Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Corona in hand, alarm set. 31/15 in College Park MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Per the legend on the left, mixed layer parcel which I know nothing about. It’s not that hard to understand. There are parcels. They are mixed. In layers. You’re welcome 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it (I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight) 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's been pretty insane. I'll have to recap everything at some point. It's historic in many aspects for my area. I'm out in west TX btw, between Abilene and El Paso! Nice, are you going to catch any of the goods tomorrow? That band is pushing into Mexico for f's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: So I'm finally learning how to read soundings. The temps at different heights are still hard to grasp. What am I looking at with the blue dotted temp line? Does it follow those red lines? Because that would be pretty warm upstairs but that has to be wrong... Here is a really useful resource on interpreting skew-t/log p charts. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a221842.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The short range models at 18z have been abysmal with what has transpired in western Tennessee and Kentucky. Their radar presentation isn’t close to reality. WAA Snow waits for no man...or model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it (I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight) I see discreet cells embedded in those dark blues. Could get sleetnadoes. 29.7/17 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I’m at my cabin in snowshoe WV. I’m expecting a crazy night. Hopefully will see some big fatties 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Been very busy today, but around Baltimore is it fair to expect snow to start around 6-7 AM, get moderate/heavy between like 7-10 AM, then mix with/change to sleet in the late morning, before pretty much wrapping up in the early to mid afternoon? That's kind of the impression I got from the last NAM run I saw. Wasn't sure what the feeling was in here about how much precipitation falls anytime after early afternoon tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Okay so per the sounding above, that would be sleet FZR? Because they saturate the column pretty far into above freezing territory? This should answer all your questions. Soundings are ELI5'd all over the web. Lets keep that stuff out of here https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/skewt_samples#:~:text=As snow falls into the,A typical "Sleet" sounding. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29.7/18.9 here after a 37.4 high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, H2O said: It’s not that hard to understand. There are parcels. They are mixed. In layers. You’re welcome Shaken, not stirred? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Anybody else notice 18z initializations versus ground reality are not really all that close? Rain snow line and precip shield don’t line up whatsoever with current obs. (Correct me if I’m wrong please) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Snowchaser said: I’m at my cabin in snowshoe WV. I’m expecting a crazy night. Hopefully will see some big fatties And hopefully some snow too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 IAD 0z sounding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbusada Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26.8/16 in Lothian,MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 DCA under freezing at 31 already entering a storm and the Wiz are going for 3 in a row. What a time to be alive. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I’m at my cabin in snowshoe WV. I’m expecting a crazy night. Hopefully will see some big fatties There will certainly be a few fatties falling there tomorrow. There will likely be some snow too 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: Been very busy today, but around Baltimore is it fair to expect snow to start around 6-7 AM, get moderate/heavy between like 7-10 AM, then mix with/change to sleet in the late morning, before pretty much wrapping up in the early to mid afternoon? That's kind of the impression I got from the last NAM run I saw. Wasn't sure what the feeling was in here about how much precipitation falls anytime after early afternoon tomorrow. Yep. That’s a very reasonable assumption based on the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Shaken, not stirred? No. I’m calm. I might be shaken tomorrow if the HRRRRRRRRRRR fails me. starting to get cloudy. Need temps down moar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 FCPS Maryland is closed tomorrow. No virtual teaching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Here is a really useful resource on interpreting skew-t/log p charts. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a221842.pdf Wow this is a trove. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Anybody else notice 18z initializations versus ground reality are not really all that close? Rain snow line and precip shield don’t line up whatsoever with current obs Amen.Not even close. And the latest hrrr isn’t too spot on either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This should answer all your questions. Soundings are ELI5'd all over the web. Lets keep that stuff out of here https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/skewt_samples#:~:text=As snow falls into the,A typical "Sleet" sounding. Yeah I don't want the See Spot Run version. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 What about Winchester? I am afraid I might not get a foot It's a good thing all 3 people who live there post on this board. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: HRRR is showing thunder snow and sleet. IR satellite shows the high cloud tops associated with it (I'm kidding but maybe not. Full weenie mode tonight) I like to see the mix line taking on more a SW to NE v W t E trajectory. That’s more a winning scenario for along and west of 95 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 0z HRRR is much better for my area. Comes in hot and heavy. Less sleety for the District I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: 0z HRRR is much better for my area. Comes in hot and heavy. Less sleety for the District I think. Hope it’s right. Pounding at 10 am riding the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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