michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 hour ago, CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 said: I'm ready for one last parting shot before the warmth comes. Thanks for a fun winter, January and February! November and December, you can just go be boring somewhere else. You still have 2 more months before you can guarantee the parting shot lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Well, doesn't look like this is going to be much of anything. GFS and GEM trending more toward the NAM than the other way around, which is disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Sounds exciting per LOT PM AFD: HOWEVER, ONCE THE WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN ERODED VIA MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DYNAMIC COOLING. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESENCE OF 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES ATOP THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LENDS ITSELF TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW WITHIN THE BROADER SHIELD OF LIGHTER, BUT STILL STEADILY-FALLING SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OVERALL THINKING REGARDING SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH GENERALLY 2-3" EXPECTED NORTH OF I-80 (WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO AROUND 4"), 1-3" ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80, AND AROUND 1" WELL SOUTH OF I-80. WARMER LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AND A NOT QUITE AS DEEP DGZ SUGGEST THAT 7:1 TO 10:1 SNOW RATIOS WILL BE FAVORED SOUTH OF I- 80 AND 9:1 TO 12:1 RATIOS WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF I-80 AT SOME POINT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL EAT INTO OVERALL SNOW TOTALS THERE) AND IF ANY SUPPORT FOR F-GEN BANDING MATERIALIZES, WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL OVER A NARROW REGION BY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Why are we not showing models people? Help us poor folk out and show us some love 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 LOTs current snow map. I'm thinking it's a bit too generous, but we still have time for good and bad changes. Temps appear likely to go above freezing area-wide Sunday, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 22 minutes ago, steve23guy said: Why are we not showing models people? Help us poor folk out and show us some love As a fellow non-model watcher who relies on screenshots from others here - thanks for speaking up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 00z NAM/3kNAM... pretty meager outside of northern Iowa into se MN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 20, 2021 Author Share Posted February 20, 2021 Plumes look like 1-3” for ORD which seems right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 GFS/GFSv16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 been consistent for 3-4 days out. Hope for 3" with some convective type periods. Ending as drizzle. It was a good run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Looks like a quick hitting inch or two here followed by the thaw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 On 2/18/2021 at 10:23 AM, Chicago Storm said: Looks like a solid 2-5” event area wide. Looking $$ near and north of ~I-80. FGEN could even sneak some 6" amounts in IA/WI. Dynamics easily support swaths of 1-2"/hr given the instability and moisture available. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 8 hours ago, mimillman said: Plumes look like 1-3” for ORD which seems right Going 3 imby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Little quiet in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 17 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Little quiet in here yup, a 1"-3" wet snow on a warm front is grounds for disappointment. how fast things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 The start time has been getting progressively later. Looking like mid afternoon around here. First call of 2” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, madwx said: The start time has been getting progressively later. Looking like mid afternoon around here. First call of 2” Noticed that too. Some models don't really get it going until around 6 pm here. Given the bias with these types of events, would not be surprised at a little earlier start time. Assuming it stays snow for long enough, think I may be in a decent spot here. Should at least get in on some of those heavier rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 Still looks like there's support for heavy rates. The unknown is if we end up with 10:1 ratios or even a bit higher or decently under 10:1. The Kuchera snow maps are actually lower in this case than 10:1 because of marginal lower level temperatures. However, some of the Cobb outputs have greater than 10:1 for a time due to good lift aligned with the DGZ. 1-3" is a good call with potential for a swath of 3-4" where the favorable ingredients come together for a 2-4 hour window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Noticed that too. Some models don't really get it going until around 6 pm here. Given the bias with these types of events, would not be surprised at a little earlier start time. Assuming it stays snow for long enough, think I may be in a decent spot here. Should at least get in on some of those heavier rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted February 20, 2021 Share Posted February 20, 2021 On 2/19/2021 at 5:15 PM, btcs31 said: As a fellow non-model watcher who relies on screenshots from others here - thanks for speaking up! No problem my friend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 00z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 HRRR is driving rain pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 00z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Not expecting more then a DAB+ here but maybe we can squeeze out a few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 A McHenry Special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 There’s going to be a countywide band of overperformance where a connective band sets up. DBQ area looks prime for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Some lightning S of Omaha this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Northern burbs cash in on this one. This one's yours @McHenrySnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 nice of you t Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Northern burbs cash in on this one. This one's yours @McHenrySnow nice of you to throw him some wet table scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Council Bluffs down to 1/8 mile in some pretty hefty snow. Several other sites at 1/4 mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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