Ka60 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It sure would be nice if the precip were a bit heavier now while the column is still good. Just stuck my head out the door and it's all snow, but mostly light to at times moderate. Temp is 26. My temp is 25 in Clarksburg! heavier the precip got, it changed to rain from Sleet!!! how is that possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Definitely a little disappointed but mostly wondering what will happen now. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: 26 and rain before daybreak. Guess we will see what a legit ice event looks like in the corridors. If this were to stay all frz, what is anyone best guess for how much ice we are facing? I've lost track of what total precip is expected, if you cut out snow and sleet. It's clearly all rain now in downtown dc, and you can see it already starting to build up on the streets and sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: No, but the much-ridiculed NAM once again lead the way on this. What a winter it has had. You can take the GFS, HRRR, and Euro and throw them in the trash can. I'm sitting at 25 with a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems to go to all sleet in heavier bands. This is probably the most frustrating winter I can remember. At least some previous winters, you just closed the blinds and took the loss and took your lumps because you were coming off a run of really good winters. The amount of time I've spent tracking essentially nothing this winter makes me understand why Bob Chill stepped away. Yeah, still don’t agree with all the NAM hot taeks. It missed the synoptic setup badly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: All freezing rain here now So the gfs was right when it showed zr 6 days ago I think the Euro might 'win' on this event being lighter and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yeah, still don’t agree with all the NAM hot taeks. It missed the synoptic setup badly. Might be right for the wrong reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Train Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Anyone in Front Royal / Strasburg/ etc under the heavy stuff? If so, what’s falling?I’m in south leesburg. All sleet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yeah, still don’t agree with all the NAM hot taeks. It missed the synoptic setup badly. The NAM was terrible from 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The event is underway but I think it’s safe to conclude the winning models are a blend of every model runs least snowy outcome for DC/balt in the last 24 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Right over the cornidor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just woke up. I’m guessing people are upset? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The worst part about this busting is that it fooking sleeted hard enough to wake us up before going to rain. Like, if I’m not gonna get snow at least let me sleep, cmon! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 At least Little Rock got a foot and memphis another six inches. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhoady Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 52 minutes ago, Rhoady said: 10z: 27F/23, light mix, 80/20 PL/SN--, 1.0" Rates vary quite a bit; showery, from ++ to - every five to ten mins. 11z: 26F/25, light mix, 80/20 PL/ZR, 1.2" The meso analysis that dec pic posted is relevant at least afa precip changing back from 90% ZR to 80-90% PL an hr or so later imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ka60 said: My temp is 25 in Clarksburg! heavier the precip got, it changed to rain from Sleet!!! how is that possible? No denying the LLJ and warming aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: Just woke up. I’m guessing people are upset? Not the Union bridge guy. He’s reporting infinite snow. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I have heavy sleet and everything including roads are white from sleet. Where is the snow? I thought it was supposed to be snow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, D-Train said: Anyone in Front Royal / Strasburg/ etc under the heavy stuff? If so, what’s falling? I’m in south leesburg. All sleet. . It's still snow in the Winchester area. But I am eyeing those returns to my south as well. If that is snow we are getting buried. But I would bet it's sleet. 3.2 inches so far. Snow 23 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFZ Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: just switched from sleet to snow here as well. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 A little more sleet mixing in...but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Have about 3” inches of snow/sleet Snowshoe WV. It’s now heavy freezing rain coming down now. I’m expecting to lose power here soon. God speed everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Welcome aboard the winter 2020-2021 failure train, folks! Plenty of seats in the back! Glad to have you along for the ride! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, 87storms said: Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Globals have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups. Yeah the biggest bust that comes to mind was Jan 25, 2000. Of course that was great for snow lovers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Just woke up. I’m guessing people are upset? Should I post the CC radar for you? 26.7 and all sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, 87storms said: Forecasts have definitely improved over the years. There were countless busts in the 90s due to similar setups or just flat out undermodeled downsloping, etc. If anything, it’s impressive that the nam was so intent and correct about the mix line. Global have improved at 5 day leads but there’s clearly still some areas for improvement in these types of fringe setups. I think people just need to start putting more stock into seasonal trends. Every winter event this year, at least in DC, has featured a quicker flip to mix and less snow than models suggested. In other years, however, it seemed like every winter event went the other direction, where snow hung on longer and forecasts were always busting a bit low. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The NAM was trash with this storm. The GEM was the only model that insisted this was purely an ice bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: Should I post the CC radar for you? 26.7 and all sleet I’m good. Just enjoying the meltdowns among the folks who haven’t had need to melt yet this year! 26 and sleet in Burke. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Should I post the CC radar for you? 26.7 and all sleet I’m trying to interpret it now and not having much luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 25/23 and a mix of sleet and freezing rain. And darkness. So much darkness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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