HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS trend below for ZR. Main thing I would note is this is not just CAD related. Notice the ZR line over the Miss Valley is trending SE as well, meaning the HP is pressing further south. The trend today is been to push this HP and corresponding cold front through a bit deeper. Setting up a more suppressed solution. From Apps runner, to Miller B to now a hybrid Miller A/B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, hickory said: If we were to compare this to past events what are we looking at? I know each event is different, but I’m curious. For example if you live in the Piedmont Triad could this be as bad as 2002? I consider 2002 to be the benchmark for ice storms. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Heads up guys, I just talked with Larry Cosgrove, he says the cold air damming is waayyyyy overdone by the models. Should be a cold rain for most .... ;-) :-0 (got to be a board oldtimer to appreciate that one) 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, beanskip said: Heads up guys, I just talked with Larry Cosgrove, he says the cold air damming is waayyyyy overdone by the models. Should be a cold rain for most .... ;-) :-0 (got to be a board oldtimer to appreciate that one) I HOPE YOU GET AN INCH OF ICE. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Heads up guys, I just talked with Larry Cosgrove, he says the cold air damming is waayyyyy overdone by the models. Should be a cold rain for most .... ;-) :-0 (got to be a board oldtimer to appreciate that one) I will beat Brandon and Jeremy to wish an inch of ice on you. Or not,lol. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 He said that to me. That pompous azz lol. My brother still laughs at me about it. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said: I will beat Brandon and Jeremy to wish an inch of ice on you. Or not,lol. Funny thing is, I think someone in the upstate got close to an inch that storm. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Funny thing is, I think someone in the upstate got close to an inch that storm. It was like 2005. Was prob the last good ZR storm i've seen. I was home for winter break from UNCG. I'm sure I said something smartazz to get him to say that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Hey y’all, based on these trends, should I go ahead and tell my mom in Durham County (about 5 miles NW of the city) to prepare to lose power? Or would that be jumping the gun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, featherwx said: Hey y’all, based on these trends, should I go ahead and tell my mom in Durham County (about 5 miles NW of the city) to prepare to lose power? Or would that be jumping the gun? Plan on it but don’t count on it. I’m 7 miles NW and it definitely looks suboptimal here given today’s trends. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said: I was in the heart of that one. Was more of an in-situ damming situation and precip came just as the right time. There was literally no wind with that one. Still I lost power and lots of tree limbs. Was pretty bad by W-S standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, burrel2 said: Nam is warming Athens, Georgia from 31/19 Wednesday morning to 49/33 under north East winds. I find it odd that the wetbulb Would rise that much with a northeasterly feed. I could see things verifying dryer/colder Wednesday for wedge areas. Something to watch Ne ga appears to be on the edge (as usual lol) and another close call. If the trends continue hopefully there will be more frozen precip in ne ga. A lot of the storms this year didn’t trend enough at the end. However the snow a couple of Saturdays ago worked out for a change. With so much volatility and as close as some areas are I just hope things clarify a bit over night. Otherwise another now cast for some of us as a degree or two could make a pretty big difference. I was surprised to see parts of the upstate and Rabun cty with a wsw this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowDawg said: This for sure! Remember this is what all the models, I mean every single one, missed on for our snow event. They all underestimated the dry air at the surface by a significant margin leading to a stronger in-situ wedge and a busted forecast for most of them. Lol ditto. I should have kept reading before posting a reply to Burrell lol. Looks like clayton is in a good spot for this. Habersham usually does pretty well in cad events but doesn’t look like it as much this time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: He said that to me. That pompous azz lol. My brother still laughs at me about it. That was an all time classic. And yes there was an inch in quite a few place in ne ga and the upstate. One of the biggest ice storms I have been in. it was December 05 I think. ps is there a way to edit/copy or merge posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS gives RDU .35 of ZR NAM says .07" ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: 3K NAM getting worse here instead of better. Does show a little more sleet along the Blue Ridge That’s pretty good resolution. It’s picking up Paris Mtn in central Greenville Co in Sc ( the highest elevation around to be ice and not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 50 minutes ago, beanskip said: Heads up guys, I just talked with Larry Cosgrove, he says the cold air damming is waayyyyy overdone by the models. Should be a cold rain for most .... ;-) :-0 (got to be a board oldtimer to appreciate that one) Classic just classic! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: He said that to me. That pompous azz lol. My brother still laughs at me about it. Hickory. That storm made you famous. I was also without power for 5 days. That’s why I’m cringing when I hear people say that those high ice totals don’t happen. We got 3/4 in of ice from that storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We need to remember that this high isnt nearly as transient as with recent storms. It’s much easier to lock in a long duration event when we have a feed of dry air from the north. I’m nervous about this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said: Hickory. That storm made you famous. I was also without power for 5 days. That’s why I’m cringing when I people say that those high ice totals don’t happen. We got 3/4 in of ice from that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Accuweather thoughts: Can't wait for DT's 5" mega ice storm map! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Accuweather thoughts: Can't wait for DT's 5" mega ice storm map! Pretty sure that’s not nearly far enough into north central NC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 We almost always have our thermostat at 65 in the winter. We’re warming up to 70 for this just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Any thoughts on why RAH left Davidson and Randolph out of the watch? Out of 6 or 7 models, 100% give warning criteria ice to at least part of the county. Seems like a no brainer to me. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Tonight's model runs will be pretty telling. Will it continue to trend south and colder? Could there be more sleet for I 40 north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Was talking with Brad P. over twitter asked him about his thoughts for Hickory west into Burke county. Asked him if he thought 0.25 to 0.50 was possible he said yes and could see those totals trends a little further south. Going to be interesting to say the least. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 DT's fearless forecast! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 DT is SUCH a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, MichaelJ said: DT is SUCH a I will take my forecasted 3 inches of snow thank you very much! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Both maps above are clearly drawn based on geographic norms and have little to do with current modeling. I mean accuweathers significant icing area is one of the lowest areas on current models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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