KAOS Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Temp steadily dropping...weather app is 28 here already (clear skies are helping!) This is really messed up. How is Baltimore outperforming me with lower temps? 31/10 Pasadena. 2020-2021 has truly turned into bizzaro world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: My benchmark for a good storm is main roads and sidestreets covered. If they aren't, it's not a legit storm. I think I'll get that tomm. My benchmark as well. If I get that I'll be satisfied. Don't care about totals at this point. 31.1/16.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 31/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 33/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Setting my bar at 6" here.... 27/11 under a mainly clear sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I don't trust my thermometer but I went on a walk around the hood at sunset and it's cold. Best cold we've had pre-storm all winter, I think. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28/14 in Sykesville sticking to my earlier call of 3-4" here very little sleet or freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28/14 in Sykesville Stop bailing 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 56 minutes ago, CAPE said: Interesting tidbits from Mount Holly AFD- The ultimate evolution of the first southern-stream perturbation will be what is responsible for our winter weather late tonight and Thursday. A strong anticyclonic upper-level jet streak will combine with midlevel differential cyclonic vorticity advection to aid in intensifying surface low pressure from the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight to the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon. Intense warm advection atop a low-level baroclinic zone will aid in widespread precipitation to the north and northeast of the developing low. Meanwhile, a strong surface high will remain in southeast Canada, providing cold onshore flow for the northern Mid-Atlantic preceding the storm. Models are, as usual, too moist with the predecessor boundary-layer environment, with dew points a good 6-10+ degrees lower than model consensus today. This will be important in two ways. First, it is likely that low-level saturation requirements will delay precipitation onset in our CWA, with snow not likely to get going in earnest until near or just after daybreak. Second, models are likely too warm at the surface, especially during the main "thump" of precipitation during the morning hours. Sided with colder guidance here. With models trending slightly northward with the warm-nose influence on precipitation type on Thursday, our inclination was to be a little less aggressive than consensus in this regard. No question that the strength of warm advection will be intense, likely leading to a veritable sleet storm in a good chunk of the area as the event unfolds during the day. However, there has been a tendency for higher-res guidance to be a little too aggressive in shunting the warm nose to the north this season. Of course, there has also been a tendency for northwest shifts in the snow/sleet/freezing rain geographical distributions within 24 hours of the event (playing out once again with today`s guidance). It will be quite interesting to see how the 00z solutions play out, as run-to-run variability has been diminishing confidence in the forecast for this event considerably. It's interesting that the pros 'succumb' to gambler's fallacy. I put it in quotes because apparently these error patterns do in fact line up with real patterns for an extended winter of events. As in, mets think storms busting high on surface temps is a seasonal 'trend'. I really didn't put much stock into these types of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: My benchmark as well. If I get that I'll be satisfied. Don't care about totals at this point. 31.1/16.4 Of course you don't care about totals... you have already been reaped. My benchmark is 4+ (snow only)... otherwise I may be joining you. Judging by today's models I think it is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, KAOS said: Of course you don't care about totals... you have already been reaped. My benchmark is 4+ (snow only)... otherwise I may be joining you. Judging by today's models I think it is doable. I wish you the best of luck then. You'll get more than me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I don't trust my thermometer but I went on a walk around the hood at sunset and it's cold. Best cold we've had pre-storm all winter, I think. I have 26/11 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Down to 28 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My first and only call for my area is 3-4" of snow and a bunch of sleet. Once it shuts off I'm thinking 5" total of frozen stuff. Sleet will pummel and compact for sure. My plan is to measure snow at the beginning of the flip, clear the table, then measure sleet. Roads will be the worst they've been since Jan 16. Jan 19 was 11" in my yard but iirc the roads were fine. Not to mention snow distribution was all over the place so road impacts varied by the mile. Tomorrow will be a different story. I like this call. It's pretty in line with the pros at NWS too. I do however have more confidence in a potential high bust considering the trends in guidance at the final hour here. The key for me is temps. If we clearly start as snow and dew points have to meet as a bunch of QPF falls, it opens the window for us. It's a lot harder to get no snow from the setup than 5-6". You'd like to think that the closer to the event, the more accurate the modeling, but who the fark knows anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 32/13. Hoping for 4" or so, also love a layer of sleet on top for street toboggan runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: I have 26/11 here. 4" here tomorrow. Over or under? And I can't believe I just lobbed that out to you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, DanTheMan said: 32/13. Hoping for 4" or so, also love a layer of sleet on top for street toboggan runs What kind of run now? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodwidp Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR Faster mixing and not as heavy as those early bursts were in early runs well it’s not as bad as I thought. Mix line collapses some as heavier stuff gets in more. It’s still acceptable lol sorry 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 28/14 in Sykesville Stop bailing He has a girlfriend. Snow is fun but girlfriends can be fun too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 31.7/18. At least what might fall will be frozen. Clear skies too. Hoping to radiate some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 29/11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymdwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 29/12 in edgewood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 As zwyts said yesterday....anything less than 8 is a disaster 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 He has a girlfriend. Snow is fun but girlfriends can be fun tooSnow is way more fun 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: He has a girlfriend. Snow is fun but girlfriends can be fun too Snow is way more fun I am afraid to ask what you do with snow...temp32.5, DP19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: He has a girlfriend. Snow is fun but girlfriends can be fun too Snow is way more fun Says the married guy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28/16 - Thinking I end up with about 4 - 5" of snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What kind of run now? Lol Basically this lol. You can get some serious speed if you have a sleet base 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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