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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
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   If we're going to post the HRRR maps every hour,  please use the Pivotal Weather Total Accumulated Snowfall (not the 10:1 or the Kuchera).    This is the true snow output from the model with an SLR that it computes based on low-level temps.     You'll see clear differences between it and the other two.

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

   If we're going to post the HRRR maps every hour,  please use the Pivotal Weather Total Accumulated Snowfall (not the 10:1 or the Kuchera).    This is the true snow output from the model with an SLR that it computes based on low-level temps.     You'll see clear differences between it and the other two.

Could you post a link potentially? Thanks 

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Sterling just went 5-7" for me....seems reasonable..I'd even be happy to hit the low end of that

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1035 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

MDZ001-003-501-502-VAZ027-028-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-181145-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0500Z-210219T1100Z/
Garrett-Washington-Extreme Western Allegany-
Central and Eastern Allegany-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-
Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
1035 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow along with some sleet and freezing rain. Snow
  accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of a light
  glaze.
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39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Imo- models have already set the boundaries and they cant replicate exact weather. Especially with riding such a tightrope with ptypes. Models arent all over the place either. There is a common theme through all guidance with the only big question being a razor thin ptype situation for most. Real time will tell the story there.  Qpf amounts are close enough across all the models.  Instead of hanging on model runs that wiggle back and forth, just imagine how your yard does with these events and be honest lol.  You're probably right. 

The warm nose/layer before noon is pretty thin. It's also barely above freezing. 1 degree one way or the other is make or break snow/sleet. I'm in chips fall mode. A case can be made for more snow/less sleet and vice versa. We'll see soon enough

My old backyard is usually 3 inches of snow, some sleet, then freezing drizzle in these events. That's what I would expect.

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