NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Here we go again. Winter storm watches up for some areas already. RAH starting to sound the alarm on this morning’s discussion. Hoping those who got hit last weekend somehow avoid another major ice event but the modeling is painting an icy picture at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The WPC has my freezing rain/ice forecast percentages for Thursday as: 80% for >0.10” 60% for >0.25” 30% for >0.50” 5% for >1.00” I’m ready for spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Going to be more 35 degree rain for Charlotte it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6z 12k NAM went up to .55 ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I suspect watches will begin to spread out just a bit with the afternoon package. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: 6z 12k NAM went up to .55 ice. This wedge definitely looks to keep parts of the triangle in play for significant icing, even down to Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 RAH is sounding the alarm. WSW now in place for their farthest NW counties including the Triad and Roxboro. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of at least one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...Person, Forsyth and Guilford Counties. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We can hope that rates limit ice accretion to some degree and maybe—just maybe—the weakest limbs fell this past weekend. I bet the hardware stores will be zoos today and tomorrow with people looking for generators. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Poimen showed the 06 Euro with a period of plan rain midday on Thursday before going back to zr. Maybe that mid day break can have a significant impact on total accretion. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 those wpc percentages for danville are just lights out, i mean how much more ice and tree damage etc can southside take this week? . Happy Birthday to me thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Another 33-35 and rain for Western NC... Good luck to Northern NC Southern VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, weatherlover said: Another 33-35 and rain for Western NC... Good luck to Northern NC Southern VA If you’re west of Asheville, yes. North and East is gonna get crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Some things change, some yet still always stay the same lol all due to respect to Webber he’s obviously more experienced than I, but idk why Catawba/Iredell/Rowan/Davie wouldn’t be in the 1/4” game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Models are trending warmer again for western NC with less accrual for the foothills compared to yesterday. Current NAM run is coming in warmer too. Think this one will be mainly for north of the Triad up into VA once again. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Latest models look interesting for Wake too. I don't think it will be a bad event (as of now) for Wake, but looks to have more potential than the last rounds. May get a WWA out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 33 rain. Even better ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just look at that wedge.....mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Just look at that wedge.....mercy. Some of those sleet rates up this way are still incredible. I couldn’t imagine having like 3” of sleet on the ground. Would be nutso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Just look at that wedge.....mercy. With a look like that you would think that would dig a little deeper. I still think models won't lock in until tonight into tomorrow morning. I would go with a blend of NAM/RGEM at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3km NAM temperatures doesn't scream ice storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I just don't see how that much ice accrual occurs with temps in the 30-32 range. You really need 28-29 with a sustained cold air feed keeping it there for the well over 0.25 amounts. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 3km NAM temperatures doesn't scream ice storm I think that’s a pretty broad stroke of the paint brush. Areas north of the NC/VA border if it does primarily end up being fzra over sleet could have a crippling lights out type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I think that’s a pretty broad stroke of the paint brush. Areas north of the NC/VA border if it does primarily end up being fzra over sleet could have a crippling lights out type event. Sure, but in NC as always it looks marginal for most. Probably another deal where above 3,000 ft along the escarpment gets nailed and valleys get 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 3km NAM temperatures doesn't scream ice storm A ton of precip has fallen by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: I just don't see how that much ice accrual occurs with temps in the 30-32 range. You really need 28-29 with a sustained cold air feed keeping it there for the well over 0.25 amounts. The triad begs to differ. Was 30-31 most of event and was pretty significant. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPman123 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The triad begs to differ. Was 30-31 most of event and was pretty significant. I never got below 31, and had significant tree damage. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: A ton of precip has fallen by this point. Wouldn't call this a ton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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