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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


nj2va
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7 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said:

Can someone post most recent DCA/IAD soundings (or show me where to get them)? Thx.

They will be launching the balloon from Dulles in a few minutes.  We’ll get the results in 45-60 min.  The SPC mesoanalysis page has a model-derived estimate of the upper air structure right now.  850s are a problem (more than 700 or 925).  I’m guessing there is even a worse layer in there above 850.

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I woke up hoping for the 1-2 hours of snow but saw the radar that we missed the initial thump of precip that went way north of us.  Ill be interested if we make it to the 0.8 QPF that basically all models had us at but I won't hold my breath.

Radar is looking awfully mediocre at best; I'd like to say I'm surprised but I expected this.  That LWX AFD about the warm nose last night was the nail in the coffin for this one. 

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

WBAL just now - Lowell mesler live on 40 in Ellicott city w/ sleet and freezing rain. Jen Franciotti live in Westminster with snow.

 

25 here still and sleet.

Been texting Ava since I woke up, a "forecasting nightmare" as she put it. 

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1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Radar is looking awfully mediocre at best; I'd like to say I'm surprised but I expected this.  That LWX AFD about the warm nose last night was the nail in the coffin for this one. 

Expected the warm nose, not the crappy radar but it is what it is.  

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

They will be launching the balloon from Dulles in a few minutes.  We’ll get the results in 45-60 min.  The SPC mesoanalysis page has a model-derived estimate of the upper air structure right now.  850s are a problem (more than 700 or 925).  I’m guessing there is even a worse layer in there above 850.

I’m guessing either that 850 layer is pretty warm or extends down to like 875 or 900 given the FZRA.

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

They will be launching the balloon from Dulles in a few minutes.  We’ll get the results in 45-60 min.  The SPC mesoanalysis page has a model-derived estimate of the upper air structure right now.  850s are a problem (more than 700 or 925).  I’m guessing there is even a worse layer in there above 850.

11z just initialized..this is IAD

ETA - It looks much better over the next couple hours....Snow not out of the question

kL8pCCW.png

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