mimillman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I guess we have to wait and see if this trends any better. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Not a whole lot of time for heights to rebound after the system later this week. Looks like decent dynamics to work with and I'd say that I-80 northward is pretty safe to stay all snow... maybe even down to I-70 mostly snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 00z Euro op and UKMET were kind of disjointed and thus more paltry, but EPS was more similar to previous Euro runs. Trend is for more of a positively tilted short-wave scooting along. What I like in this setup is that it looks to be yet another one with steep to very steep mid-upper lapse rates. Also, guidance is showing a respectable PWAT plume. So, could be a relatively short duration but decent thump of warm advection snow. At this time, advisory type amounts are probably the ceiling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 slush bomb(firecracker?) ushering in the change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 A QUICK MOVING POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THE AREA SITUATED UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THERE HAS BEEN FAIRLY DECENT CONSISTENCY WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A HEAVIER WET SNOW VERSUS SOME OF THE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WE HAVE HAD THE PAST FEW WEEKS. A GOOD INDICATION THAT WE ARE TRENDING WARMER. STAY TUNED! LOT PM AFD....a chance to increase snow pack before some melting ensues. Guessing this will be peak. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 hours ago, Baum said: a chance to increase snow pack before some melting ensues. Guessing this will be peak. Think we peaked yesterday (Tuesday). MDW compacted by 3” between Tuesday and Wednesday, and with warmer temps on the way (at last) and the late Feb sun, we’ll lose a few more. Regardless, what a month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, tuanis said: Think we peaked yesterday (Tuesday). MDW compacted by 3” between Tuesday and Wednesday, and with warmer temps on the way (at last) and the late Feb sun, we’ll lose a few more. Regardless, what a month! lake fluff really compacts fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Imagine a thread on this event a month ago. Now nary a post. I always get a chuckle how events are viewed within the framework of a good run or a snow drought. We had the boards lit for 1" fluffers just weeks ago. Now: A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. - quad cities FINER SCALE IMPORTANT DETAILS WILL BE SORTED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT BIG PICTURE WISE, THINK THAT WHILE AMOUNTS PROBABLY HAVE AN UPPER LIMIT IN THE 2-4/3-5"- LOT via RC IT IS AMAZING WHAT WE ACCLIMATE TO AND HOW OUR PERCEPTIONS OF WARMTH CHANGE WITH THE SEASONS OR SUSTAINED STRETCHES OF EXTREMES- Des Moines 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 hours ago, Baum said: Imagine a thread on this event a month ago. Now nary a post. I always get a chuckle how events are viewed within the framework of a good run or a snow drought. We had the boards lit for 1" fluffers just weeks ago. Now: A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM TRACK AND THERMAL FIELDS. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND MODEL QPF WOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. - quad cities FINER SCALE IMPORTANT DETAILS WILL BE SORTED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT BIG PICTURE WISE, THINK THAT WHILE AMOUNTS PROBABLY HAVE AN UPPER LIMIT IN THE 2-4/3-5"- LOT via RC IT IS AMAZING WHAT WE ACCLIMATE TO AND HOW OUR PERCEPTIONS OF WARMTH CHANGE WITH THE SEASONS OR SUSTAINED STRETCHES OF EXTREMES- Des Moines This has the potential to be my biggest storm of the month, so I'm definitely watching it closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Looks like a solid 2-5” event area wide. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 There's some shades of February 4th here. Not gonna lock in rates that heavy yet, but duration should be better. Definitely ingredients for heavy snow with very steep mid-upper lapse rates, strong forcing for ascent (and very strong omega well enough aligned with DGZ), and solid moisture. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 ^sort of a bookend if I have events correct, which isn't easy. As the 4th ushered in the coldest of air, and this would essentially end that stretch. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 43 minutes ago, Baum said: ^sort of a bookend if I have events correct, which isn't easy. As the 4th ushered in the coldest of air, and this would essentially end that stretch. I was thinking the exact same thing. Picked up 3" in 1.5 hours during that event, 4.2" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Final call: 3.5" 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 yeah these kind of hits really do a nice job bumping up that water content 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Nothing like a nice caking to cap off an epic pattern for snowlovers in the sub. And I'll actually be back for this one. Of course very sad what is happening in Texas/south as a result of this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Nothing like a nice caking to cap off an epic pattern for snowlovers in the sub. And I'll actually be back for this one. Of course very sad what is happening in Texas/south as a result of this pattern. Yeah what a debacle down there. I have a cousin in the Houston metro area who lost power but fortunately not for very long. As for this system, definitely seeing the potential for good rates. At least a few inches looks like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Casual 1-pager for a 2-5" event. Nothin to see here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: There's some shades of February 4th here. Not gonna lock in rates that heavy yet, but duration should be better. Definitely ingredients for heavy snow with very steep mid-upper lapse rates, strong forcing for ascent (and very strong omega well enough aligned with DGZ), and solid moisture. lol... 5 weeks ago, we'd be losing it at this alone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 there he is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 59 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Hard to get hyped up on a wet noodle turd with a waa front coming in causing a melt. You could be right. Sometimes we get southern Ohio weather too. But it's okay too hope to maybe pull a quick 3"-5" er out of these set ups every now and than. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Baum said: You could be right. Sometimes we get southern Ohio weather too. But it's okay too hope to maybe pull a quick 3"-5" er out of these set ups every now and than. I'd be thrilled to get 3" - any more than that would be amazing. Sure, it's not going to get super cold afterward and it's going to be really wet with marginal temps, but, for me, anything beats the CAD I've had to endure the past 2 weeks. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 hour ago, McHenrySnow said: I'd be thrilled to get 3" - any more than that would be amazing. Sure, it's not going to get super cold afterward and it's going to be really wet with marginal temps, but, for me, anything beats the CAD I've had to endure the past 2 weeks. haha I know your a winter lover and Im sorry you've missed out on this pattern. For me over here in the GTA I will take this 2-5" wet snow on Sunday night/monday morning and hope its one of the last ones of the season. I hate March/April 2-4" slop that melt by 2pm and makes everything wet and muddy (I know its going to happen even if I dont want it to haha) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: haha I know your a winter lover and Im sorry you've missed out on this pattern. For me over here in the GTA I will take this 2-5" wet snow on Sunday night/monday morning and hope its one of the last ones of the season. I hate March/April 2-4" slop that melt by 2pm and makes everything wet and muddy (I know its going to happen even if I dont want it to haha) I would have preferred to cash in earlier, but I’ll take it whenever I can get it. I’m so sad it’s going to get above freezing soon! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Dab? zzz? when you're hot your hot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Quote Saturday night through Thursday... Forecast Highlights: * Accumulating snow and travel impacts likely Sunday through Sunday evening, with some heavier snow rates possible * Snowfall amounts forecast 1-3", though a swath of 3-4" continues to appear possible north of I-80 * Pattern change to milder conditions, Monday through Wednesday, with snow and ice melt during the daytime There haven`t been any noteworthy changes in the forecast from the previous full issuance, with the focus on yet another round of accumulating snow on Sunday, this time a wetter snow than most of the events during this remarkable stretch. Saturday evening will be the last chilly (mainly teens) one for a bit coming out of departing high pressure. Cloud cover is a bit uncertain and will determine if some favored outlying spots can get colder than forecast lows. Temperatures should remain steady or slowly rise the rest of the night as warm advection ramps up in advance of Sunday`s system. A sharp short-wave trough will eject out of the Central Plains and induce a robust low-level wind response, further increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent. The warm advection pattern will also steepen mid-upper level lapse rates. Guidance remains in decent overall agreement in the big picture, a relatively weak surface low approaching from the west and then tracking across southern or central Lake Michigan. The NAM, as is fairly typical at this range, appears to be a bit of a stronger and farther north/northwest outlier with the synoptic system and surface low track. See some similarities in this set-up to that of February 4th, which had a couple rounds of heavy to very heavy snow despite a less than ideal surface low track. Aiding in this somewhat similar scenario will the extensive, deep snowpack across the entire region, and antecedent dry air mass aloft left in the wake of the departing surface high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 As Ricky has mentioned a few times now, there are some similarities to the Feb 4 system (that produced widespread TSSN). Seeing thunderstorms with it already out over the Pacific, which is a good indicator of the steep lapse rates aloft. The dynamics with this look really good despite the trough being positively tilted, its 60KT LLJ will be tapping into some Gulf moisture, too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 I'm ready for one last parting shot before the warmth comes. Thanks for a fun winter, January and February! November and December, you can just go be boring somewhere else. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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