Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Wow the NAM pretty much just took away I-95's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Was thinking the same. Another run with an almost all snow event. NWS Likes the NAM though. Not a good feeling. I've seen this movie--like seven times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 29 degrees, no wind to speak of in southeast washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: NWS Likes the NAM though. Not a good feeling. I've seen this movie--like seven times this year. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said: 00Z IAD sounding showed a warm nose of 1.8C at the 809 mb level. This is around 1C warmer than what most of the 18Z models initialized. The 18Z Canadian Regional had the best initialization of the 18Z guidance with a warm nose around 1C with the 00Z NAM now having caught up to the warmer air aloft. Although, there is a lot of dry air at that level which would result in wet-bulb cooling once precip arrives, the trend in the models has been for a faster changeover to mixed precip Thu morning. Will be incorporating more of the 00Z NAM and 18Z Canadian Regional in our update tonight. These two models have verified the best with temps aloft this winter, especially with the mid December 2020 and Feb 10 mixed precip events. There has also been a trend toward a faster exit of the precipitation late Thu night across the region with precip only lingering across southern MD and in the upslope areas. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Besides the NAM nest (and the parent NAM, but I'm focusing on hi-res), the HiResW ARW and ARW2 this evening both also favor the earlier transition to sleet. The HRRR and the HiResW NMMB are both snowier, but they both tend to be too snowy in these setups. I won't abandon hope since the forecasted soundings are walking such a tightrope with the warm layers, but I don't like what I've seen so far from the 00z suite for a healthy snow accumulation in most of the area. 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Besides the NAM nest (and the parent NAM, but I'm focusing on hi-res), the HiResW ARW and ARW2 this evening both also favor the earlier transition to sleet. The HRRR and the HiResW NMMB are both snowier, but they both tend to be too snowy in these setups. I won't abandon hope since the forecasted soundings are walking such a tightrope with the warm layers, but I don't like what I've seen so far from the 00z suite for a healthy snow accumulation in most of the area. And the HRRR is DRY. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: And the HRRR is DRY. Wow. I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip. There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, high risk said: I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip. There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts. HRRR did a poor job on the sleet/snow line Saturday consistently showing snow over the western suburbs of DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigsnowdog Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Not sure what you mean. No, everything looks on track for what most every area in the forum was expecting from the midday runs. I hadn't checked since last night - medium snow dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 27/17. Slowly dampening. Like my hopes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 How much rain in Dundalk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, snowfan said: How much rain in Dundalk? 1" of 33 degree rain most likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. It looks like some oscillating between sleet/snow in the heavy precip. Should be fun for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, rjvanals said: HRRR did a poor job on the sleet/snow line Saturday consistently showing snow over the western suburbs of DC Haha oh trust me I know firsthand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. So no change on the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, high risk said: I've learned to not ebb and flow too much with the hourly HRRR runs in winter precip. There always seems to be lots of run-to-run fluctuation with precip amounts. Yeah I know from many storms. In Yonkers back in 2014 there was a pretty big snow to rain event. At the tail end of the event it showed temps plummeting with a massive backend thump. An hour or two later temps had reached the upper 50s and it was pouring rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4” is my mark, 6 or above is gravy. These storms turn over earlier than progged, so here’s to hoping that precip comes in like a bat out of hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is a sleet bomb for everyone. Followed by some nice back end snow to the nw of the cities tomorrow night. Concrete for Saturday morning. No way that sounding produces sleet here. Perhaps rimed flakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I’m feeling confident of a GFS rug pull with the para trying to hold onto some hope. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 ICON leads the way. Steady as a rock. Now it looks like two storms 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I’m feeling confident of a GFS rug pull with the para trying to hold onto some hope. Does this record have another side? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I’m feeling confident of a GFS rug pull with the para trying to hold onto some hope. The precip is already evident on the radar and it will be frozen in some form for basically the entire area. No need to talk about rug pulls; it’s gonna precipitate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 ICON goes with 3-4” along and NW of I95. Then sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 There's going to be heavy precip falling into temps in the 20s. The line between snow vs sleet looks to be setting up where it would normally set up for this region. But very heavy precip. Sweating the EXACT placement of the sleet on tonight's models seems a bit...wasteful? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Pretty interesting that we are basically on the doorstep of go time and we aren't really sure what's about to happen 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Sounds like what we thought - a quick thump then followed by a paint-peeling sleet bomb. This was never an all SN event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Pretty interesting that we are basically on the doorstep of go time and we aren't really sure what's about to happen I actually find it kind of thrilling. It's like the slots or a scratch off. We could pull 777. Or paid $25 for that scratch off ticket and win $1 (aka putting in 40 hours of tracking for a 15 minute burst of heavy snow, non accumulating sleet and dry slot). 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AACOUNTYMD Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Trying to catch up--- NAM stinks, no NAM is good, it is drying up, no models have held serve. GFS is going to screw us. . . maybe not. 3 inches of. . .snow? sleet? This is not a hobby for the faint of heart Quick question-- is this a miller A? Or maybe a miller A/B? I know we haven't had a classic Miller A for some time. . . still no cloud cover. . . 25/18.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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