rjvanals Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, high risk said: I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip. There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts. HRRR did a poor job on the sleet/snow line Saturday consistently showing snow over the western suburbs of DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigsnowdog Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Not sure what you mean. No, everything looks on track for what most every area in the forum was expecting from the midday runs. I hadn't checked since last night - medium snow dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 27/17. Slowly dampening. Like my hopes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 How much rain in Dundalk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, snowfan said: How much rain in Dundalk? 1" of 33 degree rain most likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. It looks like some oscillating between sleet/snow in the heavy precip. Should be fun for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, rjvanals said: HRRR did a poor job on the sleet/snow line Saturday consistently showing snow over the western suburbs of DC Haha oh trust me I know firsthand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. So no change on the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, high risk said: I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip. There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts. Yeah I know from many storms. In Yonkers back in 2014 there was a pretty big snow to rain event. At the tail end of the event it showed temps plummeting with a massive backend thump. An hour or two later temps had reached the upper 50s and it was pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4” is my mark, 6 or above is gravy. These storms turn over earlier than progged, so here’s to hoping that precip comes in like a bat out of hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. No way that sounding produces sleet here. Perhaps rimed flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I’m feeling confident of a GFS rug pull with the para trying to hold onto some hope. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 ICON leads the way. Steady as a rock. Now it looks like two storms 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I’m feeling confident of a GFS rug pull with the para trying to hold onto some hope. Does this record have another side? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I’m feeling confident of a GFS rug pull with the para trying to hold onto some hope. The precip is already evident on the radar and it will be frozen in some form for basically the entire area. No need to talk about rug pulls; it’s gonna precipitate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 ICON goes with 3-4” along and NW of I95. Then sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 There's going to be heavy precip falling into temps in the 20s. The line between snow vs sleet looks to be setting up where it would normally set up for this region. But very heavy precip. Sweating the EXACT placement of the sleet on tonight's models seems a bit...wasteful? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Pretty interesting that we are basically on the doorstep of go time and we aren't really sure what's about to happen 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Sounds like what we thought - a quick thump then followed by a paint-peeling sleet bomb. This was never an all SN event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Pretty interesting that we are basically on the doorstep of go time and we aren't really sure what's about to happen I actually find it kind of thrilling. It's like the slots or a scratch off. We could pull 777. Or paid $25 for that scratch off ticket and win $1 (aka putting in 40 hours of tracking for a 15 minute burst of heavy snow, non accumulating sleet and dry slot). 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Trying to catch up--- NAM stinks, no NAM is good, it is drying up, no models have held serve. GFS is going to screw us. . . maybe not. 3 inches of. . .snow? sleet? This is not a hobby for the faint of heart Quick question-- is this a miller A? Or maybe a miller A/B? I know we haven't had a classic Miller A for some time. . . still no cloud cover. . . 25/18.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 LWX's latest 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. 4 2 26 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. I like the way you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, AACOUNTYMD said: Trying to catch up--- NAM stinks, no NAM is good, it is drying up, no models have held serve. GFS is going to screw us. . . maybe not. 3 inches of. . .snow? sleet? This is not a hobby for the faint of heart Quick question-- is this a miller A? Or maybe a miller A/B? I know we haven't had a classic Miller A for some time. . . still no cloud cover. . . 25/18.8 Precip is going to be heavy in the morning. Very heavy in some spots. NW of the cities is safer for mostly snow. Near the cities is a very close call on exactly how much will be snow vs sleet. SE of the cities is probably a majority sleet. Pretty similar to many winter storms for our area. *Edit* I shouldn't say majority sleet. That's not a sure thing at all. But as you go NW you have the best shot for majority snow, as usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens 95 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. Love the fine print:) 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Does this record have another side? Yeah actually I’ve been pretty unbiased the whole time. But it seems you only chime in when it’s not pollyannish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. Gutsy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I adjusted some of the totals a little...this is my current thinking. I think during the heaviest precip it will mix out the warm layer just enough to do better then the doomsday scenario on some of the high res guidance. Ratios will be low but it will be puking precipitation so even if its a 50/50 snow/sleet mix it will accumulate a decent amount. I also think these gulf systems with true cold air in place tend to run on the wet side of guidance. PSA: Divide by 2.54 to get 'Murcan units!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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