jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, high risk said: If we're going to post the HRRR maps every hour, please use the Pivotal Weather Total Accumulated Snowfall (not the 10:1 or the Kuchera). This is the true snow output from the model with an SLR that it computes based on low-level temps. You'll see clear differences between it and the other two. Could you post a link potentially? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 NE wind rn is pretty damn cold tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Imo- models have already set the boundaries and they cant replicate exact weather. Especially with riding such a tightrope with ptypes. Models arent all over the place either. There is a common theme through all guidance with the only big question being a razor thin ptype situation for most. Real time will tell the story there. Qpf amounts are close enough across all the models. Instead of hanging on model runs that wiggle back and forth, just imagine how your yard does with these events and be honest lol. You're probably right. The warm nose/layer before noon is pretty thin. It's also barely above freezing. 1 degree one way or the other is make or break snow/sleet. I'm in chips fall mode. A case can be made for more snow/less sleet and vice versa. We'll see soon enough My old backyard is usually 3 inches of snow, some sleet, then freezing drizzle in these events. That's what I would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 To our west: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 27/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 UKMET has round 2 tomorrow night also...generally .2-.3 QPF across the area with that. Just about all guidance has that now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: UKMET has round 2 tomorrow night also...generally .2-.3 QPF across the area with that. Just about all guidance has that now. Hopefully its snow and not freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: UKMET has round 2 tomorrow night also...generally .2-.3 QPF across the area with that. Just about all guidance has that now. Plenty of time for it to juice up and drop 6-10. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 UKMET has round 2 tomorrow night also...generally .2-.3 QPF across the area with that. Just about all guidance has that now. Does it have round 1? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Mordecai said: 26/17 What is Rigby reporting? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skywalker03 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 24/13 in Derwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhode Islander in Balto Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 24 / 12 in Parkville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 New LWX warnings: northern tier: 5-7” with up to 0.1” of ice DC to Baltimore: 3-5 with up to a 0.25” of ice meanwhile my folks in SE NY are under an advisory for 5-9 those bastards always get in on the goods too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Can somebody who pays far more attention to detail than I do let me know how temps look currently versus what models were predicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 23 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2021021800&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Thanks man! Can’t wait to see your deck pic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Thanks man! Can’t wait to see your deck pic He doesn’t have a wide enough lens for that. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 18/13 at Deep Creek with returns overhead. Nothing on the Ring cameras yet, though. 29/15 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 24/15 in Germantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Temps have come up 2 degrees! 26/15 in Purcellville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 33 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: 31/15 downtown - at least we're below freezing this time. And this afternoon was not 52 for a high with a preceding 35 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: NE wind rn is pretty damn cold tho How much for Philly And Sleet is like having a hot sister Both got rolled out in last 24 hours! Good times ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ji said: 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: UKMET has round 2 tomorrow night also...generally .2-.3 QPF across the area with that. Just about all guidance has that now. Does it have round 1? yes...actually focuses that further NW. Bullseye of precip is Winchester northeast to Carroll County. Would be mostly snow NW of a line from about Sterling to Owings Mills. Mostly ice SE of there and looks like about 4-6" of snow with wave 1 NW of there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Since we're in the really short range so the hrrr should get the majority if not all the weight from here in. Unless it gets worse at 4z. How about if it gets better? I don't see any other meso doing this, but the HRRR is insistent on the best dynamics/rates being at the tail end of the thump. This would probably be a rather fun sounding.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Hours 12-17 on the 3Z HRRR were fuuuuego Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It's like the models know EXACTLY where Western avenue is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: Its easy to choose the warmest/least snowiest model so if they go with the NAM...so be it. Dosent mean its going to be an all sleet because the pro guys are favoring that model Right...yet all I said is that it was probably not the best sign that they were... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: It's like the models know EXACTLY where Western avenue is. Well that would certanly be distressing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's like the models know EXACTLY where Western avenue is. I used to live on Western Avenue! My profile pic was taken there. Unfortunately, we tended to have DC weather and not MoCo weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 HRRR trends are definitely encouraging for @WxUSAF @Scraff @MDweatherman and co 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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