wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I think you’re seeing a consolidation on models to a 30-32 (average) degree storm with 0.25-0.50 accrual. Once again I think ice accrual will be minimal here in the valley with up to. 25 on ridge tops and more above 3k along the escarpment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RDPS trending slightly warmer as well +++ I don't see it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Lee dry slot starting to show on RGEM. Anybody who lives near it knows it's legit in winter storms! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Models trending warmer at the last minute, no way! Shouldn't complain though could save me from days of power issues. Last 2 NAM runs have ticked warmer Any chance they go back the other way? Really hope they do for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, wxduncan said: Any chance they go back the other way? Really hope they do for my area. I'd say they are coming to a consensus now, not so many crazy amounts of ice showing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Latest WPC guidance shows roughly 20 - 70% chance of .10" across Wake from southeast to northwest. Slightly lower for .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Someone mentioned it yesterday, but timing and precip intensity is playing some havoc on these accrual maps. It's probably going to bounce around until gametime tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Well at least the Burke WX and others are upping totals along with GSP/Brad P and others. Still have fate. That just come out from Burke WX/Foothills Weather Network there very close to what Brad P is saying of 0.30 to 0.50 from Marion,Moranton,Hickory and points North and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I need to start using whatever model suite you guys are using Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I posted this a couple hours ago... ”This is my map, prior to the mid-morning model guidance arriving. I reserve the right to adjust if necessary later today. As usual, the area of highest uncertainty is at the fringes of the sub-freezing air, which unfortunately includes the CLT and RDU metros. Those in the red-shaded area especially, be prepared for the potential of power outages. Once you start getting ice accumulations above 0.25", the power grid begins to experience failures.“ 10 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, msuwx said: I posted this a couple hours ago... ”This is my map, prior to the mid-morning model guidance arriving. I reserve the right to adjust if necessary later today. As usual, the area of highest uncertainty is at the fringes of the sub-freezing air, which unfortunately includes the CLT and RDU metros. Those in the red-shaded area especially, be prepared for the potential of power outages. Once you start getting ice accumulations above 0.25", the power grid begins to experience failures.“ Thanks Matt. Going to be a rough situation for a bunch of north carolinians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3rd or 4th run in a row on the RGEM with over an inch of accrual here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Some bright sunshine here in the Triad for a few hours today may help the road situation tonight a bit. But we are nearing the time for OBS with only a few model runs left. Generators were flying off the shelves this morning at Lowes in GSO. They sold 8 while I was standing there. Lets get this over with. I'm ready for 50's and sunshine next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Some bright sunshine here in the Triad for a few hours today may help the road situation tonight a bit. But we are nearing the time for OBS with only a few model runs left. Generators were flying off the shelves this morning at Lowes in GSO. They sold 8 while I was standing there. Lets get this over with. I'm ready for 50's and sunshine next week. I was going to run over to Home Depot on Battleground for some new work gloves, but I’m not eager to fight the anxious mobs. (My old ones will do.) My neighbor had the foresight to schedule a major tree pruning and cutting this morning to avoid the worst. I’ve been watching the crew cutting away. I’m also waiting on my propane guy to come top my tank off. The more prepared the people around you are, the easier it is for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Tip: You can always try pawn shops for this equipment as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, msuwx said: I posted this a couple hours ago... ”This is my map, prior to the mid-morning model guidance arriving. I reserve the right to adjust if necessary later today. As usual, the area of highest uncertainty is at the fringes of the sub-freezing air, which unfortunately includes the CLT and RDU metros. Those in the red-shaded area especially, be prepared for the potential of power outages. Once you start getting ice accumulations above 0.25", the power grid begins to experience failures.“ Looks good my area just west of Hickory and is line with Burke WX, Brad P ,GSP and a couple others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Once again I think ice accrual will be minimal here in the valley with up to. 25 on ridge tops and more above 3k along the escarpment I hope you're right, given my fondness for electricity and its numerous benefits. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Anyone have the sleet maps from the 12Z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Brad Panovich said he is very concerned that the modelling is underestimating the depth of cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Brad Panovich said he is very concerned that the modelling is underestimating the depth of cold air. Down in Catawba Valley the NE wind does a particular bite to it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Brad Panovich said he is very concerned that the modelling is underestimating the depth of cold air. Not that it matters .... but I’m still at 35/22 Forecast high was 45-47 ... idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens 95 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Anyone have thoughts on whether the ice sinks in to Moore County. New here so still learning the climo. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said: Anyone have thoughts on whether the ice sinks in to Moore County. New here so still learning the climo. Thanks! I think the ice mostly stays north of 64 with the worst of it north of 85. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said: Anyone have thoughts on whether the ice sinks in to Moore County. New here so still learning the climo. Thanks! You will be fine down there. You need to be north of I 40 and west of Rt 1 to get Ice in this type of system. You may see some glaze but nothing to worry about NINJA'D by bullcity lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens 95 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Avdave said: You will be fine down there. You need to be north of I 40 and west of Rt 1 to get Ice in this type of system. You may see some glaze but nothing to worry about NINJA'D by bullcity lol Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said: Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow Yeah usually that is how it works up there, I moved here from Leesburg so I know what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: I think the ice mostly stays north of 64 with the worst of it north of 85. Basically about where you are but worse a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens 95 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Avdave said: Yeah usually that is how it works up there, I moved here from Leesburg so I know what you mean. Purcellville for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, PantherJustin said: Not that it matters .... but I’m still at 35/22 Forecast high was 45-47 ... idk forecast high for me today was 42, im sitting at 40 right now and the suns out. It was colder this morning than was expected though. My low for today says 32 but it was 26 degrees here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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