RAP and HRRR have a loudoun death band in an hour or two...really curious about precip type...not sure that's exactly where the band will set up, but it's quite likely there will be a western band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Ice rink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 23/21SleetSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m045400 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Icy hell here in SoMD. My wife bit it on the deck when she took the dogs out. Uggs evidently don't do well on ice. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhatStorm Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Snow started about 3 AM. Looks like a dusting of snow with an inch of sleet on top. Sleeting now. Temp just dropped a degree...28/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7am CoCoRaHS report was .06” precip, T snow. DCA 0.09” so far. IAD at 6 miles vis. It is hard to look out the window and tell that anything is falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 24° sleet with no snowflakes in sight in Gainesville and Manassas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Looks like Winchester-Frederick-Westminster is gonna score out of this. Surprise! Just sleet in Germantown, 26. Must've had some rain earlier cause there's icicles everywhere and a glaze on some surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Both RAP and HRRR have a loudoun death band in an hour or two...really curious about precip type...not sure that's exactly where the band will set up, but it's quite likely there will be a western band Is this heavy stuff missing you right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: The NAM won this 24 hours ago. I called it yesterday morning. When the NAM says no. It's no. Light slop 27 Yup, I learned my lesson this season. If there's confusion as to where the sleet line is going to be, always rely on the NAM. Even yesterday while models were giving everyone 5" of snow, the NAM was insistent on saying it would be all sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: 7am CoCoRaHS report was .06” precip, T snow. DCA 0.09” so far. IAD at 6 miles vis. It is hard to look out the window and tell that anything is falling. Woof. that's a pretty dry start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Back to smaller flakes now but visibility is definitely decreasing with the yellow returns overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 21F and moderate snow on the M/D. Measured just under 2 inches right now. Not the best accumulating stuff, but man is it cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Is the radar supposed to fill in at all? It does not look great for the .8-1.0” of QPF forecasted for my area. 24F and sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 27/19 started as freezing rain and flipped to sleet. Not one snow flake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 All sleet now in Westminster 22f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 As of 7am... 2.8" new snow .24" liquid Currently mod snow 23/22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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