cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Omaha also down to 1/8 mile now. 4-5" reports coming out of that area already. Models generally have 0.2-0.3" of precip for here/QC. I think the kuchera ratios area actually too pessimistic along the I-80 corridor where in some cases they have it <10:1. Think there's a good chance at 12-14:1 if we get into some good banding, so 3-4" looks possible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Sounds good over there! Looking for that here as well. Either way it is shaping up to be another great day on the sleds.What a hell of a stretch. Other than the brutal cold, I have no reason to complain. In some ways we probably needed that to avoid any true threats to the snow pack. I'd be just fine to keep it going.I ran about 85 miles outside in January. Mostly out on local park trails in/on the snow. February started a bit slower/more indoors, but man what a great run it has been.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 snippet from Milwaukee Satellite imagery was indicating a few convective elements just on the north side of the low, which is forecast to track through the area later this afternoon and evening. The fgen forcing along the front is a bit stronger than forecast and seeing some higher snowfall rates occurring over IA this morning but whether those rates translate east into our area is questionable. Bufkit profiles do show an overlap of this better forcing from the fgen band the dendrite zone, so certainly could support a few higher rates AND The dry slot based on guidance should stay just south of the region but if it does meander north a tad could see more limited snow across the WI/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Should glacier the top of the snowpack if it actually changes to rain for a time and then refreezes. Even if it doesn't change to rain, the snow ratio could trend so low that it essentially has the same effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 for those watching: WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION COVERING MOST OF THE STATE OF IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT'S CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN PRETTY IMPRESSIVE OUT OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH AROUND 6-7+" OF SNOW REPORTED IN THE OMAHA AREA OVER A SIX HOUR PERIOD! WE WON'T QUITE REALIZE THOSE SNOW TOTALS OR SNOWFALL RATES, BUT THE LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION (GENERALLY 7-8 C/KM THROUGH AND ABOVE THE DGZ) WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW RATES NORTH OF I-80, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THE GOING FORECAST IS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PIERCING THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. MODELS HAVEN'T HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON ITS PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI BY NOW WHICH IS NOT QUITE THE CASE. IF THE DRY SLOT CAN HOLD ITS OWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THEN THAT COULD CUT INTO OUR SNOW TOTALS A BIT, BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE DRY SLOT IS CONTRACTING AND WON'T HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS BY THE TIME IT WOULD CROSS INTO OUR AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 I have no idea if this is going to be wet snow, rain, or a bit of both here. I still see similarities to February 4th but no way is it going to be that whiteout type of fun lol. As hoosier mentioned itll just add water to the snowpack. Our depth is down to about 12" on average and the water content I would say is about 1.3 to 1.4". Doesn't seem like it's really going to freeze hard for a few days afterward but it's not like the snowpack is going away without a torch lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Yeah radar looks pretty terrible in southern IA/northern MO. That's what I get for being optimistic earlier lol. I'll enjoy my 1" of slop and bring on the thaw tomorrow I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 9-10" has fallen from Omaha north/northeastward. Unfortunately, it appears this will come at the expense of my area. The good snow is lifting northeast toward Waterloo while I've been stuck with just graupel so far. The HRRR continues to dwindle the event over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Looking more And more like a dry slot nonevent for LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 I don't even know what to call the stuff that's coming down right now. It's too small to even call pixie dust. I guess frozen microbes would be a better term. Man this thing sure turned into a pos. Funny to think that I was thinking there may even be a chance at T-snow earlier lol. If we end up getting 1/3" out of this I'd consider it a win at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Looks like 2-4" of plaster tomorrow morning. Pad the stats and looks pretty for about 2 hours before it melts. C'est la vie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Looking more And more like a dry slot nonevent for LOT. The freakish run had to end at some point. Back to standard LOT events 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Surprisingly starting as sleet here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 The 18z NAMs indicate 2"+ amounts still possible in the CWA, but that's looking to be optimistic at this point. Would really have to rip under that next round out west of the MS River. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 18z NAMs indicate 2"+ amounts still possible in the CWA, but that's looking to be optimistic at this point. Would really have to rip under that next round out west of the MS River. I guess we'll see. We've had an unbelievable run so a clunker not unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Mood flakes with periods of -SN most of the day. Not adding up to a whole lot, but a solid 0.5" to freshen everything up before the melt begins tomorrow will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Snowing at a good clip under this lead band. If there wasn't a gap behind this, this earlier start than it was looking like yesterday might have been a reason for optimism. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Snowing at a good clip under this lead band. If there wasn't a gap behind this, this earlier start than it was looking like yesterday might have been a reason for optimism. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Snowing here now also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1.9" here, at least half of it having a Dippin Dots texture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Coming down nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Hands down best snow I’ve seen all winter. Shame there’s a huge dry slot coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Bout an inch.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Hands down best snow I’ve seen all winter. Shame there’s a huge dry slot coming.Always a caveatSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 That was legit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Only a T of snow here today. 80/20 rain/snow right now. Worst bust of the season in a season with underperformers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Parachutes to end an epic run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Some stupid large aggregates, the kind that fall fast like hail 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Just saw lightning here!! Feelin like Cantore. Currently at 28th floor condo in West Loop Gate, Chicago, IL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 The goods here at ORD... KORD 212351Z 17010KT 3/4SM R10L/P6000FT -SN BR FEW009 OVC011 01/M01 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP117 SNINCR 1/16 4/016 P0003 60003 T00111011 10028 20006 56028 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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