BooneWX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: There are several stations in N.Catawba already reading 31.2-31.8. Clouds are starting to roll in so I expect that to jump up some in the next hour. 5-7 mph stiff NNE wind. I’m down to 29.8 just to the west of Hickory 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: There are several stations in N.Catawba already reading 31.2-31.8. Clouds are starting to roll in so I expect that to jump up some in the next hour. 5-7 mph stiff NNE wind. I’ve been stuck at 35/36 clouds here now .... It’s right there though Troutman 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Any chance sleet could over-perform in Winston? I know soundings are trash. Even if for first thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, eyewall said: I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now. It should be the expectation as often as we see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, eyewall said: I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now. If that means cold rain in Triad sign me up. Versus ZR. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, eyewall said: I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now. They have already scaled back. This is definitely a bigger chance of impact for my area than the last 2 FZRA systems. However, I'm expecting nothing more than a glaze to .1" in Wake, other than perhaps the extreme NW corner. I'm completely fine with that since it is just freezing rain with no snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now. I understand, but what causes the 24hr swings? I mean should we just take the most southerly trend and push it back 50 miles even before guidance does? Basically I’m trying to understand what happened since 11 last night to cause it ..... is it as simple as Climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I’m down to 29.8 just to the west of HickoryThat’s crazy! I’m in southern Caldwell east of 321 and I’m at 34.2/26.7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: I understand, but what causes the 24hr swings? I mean should we just take the most southerly trend and push it back 50 miles even before guidance does? Basically I’m trying to understand what happened since 11 last night to cause it ..... is it as simple as Climo? It's all part of forecasting. Not just interpreting the models, but trying to predict ahead of time where they will end up at go time. Not easy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, AirNelson39 said: That’s crazy! I’m in southern Caldwell east of 321 and I’m at 34.2/26.7 That’s a wild difference but we kinda sit in a small valley between two creeks. I consistently run 3-4 degrees below the airport each night. It’s a weird little microclimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 36/27 Winds NE 5mph Cloudy. 15 miles NE of Greensboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 That’s crazy! I’m in southern Caldwell east of 321 and I’m at 34.2/26.7Back up to 35.2/26.1 temps are on a kiddie roller coaster tonight lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Setting aside the noise in the models, 35/22 i(at the airport) s a pretty good place to be (several degrees cooler than the HRRR). My only thought is if precip holds back, dewpoints may have a chance to creep up without a corresponding drop in temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Still stars and moon here in Kvegas just east of Winston. Breeze makes it quite a chilly evening. 35 and static electricity dewpoints. I think we got this one in our sights. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, griteater said: It's all part of forecasting. Not just interpreting the models, but trying to predict ahead of time where they will end up at go time. Not easy True, I guess as someone who’s still rather new.... What happens to cause the NW Shift back majority of the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 33.8/23.6 with mostly cloudy skies. Winds are light and variable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King of Surl Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 My temp outdoors is 39 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Still stars and moon here in Kvegas just east of Winston. Breeze makes it quite a chilly evening. 35 and static electricity dewpoints. I think we got this one in our sights. Just went out and put the covers on the car's side mirrors and windshield. I'm 5 miles north of Kville and wondering if I should have forced wife to bale out and gotten ourselves a hotel down south somewhere for the duration. Too much politics involved in marrying a farmer's daughter who was raised to tough things out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Temp continues to rise, now 36.1/26 3 miles NE of HKY airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 33.3/23.9 as of 10:18 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 35/26 statesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 34/26 Marion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonah Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just got back to my apartment. Thin clouds filling in. 31.6/18 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 34.0/26.0 four miles north of Kville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: Temp continues to rise, now 36.1/26 3 miles NE of HKY airport. Likewise here. 36.1/27. This is going the wrong way for ice accumulation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 37.6/26.5 in AdvanceSent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 30.2/21.9 here south of Boone. Good luck to everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kc4wsd Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Eden, NC:Currently 34.3/23.8, a gain of 1.1/0.5 in the past thirty minutes. Humidity at 65% and barometer holding steady at 29.66 under cloudy skies here in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 40s still in Raleigh lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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