Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The NAM was too warm...but it also wasn't dry enough...so wouldn't those 2 kind of offset in the end? So HRRR precip but not quite as cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Notably wetter than 18Z, if I recall correctly? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 GFS is actually a longer/wetter event and a touch colder at the beginning. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS incoming! with flurries at 12z Hopefully the para holds serve. It’s been better for like 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26/16 here and still mostly clear, colder than I expected. Walked around the yard, mud frozen and most things frozen. Could be ugly if we get freezing rain..... eta: rooting for a sleet sandblasting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Damn, 0.6 sleet? That's what makes this a great event imo. Potentially 1" liquid and little to no zr. And sub freezing surface for all. Good times 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Para will save winter (I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 20 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: PSA: Divide by 2.54 to get 'Murcan units!! alternate version for the lazy...but I like the metric version better. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS is actually a longer/wetter event and a touch colder at the beginning. the longer part is hard to buy so alot of that qpf that Matt posted could be fake phase 2 stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Hopefully the para holds serve. It’s been better for like 48 hours. PARA is colder and wetter than the op 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: That's what makes this a great event imo. Potentially 1" liquid and little to no zr. And sub freezing surface for all. Good times sleet sucks dude....not the least bit excited about heavy sleet especially knowing that its like 1/2 degree from snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The NAM was too warm...but it also wasn't dry enough...so wouldn't those 2 kind of offset in the end? Biggest takeaway from that is the mid-levels are about a degree warmer which is not a good sign. Being drier does mean more radiation cooling so while it’s not a bad thing, doesn’t mean much if the 850s torch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Para. has .7" qpf through 15z...and. the column is good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Again, this is going to be a good test of the PARA vs GFS vs NAM battle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS is actually a longer/wetter event and a touch colder at the beginning. verbatim, DC doesn't go above freezing until late morning on Friday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Whew GFS would be nasty with the freezing rain. This is on top of region wide 4" of snow and almost 1" of sleet. This could be a really fun event tomorrow. Significant amounts of all ptypes, on multiple models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: verbatim, DC doesn't go above freezing until late morning on Friday SOLD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ji said: sleet sucks dude....not the least bit excited about heavy sleet especially knowing that its like 1/2 degree from snow Well, then make it not sleet then. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: PARA is colder and wetter than the op Nice. Gonna check it myself when I’m back with the pups. It’s been super bullish this whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Para is pretty sick for DC/NoVA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Going old school all day today. Why stop!? The only model anyone needs....the good old Weather Channel! That’s how the world used to roll...and we liked it! All this model chaos. Pfft!! Turn the TV on and what they say goes! 5-8!? Yup. It’s happening Ron Paul! It’s happening. Eta: this is what happens when you try to dent your beer fridge. See you at 4am first flakers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Whew GFS would be nasty with the freezing rain. This is on top of region wide 4" of snow and almost 1" of sleet. This could be a really fun event tomorrow. Significant amounts of all ptypes, on multiple models. 1. Brutal 2. The QPF differences between models are just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 the GFS has a remarkable amount of precip fall after 18z tomorrow along and east of I-95 (including a crazy amount of ice), but it's alone on an island. The NAM is at the other end of the extremes with perhaps the GFS para offering a more realistic middle ground (and more of a light sleet to light snow for most of us scenario, instead of freezing rain) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Scraff said: Going old school all day today. Why stop!? The only model anyone needs....the good old Weather Channel! That’s how the world used to roll...and we liked it! All this model chaos. Pfft!! Turn the TV on and what they say goes! 5-8!? Yup. It’s happening Ron Paul! It’s happening. I remember forcing my friends to watch local on the 8s so I could see the radar. 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just through 15z tomorrow. Certainly colder than its brother. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Again, this is going to be a good test of the PARA vs GFS vs NAM battle. the american model will win 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 PARA is trending closer to the parent, but it's still a high outlier by a good couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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