Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 35 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: WTH is this sounding? White asteroids probably. If the dendrites are big they'll clump up before hitting cold air again. Marginal sleet sounding. Like 1 degree above freezing tops? Warm layer is thin too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM: wetter like the HRRR, If I only get 0.5” of snow I might cry. But 2-3” of sleet would sure be interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This used to mean something... 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Thinking way too much faith being placed in the NAM. Might be wrong but that’s my gut on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb level. This is around 1C warmer than what most of the 18Z models initialized. The 18Z Canadian Regional had the best initialization of the 18Z guidance with a warm nose around 1C with the 00Z NAM now having caught up to the warmer air aloft. Although, there is a lot of dry air at that level which would result in wet-bulb cooling once precip arrives, the trend in the models has been for a faster changeover to mixed precip Thu morning. Will be incorporating more of the 00Z NAM and 18Z Canadian Regional in our update tonight. These two models have verified the best with temps aloft this winter, especially with the mid December 2020 and Feb 10 mixed precip events. There has also been a trend toward a faster exit of the precipitation late Thu night across the region with precip only lingering across southern MD and in the upslope areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, digital snow said: If I have to read read one more post about the precipitation drying up for the NW crew I might start clawing at my own eyeballs. I am just kidding to an extent and I know this is an IMBY hobby so I forgive you but for real... You’re right about there being way more posters in your area. But see we have to read things that irritate us too. Now multiply that by the vast number who live where you do and you will see that your irritation is mild comparatively. So it’s probably best that you worry about your issues and let us worry about ours. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, ThePhotoGuy said: 00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb level. This is around 1C warmer than what most of the 18Z models initialized. The 18Z Canadian Regional had the best initialization of the 18Z guidance with a warm nose around 1C with the 00Z NAM now having caught up to the warmer air aloft. Although, there is a lot of dry air at that level which would result in wet-bulb cooling once precip arrives, the trend in the models has been for a faster changeover to mixed precip Thu morning. Will be incorporating more of the 00Z NAM and 18Z Canadian Regional in our update tonight. These two models have verified the best with temps aloft this winter, especially with the mid December 2020 and Feb 10 mixed precip events. There has also been a trend toward a faster exit of the precipitation late Thu night across the region with precip only lingering across southern MD and in the upslope areas. A faster changeover and a faster exit. What's not to like? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thinking way too much faith being placed in the NAM. Might be wrong but that’s my gut on this one. We say that every time. However, when the track of the storm and overall setup on the NAM is nearly identical to other models but shows father north mid level warm air intrusion, it’s typically right. Sadly. Hope it’s dead wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 So close. Got to imagine its more than just heavy sleet. Fun morning ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: We say that every time. However, when the track of the storm and overall setup on the NAM is nearly identical to other models but shows father north warm air intrusion, it’s typically right. Sadly. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: So close. Got to imagine its more than just heavy sleet. Fun morning ahead. I doubt that’s sleet, but even if it is, it’s better than flakes that melt on contact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29/19.5 west of short pump. Hopefully far enough west. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Nam is alot more friendly with additional precip after whatever thump we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 HRRR doesn’t look too bad for 1z run for Baltimore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigsnowdog Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Did things fall apart? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Dabuckeyes said: HRRR doesn’t look too bad for 1z run for Baltimore Was thinking the same. Another run with an almost all snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: Was thinking the same. Another run with an almost all snow event. It’s interesting how early it looks like the sleet line is advancing quick but then it gets knocked down. Maybe because of the rates? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, bigsnowdog said: Did things fall apart? Not sure what you mean. No, everything looks on track for what most every area in the forum was expecting from the midday runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Here is a side by side comparison of the observed 0z sounding at Dulles vs. the 18z NAM depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said: 00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb level. This is around 1C warmer than what most of the 18Z models initialized. The 18Z Canadian Regional had the best initialization of the 18Z guidance with a warm nose around 1C with the 00Z NAM now having caught up to the warmer air aloft. Although, there is a lot of dry air at that level which would result in wet-bulb cooling once precip arrives, the trend in the models has been for a faster changeover to mixed precip Thu morning. Will be incorporating more of the 00Z NAM and 18Z Canadian Regional in our update tonight. These two models have verified the best with temps aloft this winter, especially with the mid December 2020 and Feb 10 mixed precip events. There has also been a trend toward a faster exit of the precipitation late Thu night across the region with precip only lingering across southern MD and in the upslope areas. I would expect cooling over night.. I think the 06z sounding should be more telling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I miss the old 32k nam 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Was thinking the same. Another run with an almost all snow event. Post it please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Wow the NAM pretty much just took away I-95's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Was thinking the same. Another run with an almost all snow event. NWS Likes the NAM though. Not a good feeling. I've seen this movie--like seven times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29 degrees, no wind to speak of in southeast washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: NWS Likes the NAM though. Not a good feeling. I've seen this movie--like seven times this year. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said: 00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb level. This is around 1C warmer than what most of the 18Z models initialized. The 18Z Canadian Regional had the best initialization of the 18Z guidance with a warm nose around 1C with the 00Z NAM now having caught up to the warmer air aloft. Although, there is a lot of dry air at that level which would result in wet-bulb cooling once precip arrives, the trend in the models has been for a faster changeover to mixed precip Thu morning. Will be incorporating more of the 00Z NAM and 18Z Canadian Regional in our update tonight. These two models have verified the best with temps aloft this winter, especially with the mid December 2020 and Feb 10 mixed precip events. There has also been a trend toward a faster exit of the precipitation late Thu night across the region with precip only lingering across southern MD and in the upslope areas. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Besides the NAM nest (and the parent NAM, but I'm focusing on hi-res), the HiResW ARW and ARW2 this evening both also favor the earlier transition to sleet. The HRRR and the HiResW NMMB are both snowier, but they both tend to be too snowy in these setups. I won't abandon hope since the forecasted soundings are walking such a tightrope with the warm layers, but I don't like what I've seen so far from the 00z suite for a healthy snow accumulation in most of the area. 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Besides the NAM nest (and the parent NAM, but I'm focusing on hi-res), the HiResW ARW and ARW2 this evening both also favor the earlier transition to sleet. The HRRR and the HiResW NMMB are both snowier, but they both tend to be too snowy in these setups. I won't abandon hope since the forecasted soundings are walking such a tightrope with the warm layers, but I don't like what I've seen so far from the 00z suite for a healthy snow accumulation in most of the area. And the HRRR is DRY. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: And the HRRR is DRY. Wow. I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip. There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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