SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Not sure if this will end up being meaningful in any way but neither NAM or HRRR appears to have initialized with that band of precip in Tennessee. Edit: newest HRRR has it but it looks much weaker than it does in real life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:03 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Not sure if this will end up being meaningful in any way but neither NAM or HRRR appears to have initialized with that band of precip in Tennessee. Expand It will probably dry up. We never get that lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 7:33 PM, clskinsfan said: The precip down in TN just seems to want to stay together. It might make it up to us tonight. Expand Your beloved HRRR doesn’t think so. Thats means we’ve got a chance! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentredMan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Measured 1.5 in Centreville, like sugar. Current temp - 28.6. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:03 PM, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Not sure if this will end up being meaningful in any way but neither NAM or HRRR appears to have initialized with that band of precip in Tennessee. Edit: newest HRRR has it but it looks much weaker than it does in real life. Expand TWC claims that band is heading right for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Finished with 5.5" that compacted to below 5" by the time the last hour+ of sleet stopped. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:07 PM, ravensrule said: TWC claims that band is heading right for our area. Expand They would know. They have weather in their name. I’m in. Why not. 28 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 radar starting to light up south of dc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:07 PM, ravensrule said: TWC claims that band is heading right for our area. Expand I know radar extrapolation rarely works out but ITS ALL WE HAVE LEFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 My forecast busted. This fast flow is a pain in the ass, hopefully it goes away in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:10 PM, WhiteoutMD said: radar starting to light up south of dc Expand It is? Where exactly? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:15 PM, ovechkin said: It is? Where exactly? Expand SE North Carolina, I would guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:06 PM, CentredMan said: Measured 1.5 in Centreville, like sugar. Current temp - 28.6. Expand Nice looking pup! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:15 PM, ovechkin said: It is? Where exactly? Expand Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 See central TN. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:17 PM, NovaWahoo said: See central TN. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif Expand Would be cool if some of that streamed over the apps, all I want is like an hour of snow that sticks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:05 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Your beloved HRRR doesn’t think so. Thats means we’ve got a chance! Expand In all seriousness. Look at this panel. Then go look at the radar down in the TN area. The HRRR is clearly underdoing that precip. May mean nothing. But we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Maybe that precip could get lifted by that weak low over our area. Maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 7:50 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Watch the activity on the back end turn everything into an ice palace tonight and we somehow trip into an ice storm. Expand Never know the way things have been going. This is the reason why I am not bothering to shovel this sleet mess. Just gonna be a sheet of ice later and may as well wait with temps expected above freezing tomorrow. Not going anywhere anyways and easier to walk the dog on the crunchy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 An even sneet cover in SE DC. Maybe, 1.5" inches total. Temp holding at 32 degrees. Keep the faith, people...how can you go wrong when Phil sees his shadow? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:20 PM, clskinsfan said: In all seriousness. Look at this panel. Then go look at the radar down in the TN area. The HRRR is clearly underdoing that precip. May mean nothing. But we'll see. Expand Haha, that’s my thinking. If it can’t get right now right, how’s it gonna be right with what it’s showing later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:15 PM, ovechkin said: It is? Where exactly? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 They haven't even bothered to plow my parking lot. It's gonna be nasty when this all turns to concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:20 PM, clskinsfan said: In all seriousness. Look at this panel. Then go look at the radar down in the TN area. The HRRR is clearly underdoing that precip. May mean nothing. But we'll see. Expand If you look at the total qpf panels from the short range models and the nam nest, it looks like even at 18z they average just under a tenth inch of qpf basically areawide (ice/snow) overnight. Def a misty/freezing drizzle type look either way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 5:02 PM, ErinInTheSky said: All correct, except one thing: Kuchera maps in THIS storm were actually more reasonable, including on NAM. Expand On the Nam or GFS, looking at the "positive snow depth change" usually is much more realistic but not as fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:24 PM, ErinInTheSky said: They haven't even bothered to plow my parking lot. It's gonna be nasty when this all turns to concrete. Expand They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 7:54 PM, leesburg 04 said: Seems like temps came in under forecast for today. Not sure it means anything other than the fact that it ended up colder than thoughtEverything came in under forecasted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:27 PM, wkd said: On the Nam or GFS, looking at the "positive snow depth change" usually is much more realistic but not as fun to look at. Expand That works until it doesn’t lol. When there is an actual snow event it will almost always under forecast totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:28 PM, chris21 said: They tried to plow my street in dc (there is a fire station on our street) and failed miserably. Honestly they just made it worse. Expand Yup hahahaha I was actually hoping they would to see the hilarity that ensues. The sleet banks they make end up crusting into straight ice and trapping all the cars. Looks like they learned their lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 8:27 PM, wkd said: On the Nam or GFS, looking at the "positive snow depth change" usually is much more realistic but not as fun to look at. Expand that's what I posted all week and I got poopooed for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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