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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

 

The NAM won this 24 hours ago. I called it yesterday morning. When the NAM says no. It's no.

Light slop

27

Yup, I learned my lesson this season. If there's confusion as to where the sleet line is going to be, always rely on the NAM. Even yesterday while models were giving everyone 5" of snow, the NAM was insistent on saying it would be all sleet.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

7am CoCoRaHS report was .06” precip, T snow.

DCA 0.09” so far.

IAD at 6 miles vis.  It is hard to look out the window and tell that anything is falling.

Woof.  that's a pretty dry start

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4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Yup, I learned my lesson this season. If there's confusion as to where the sleet line is going to be, always rely on the NAM. Even yesterday while models were giving everyone 5" of snow, the NAM was insistent on saying it would be all sleet.

It's the only model to trust these days. Deadly accurate in predicting fails.

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The NAM from a couple of days ago was obviously wrong. It was basically doing the same thing the GFS did for awhile, which was moving the storm progressively south and east and playing catch up. But you cannot argue over its performance over the past 24 hours, which is its wheelhouse. It was insistent that near 95 and south was likely to whiff on any snow accumulations. It had the main snow band way north, and that's going to be fairly accurate. Euro and GFS tried to shift a bit late but were still way overdone around 95, and the HRRR should be put on rocket and fired into outer space.

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