WVclimo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 LWX's latest 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. 4 2 26 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. I like the way you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: Trying to catch up--- NAM stinks, no NAM is good, it is drying up, no models have held serve. GFS is going to screw us. . . maybe not. 3 inches of. . .snow? sleet? This is not a hobby for the faint of heart Quick question-- is this a miller A? Or maybe a miller A/B? I know we haven't had a classic Miller A for some time. . . still no cloud cover. . . 25/18.8 Precip is going to be heavy in the morning. Very heavy in some spots. NW of the cities is safer for mostly snow. Near the cities is a very close call on exactly how much will be snow vs sleet. SE of the cities is probably a majority sleet. Pretty similar to many winter storms for our area. *Edit* I shouldn't say majority sleet. That's not a sure thing at all. But as you go NW you have the best shot for majority snow, as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens 95 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. Love the fine print:) 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Does this record have another side? Yeah actually I’ve been pretty unbiased the whole time. But it seems you only chime in when it’s not pollyannish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. Gutsy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. PSA: Divide by 2.54 to get 'Murcan units!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ravens 95 said: Love the fine print:) LOL. ICONoclastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. Appreciate the love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. Is this real @psuhoffman.. wow.. you are going HUGE!!!!.. oh ha.. cm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 @psuhoffman Just blew up the board...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens 95 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, blueberryfaygo said: Is this real @psuhoffman.. wow.. you are going HUGE!!!! Read the key, my eyes jumped at first as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 So much scrolling through the same map. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ravens 95 said: Read the key, my eyes jumped at first as well. Why did anyone’s eyes jump? Y’all thought for a sec PSU would call this? I’m dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 @stormtracker... PSU is trolling us with the metric system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Well, his write up still encourages good things lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 How many people went to google to convert 14 CM to inches? 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. My thinking here: 1. Who posted this ridiculous call? 2. Wait, it's PSUHoffman? What the hell happened since I checked 30 minutes ago? 3. :::reads the key::: 4. Back to doomcasting the NAM 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: Well, his write up still encourages good things lol I can’t read the words I just see that I’m in the 6-14 feet zone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 ill take the 2z hrrr and call it a winter. all snow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ji said: ill take the 2z hrrr and call it a winter. all snow Can you post it kind sir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said: Here is a side by side comparison of the observed 0z sounding at Dulles vs. the 18z NAM depiction. The NAM was too warm...but it also wasn't dry enough...so wouldn't those 2 kind of offset in the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Can you post it kind sir here is 16z panel 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. What you using tonight, Indica? Sativa? Hybrid? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 27/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Can you post it kind sir 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I like how the HRRR is directing the precip right through DC and Balt instead of us being in the so called crab claw lull 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: What you using tonight, Indica? Sativa? Hybrid? Whatever they got up in Canada based on the unit of measurement. IMO it was too subtle, millimeters wouldn't have set off any alarms at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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