WSNC Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Taking just 25% of RGEM totals would still be worst ice storm I've had since 2002. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We may just have killed this thing off by starting a thread (I'm not complaining about it). Or not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: ouch. Gfs just did a bunch of us a non favor. Lot of fzra instead of sleet that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Man, 850’s are an absolute torch on both NAM and GFS. With the lack of an apps runner, what is causing this surge? I think combined with heavier rates that leads to higher BL temps on some modeling as it eats into the wedge from above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Winter Storm watch expanded to now include everybody N&W of 40/85 and then after the split, N of 85. Nothing for Wake or Chatham or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NCZ008>010-023>025-170400- /O.EXA.KRAH.WS.A.0002.210218T0500Z-210219T0500Z/ Granville-Vance-Warren-Alamance-Orange-Durham- Including the cities of Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson, Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, and Rougemont 1046 AM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Winter Storm watch expanded to now include everybody N&W of 40/85 and then after the split, N of 85. Nothing for Wake or Chatham or east. Yep, this watch aligns well with modeling for this event. Think northern parts of Wake could be near the warning threshold though given current looks. RAH is staying on top of this one, unlike the last one where it felt they were more reactive once the precipitation started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Man, 850’s are an absolute torch on both NAM and GFS. With the lack of an apps runner, what is causing this surge? I think combined with heavier rates that leads to higher BL temps on some modeling as it eats into the wedge from above. I dunno why. But wowzers. Those are some dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 "Well, maybe the para wont be as bad" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I think Wake will get a WWA probably tonight or tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: I think Wake will get a WWA probably tonight or tomorrow morning. I don’t want to get too IMBY specific, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Wake got a warning just due to northern part of the county. Obviously most of the county would not verify, but based on what I’m seeing this event definitely looks to be more impactful further south and east than the last one. Raleigh proper I wouldn’t expect much in besides a light glaze, however. Could change but I had written the last one off already at this time. This one still piques my interest for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: I don’t want to get too IMBY specific, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Wake got a warning just due to northern part of the county. Obviously most of the county would not verify, but based on what I’m seeing this event definitely looks to be more impactful further south and east than the last one. Raleigh proper I wouldn’t expect much in besides a light glaze, however. Could change but I had written the last one off already at this time. This one still piques my interest for mby and conversely, I assume our watch currently is for N of 40 in Durham maybe even N of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Are we buying the 850 torch? That doesn't seem to make a ton of sense with the other variables with the system being a non Apps runner. I'm over here praying for sleet so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The RDPS(think RGEM HRRR) is super cold at the surface. As cold or colder than the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Assuming the 850's are 10c, how would that impact accretion vs a storm with 4c at 850? Assume the surface is 30. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: ICON is a HELLACIOUS ice storm. It actually has lighter precipitation for a long duration before bringing the firehose, IE efficient ice accumulation for extended period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Seems like there should be some thundersleet in there somewhere? Some very heavy bands setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Assuming the 850's are 10c, how would that impact accretion vs a storm with 4c at 850? Assume the surface is 30. TW In general 850 temps that high would prevent much accrual. For this reason, I think they will break one way or the other. My guess is they will be closer to 4-6C since the trend is towards a colder solution/suppressed SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: In general 850 temps that high would prevent much accrual. For this reason, I think they will break one way or the other. My guess is they will be closer to 4-6C since the trend is towards a colder solution/suppressed SLP. +10 850’s would seem to be anomalous in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ouch!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Not that anyone Cares about RAP.... but at 21hrs (end of its Range) it does have the HP on IL/KY/IN (Evansville IN) border where GFS has it way over Columbus-Canton OH. That’s 300-350 Miles Further SW you’d have to think that may make a difference in a scenario like that down the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I live near the RDU airport, so I'm on the edge. I'm planning on relocating North towards creedmoor or NW of wake forest sometime this summer. If the plague leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 If I was making a forecast for this based on WSW criteria at this juncture, I’d draw a line from Henderson to Hickory. North of that would be a WSW with a >50% confidence of verifying. Go one county south and east (watches just issued) and I would put your odds of verifying at 30-50%, decreasing from NW to SE. Next tier of counties (including Wake) just outside the current watch would be <30%. WSW gradient would likely be somewhere in the most recent watches posted (like Durham county). Thats how I see things and I think RAH has it right. GSP seems to be waiting to pull the trigger but I would expect watches with the afternoon package. To be frank, I’m surprised RAH issued watches this early in the game. They usually are more conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The RDPS(think RGEM HRRR) is super cold at the surface. As cold or colder than the RGEM. Drops .5" of precip in three hours with temps at 27 in grrensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 ICON keeps much of Triad in the 29-30 range for much of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I live near the RDU airport, so I'm on the edge. I'm planning on relocating North towards creedmoor or NW of wake forest sometime this summer. If the plague leaves. You should look into North Durham County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Guys, the RGEM is almost always overdone on the temps and amount of qpf so I would disregard it for the present. Same goes for the 12KM NAM, use the 3KM because of it's higher resolution hones in more on the 2meter temps. The 3K NAM shows Triad mostly in the 31-33 temp range during a lot of the storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: You should look into North Durham County. I do like the Hillsborough area a lot. The wife will have her say lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just my thinking, the RDPS does run to cold at times... but even if u add 1-2 degrees to it , it's a bad deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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