BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, hickory said: If we were to compare this to past events what are we looking at? I know each event is different, but I’m curious. For example if you live in the Piedmont Triad could this be as bad as 2002? I consider 2002 to be the benchmark for ice storms. This has every bit the potential of being as bad as 2002, maybe worse because you won’t lose QPF to snow and sleet. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I mean if the RGEM or ICON is right, this is a generational ice event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The 18z NAM brought more IP than ZR up this way on this run, which lowered our ZR some but still a lot to cause damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looks like I will be headed toward the Triad for drone shots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtgus Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Looks like I will be headed toward the Triad for drone shots. What kind of liquor is used in a drone shot? 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Nam is warming Athens, Georgia from 31/19 Wednesday morning to 49/33 under north East winds. I find it odd that the wetbulb Would rise that much with a northeasterly feed. I could see things verifying dryer/colder Wednesday for wedge areas. Something to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I mean if the RGEM or ICON is right, this is a generational ice event. 1”+ totals, if realized, would destroy the energy grid. That’s enough to down wires without any trees being involved. Generational would be an understatement. Look what <0.50” just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Nam is warming Athens, Georgia from 31/19 Wednesday morning to 49/33 under north East winds. I find it odd that the wetbulb Would rise that much with a northeasterly feed. I could see things verifying dryer/colder Wednesday for wedge areas. Something to watch This for sure! Remember this is what all the models, I mean every single one, missed on for our snow event. They all underestimated the dry air at the surface by a significant margin leading to a stronger in-situ wedge and a busted forecast for most of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David6310 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, hickory said: If we were to compare this to past events what are we looking at? I know each event is different, but I’m curious. For example if you live in the Piedmont Triad could this be as bad as 2002? I consider 2002 to be the benchmark for ice storms. was this a December 2002 storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 1”+ totals, if realized, would destroy the energy grid. That’s enough to down wires without any trees being involved. Generational would be an understatement. Look what <0.50” just did Totally agree, but I think you would also agree to approach this forecast with some skepticism. Nothing has worked out this year as modeled. Both temps and QPF forecasts have proven to be quite unreliable. If our winter trends hold we will end up with an event like we had over the weekend. If the models bust in the wrong direction this time, then yes, generational will be an understatement. I'm going to be leaning heavily on the HRRR and ICON again on this one. The NAM isn't screaming warm nose as much as it was previously, so I'm crossing my fingers that 75% of what falls in the Triad will be sleet. Time will tell. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Pulling for sleet, but heading out to try to find a new bar and a couple of chains for my chainsaw. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Totally agree, but I think you would also agree to approach this forecast with some skepticism. Nothing has worked out this year as modeled. Both temps and QPF forecasts have proven to be quite unreliable. If our winter trends hold we will end up with an event like we had over the weekend. If the models bust in the wrong direction this time, then yes, generational will be an understatement. I'm going to be leaning heavily on the HRRR and ICON again on this one. The NAM isn't screaming warm nose as much as it was previously, so I'm crossing my fingers that 75% of what falls in the Triad will be sleet. Time will tell. Your comments about the NAM should be bolded. Ignore the NAM from here on out at your own peril. I've been burned too many times trusting other models when the NAM is the king of warm nose forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 RGEM looks like it lost some qpf or is it showing more sleet? Anyone have the 18z RGEM Sleet Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: Totally agree, but I think you would also agree to approach this forecast with some skepticism. Nothing has worked out this year as modeled. Both temps and QPF forecasts have proven to be quite unreliable. If our winter trends hold we will end up with an event like we had over the weekend. If the models bust in the wrong direction this time, then yes, generational will be an understatement. I'm going to be leaning heavily on the HRRR and ICON again on this one. The NAM isn't screaming warm nose as much as it was previously, so I'm crossing my fingers that 75% of what falls in the Triad will be sleet. Time will tell. This. Freezing rain maps are BY FAR the most unreliable maps produced by forecast models. Freezing rain is self limiting and highly dependent on both mid levels and BL temp. There is no algorithm that could possibly predict the variables that need to be accounted for in actual ice accrual that could be applied to every situation. CAD events are even more difficult because of the localized nature and remarkable number of variables that any location has for ice to accumulate. However, seeing these extreme totals on many different models suites and cutting them in half still gets us over 0.5” for many areas. IMO, this storm has a real threat to be one where some areas to see high end amounts we normally regurgitate as garbage from the models. Surface cold between 28-30, light precip for a large portion of the storm, and thermal profile that is not conducive for sleet make the Triad in an extremely high risk area for a high-end ice event. This storm, unlike the last one, has an incredibly high ceiling for ice impacts. I think anyone in the Triad should be prepared for extended outages and making preparations accordingly at this juncture. The trends across all modeling have not stopped and it is becoming clear that a significant ice storm is on the way. Do we cross into the generational category? That’s tbd but this has a real threat to do so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NWS out of Blacksburg latest thinking Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: NWS out of Blacksburg latest thinking Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Hopefully some of that comes as sleet but sheesh, an entire forecast area in the dark if that panned out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, The Alchemist said: Sitting in Pardee in H’ville NC waiting on my gallbladder surgery to start at 5.... really worried about this one, Saluda NC hasn’t seen a bad ice storm since late January 2010 and I think we are due... wife is out stocking up on food, and had a friend prep my generator... I.m ready but post surgery limitation will prevent any heavy work for three weeks... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I hope everything goes well!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: RGEM looks like it lost some qpf or is it showing more sleet? Anyone have the 18z RGEM Sleet Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, NCSNOW said: This is likely overdone for Wake right? Or cold biased? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Jesus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, CaryWx said: This is likely overdone for Wake right? Or cold biased? All of the above. But I wouldn’t rule out warning criteria ice either. It looks like I may be living in front of the fireplace for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Would like to see sleet totals, not ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Hopefully some of that comes as sleet but sheesh, an entire forecast area in the dark if that panned out Another negative aspect this time is with the record cold and storms over much of the country the usual caravans of power trucks coming into the affected area to help restore power will probably not be available. If a large part of the grid does go down it could be a long time before power is fully restored. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 If you don't have generator, I would recommend going out and buying a camping stove. I think the ones that run on gasses other than propane can be used indoors if in a well ventilated area, but don't quote me on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 world Famous 18z GFS comes south/Lines up with the Canadian Suite now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, olafminesaw said: If you don't have generator, I would recommend going out and buying a camping stove. I think the ones that run on gasses other than propane can be used indoors if in a well ventilated area, but don't quote me on that. I would be very careful with that. I’m lucky to have ventless gas logs hooked to a just filled 500 gallon propane tank. It gives off more than enough heat to keep much of the house comfortable and the rest livable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sounds like a broken record today but 18z GFS continues to trend colder and further south with freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 28 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: RGEM looks like it lost some qpf or is it showing more sleet? Anyone have the 18z RGEM Sleet Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: world Famous 18z GFS comes south/Lines up with the Canadian Suite now Boy if this comes to fruition even half of it I feel for people to my south. This again will be one hell of a sleet storm up this way if it pans out. Blacksburg had a good forecast discussion where it talks about fzra being able to accrue radially. So in theory if you got 1” you could only accrue 40% of that on the limbs etc.. would still be lights out but def concerning reading something like that. When I was younger we had a storm deliver .75” of fzra to our house in CT and were without power for over a week. Post storm was 50-60 mph winds. Thank god my father had a generator and a wood stove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: That would save many folks from widespread damage. And...provide amazing sledding opportunities. Glaze of freezing rain over a base of sleet?! 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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