frazdaddy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said: Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow Was going to make the run to my sons place in Purcellville. Looks like he will get some ice with this as well so staying put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said: Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow I'm in Cary and not really changing any of my MO for this event if that means anything wrt to your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said: Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow Actually, snow then lots of sleet and ice expected in the DMV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens 95 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Actually, snow then lots of sleet and ice expected in the DMV Hope it crushes DC, supposed to head up there Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wedge really building in at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Are DP’s going to continue to drop throughout the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Actually, snow then lots of sleet and ice expected in the DMV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wetbulbs are quite balmy This Morning: Now: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The air outside just feels different than it did before the last 2 systems. It is a different kind of cold, feels really dry as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Boy.. forecasted high of 39 today. Just got to 32.0 and 17.9 dew point. Also @HKY_WX I’m patiently waiting for that map you said you were going to post today. Haven’t seen one of your maps in awhile. Let’s me know you see this being a major player. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro doesn't even really drop it below freezing here and it definitely is warmer 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro doesn't even really drop it below freezing here and it definitely is warmer High elevation. The cold dense air is sinking past you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtgus Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Alamance-Burlington just cancelled school for tomorrow. They even cancelled the online classes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Euro doesn't even really drop it below freezing here and it definitely is warmer Looking at the Euro at this point is going to be a bit coarse and granular. Sort of like counting hairs on someone’s head with a wide angle lens a quarter mile away. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: High elevation. The cold dense air is sinking past you. I'm at 1,250 so no. Most models are showing a weaker wedge and higher dewpoints 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 925 850 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 As I mentioned earlier, the southward trend has definitely stabilized and even reversed in some instances. No changes to my earlier map. But gut says its going to be difficult to get the Hwy74 corridor below freezing for any real long length of time. We will see. **Edited to clarify Hwy 74 corridor Gastonia-CLT-Monroe** 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WeatherWeenie87 said: Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. The storm is 18 hours away and you're calling it a bust? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: 925 850 NAM3k is lightly cooler overall at 18z at 850 than above depiction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WeatherWeenie87 said: Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. The wet bulb map will be pretty useless until we see how much quick cooling we see early this evening before clouds thicken up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 As I mentioned earlier, the southward trend has definitely stabilized and even reversed in some instances. No changes to my earlier map. But gut says its going to be difficult to get the Hwy74 corridor below freezing for any real long length of time. We will see. **Edited to clarify Hwy 74 corridor Gastonia-CLT-Monroe**Matt, same idea as you head west on 74 back into Cleveland and Rutherford?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, strongwxnc said: Matt, same idea as you head west on 74 back into Cleveland and Rutherford? . I am leaving things status quo for now....but the warmer solutions are especially evident around the CLT metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The storm is 18 hours away and you're calling it a bust? don't see where he called it a bust, just giving his opinion...as everyone else is. Honestly, not getting half an inch of ice isn't what i'd call a bust anyways...id call it a blessing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Brad P tweeted out that model output is garbage at this point. Gotta look upstream where the cold air is coming from. Real observations. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said: NAM3k is lightly cooler overall at 18z at 850 than above depiction. NAM 3k running close or a little warmer with pocket of warmer temps in SW NC. It depends upon sounding location that you pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said: Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. No way..... CAD is normally Better than Modeled. I would Think Anyone North of HWY73/152 will be just fine as far as Cold those areas always stay Colder longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: The storm is 18 hours away and you're calling it a bust? Some people never learn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 32 currently, NWS has my high at 39, that ain’t happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: No way..... CAD is normally Better than Modeled. I would Think Anyone North of HWY73/152 will be just fine as far as Cold those areas always stay Colder longer. 11 minutes ago, msuwx said: The wet bulb map will be pretty useless until we see how much quick cooling we see early this evening before clouds thicken up. We will see. I'm sticking with my thoughts. I respect your opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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