PantherJustin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Almost looks like the triad and most of central NC is getting dryslotted! Ugh!! These models are so bad right now. Absolutely horrible. It’s insane how they can be so far off .... we may as well just go back to checking barometric pressure and guessing off a telegram sent from DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I like Brad and IK he’s just trying to “Calm the Nerves” of Meck Ppl but this is false. Everywhere around him is 30/31 in Iredell/Rowan/Parts of Lincoln/N Meck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Looking like a significant forecast bust for the triad. I’m not seeing the moisture that was supposed to be there. Good for people who like power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Horrible bust for DC/Baltimore area, which is getting pelted with sleet and freezing rain instead of predicted inches of snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheels2 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Im in Rolesville and we already have more than we had last event. Nice glaze on trees and the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Absolutely horrible. It’s insane how they can be so far off .... we may as well just go back to checking barometric pressure and guessing off a telegram sent from DC All the global models depicted this dry slot fairly well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Roads wet here in N. Raleigh, made it to work with no issues. 32 degrees and pleased with no ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 So far I have seen about .10" on elevated surfaces and the grass is crunchy when walked on. Roads have no issues. The temperature and dew point have been slowly rising since 6:15am when they were at 29.8/29.1. Currently 30.6/29.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 So if the models are horrid due to the lack of aviation data inputs, why arw they seemingly always forecasting the higher impact solutions first? Seems like the clown maps have been on steroids this year only to come up, not only short, but in some cases empty. If lack of data is the issue you would think we would bust the other way sometimes too. Or are model biases being exposed by lack of data? I'm so far above my pay grade here, but would love to know more. For once I think the TV mets have an easy job. Just take the historical avg and roll with it. Because more often than not that seems to be the solution. We expected generational, historical, biblical.......we got a glaze. Should have put this in the whining thread, sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Getting a little hairy in statesville. already some light accums from this morning now experiencing some heavy freezing rain sitting below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 31.8/31 here. Maybe a glaze in the tree tops? Moderate rainfall right now.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: All the global models depicted this dry slot fairly well... I trust you Burrell, but I'll be darned if I can recall even one mention of a dryslot on this event. The QPF forecast was solid. Only the NAM even hinted late in the game that the QPF may be lighter than expected. If I missed it I'm sorry. This is so frustrating to see so many people plan for the absolute worst over and over again for next to nothing. Because next time we know they wont prepare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Everything is on schedule here. Coated up and heavy bands getting ready to roll through 9-12pm. Then anoyher round in the early morning tommorow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Put a fork in this one for the foothills. Up to 32.9 and going between heavy and very heavy returns already over .4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just over a glaze so far here on the west side of Winston, measured 0.06”. The grass even has some accural. Temp 31.3/30.4 and slowly rising from a low of 30.4 at 5am this morning. Light frz rain/mist at the moment with moderate returns filling in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, kvegas-wx said: I trust you Burrell, but I'll be darned if I can recall even one mention of a dryslot on this event. The QPF forecast was solid. Only the NAM even hinted late in the game that the QPF may be lighter than expected. If I missed it I'm sorry. This is so frustrating to see so many people plan for the absolute worst over and over again for next to nothing. Because next time we know they wont prepare. I have an office job with Duke energy and only occasionally get called in for storm duty, but I’ve been on call since 5pm yesterday and know we brought crews up from Florida for this event. Over preparation beats being surprised, but yea, could be a lot of wasted man hours and time on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 32 with ZR. At this point we have about as much glaze as we ended with last weekend. Looks like a couple more hours of it (perhaps). Not going to be devastating here by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 30.6/27.1. Freezing drizzle. 0.10” ice so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 28.8 and absolutely pouring down sleet outside. Roads covered and everything is a sheet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 this is one i'm glad is busting for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Horrible bust for DC/Baltimore area, which is getting pelted with sleet and freezing rain instead of predicted inches of snow. Yep. Upstream shows that mid levels were indeed even warmer than expected. However, temps at the surface have not been the issue. If anything, we (Raleigh) are running a bit below what the models had for us. We’ve been fluctuating between 31.4-31.6 here for a while and have a solid glaze. I think if more precip was involved this would have verified. Funny we were all worried about temps busting but looks like it was precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tealsnowball Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Welp. Could be lights out soon. Freezing rain continues to pour down. Holding steady at 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Getting a nice glaze over the last hour or so down here in Willow Spring, southern Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSchew Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 NAM is teasing us with a cold air chasing moisture scenario on Friday morning... Temps in the low-mid 30s in the blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Lost power for a bit in Maggie around 5:00 this morning. Branches falling around me. I don’t get to go anywhere for a little while. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 32.1 in Cary, spots of ice on the deck. The tops of the trees have a good coating of ice, visible on the pines. With the laser thermometer, deck temp reads 29, and the trees show 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Another spectacular bust here. 32.7 and rain is over. No glaze. 4 winter storm warnings this winter. 0 have verified 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summey Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Ice accumulating & 30 in Hillsborough. Not as much (yet) as last week but looks like a few more hours of this could ge messy. Hopefully temp will tick upwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 https://postimg.cc/WD9bxr1L Starting to get some sagginess to the trees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Definitely a glaze now, but no danger of any significant ice accumulations. Temp has risen to 32.0. This thing is over here. Another WSW that proves to be a nothing-burger. The best winter weather we have had was the unwarned 2.5-inch surprise snowstorm we had in the middle of the night back in January. Go figure.Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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