wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Models trending warmer at the last minute, no way! Shouldn't complain though could save me from days of power issues. Last 2 NAM runs have ticked warmer 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wow this is lights out from these guys. Day 2 High Risk of .25 Freezing Rain Outlook WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Models trending warmer at the last minute, no way! Shouldn't complain though could save me from days of power issues. Last 2 NAM runs have ticked warmer I think they’re just starting to hone in on small nuances at this point more than anything. 3K more than doubled my ice total from 6z. We’re Nowcasting at this point anyways. edit: plus the HRRR is trending towards a more significant event which is not good news. It was spot on 2 weeks ago. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: I think they’re just starting to hone in on small nuances at this point more than anything. 3K more than doubled my ice total from 6z. We’re Nowcasting at this point anyways. Yeah the NAM actually lowered my ICE Totals but the HRRR still has over 3/4" here... models will go back and forth with minor changes from thus point on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Models trending warmer at the last minute, no way! Shouldn't complain though could save me from days of power issues. Last 2 NAM runs have ticked warmer Not surprised, like clockwork and has been the story the this entire winter. Everyone should be prepared for power outages because that would be too dangerous to go conservative with it being this close but personally I don’t see anything more than a nuisance event for the foothills. I do want the ice however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Yeah the NAM actually lowered my ICE Totals but the HRRR still has over 3/4" here... models will go back and forth with minor changes from thus point on I’ll happily donate my ice totals to anyone that wants them 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Seeing the UKMET drop me to 28 with the precip starting is slightly alarming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I think they’re just starting to hone in on small nuances at this point more than anything. 3K more than doubled my ice total from 6z. We’re Nowcasting at this point anyways. edit: plus the HRRR is trending towards a more significant event which is not good news. It was spot on 2 weeks ago. It was spot on with the placement of the heaviest precipitation but not so much the totals. I don’t put much faith into its ZR maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The NAM unless I’m looking at it wrong (Pivotal Map) doesn’t even barely have Precip into Foothills even at 6Z Tomm.... could be a reason it seems warmer Jmo I think earlier onset the Colder obviously Edit: As Well as the HP is 75-100 miles Further NW than 6Z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: Seeing the UKMET drop me to 28 with the precip starting is slightly alarming. Yeah will be interesting to see how low the temps go and remember, IP pings , and ZR clings.... Dropping rhymes like dimes. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’ll happily donate my ice totals to anyone that wants them I live in Valdese in Burke County and will gladly take it. I really hope to get near 0.50 or so. If not at least 0.40. This will probably be my last chance this winter for anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 GSP increased their totals on the ice accumulation map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, BooneWX said: GSP increased their totals on the ice accumulation map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The wind—something that wasn’t an issue during this past weekend’s event—will more than make up for any slightly reduced ice accretion that might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: The wind—something that wasn’t an issue during this past weekend’s event—will more than make up for any slightly reduced ice accretion that might happen. Yeah that is definitely not looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knowledgeispwr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The wind—something that wasn’t an issue during this past weekend’s event—will more than make up for any slightly reduced ice accretion that might happen.That and the soil in most places is very saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWeenie87 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The dew point decreased in the 12z nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 No sun yet in Colfax and 27.9. It sure seems the models are backing off just a bit with fewer of the 1"+ totals showing up. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 We have seen it before this winter with the models getting aggressive only to pull back a bit northwest at the last minute. RAH busted on a few winter storm warnings this year because of that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, eyewall said: We have seen it before this winter with the models getting aggressive only to pull back a bit northwest at the last minute. RAH busted on a few winter storm warnings this year because of that. The thing is, storm track doesn't make much of a difference, with the high locked in place. Of course, it's quite possible the models are overdoing the strength of the wedge, but I wouldn't count on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wake was and always has been on the edge of this. Northwest/northern wake to face the brunt with southern Wake being spared the worst hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I dont think anyone but @wxduncan will care much if the trends go warmer. That being said, these last minute adjustments continue to be a problem that seems to have no solution except finding more data sources other than airplanes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 RAP (old school model I used to use) has a couple ZR maxs. One is near Youngsville and Northern Wake county with .9 (which is cray) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said: I dont think anyone but @wxduncan will care much if the trends go warmer. That being said, these last minute adjustments continue to be a problem that seems to have no solution except finding more data sources other than airplanes. Prob right I just needed them to trend back closer to the 0Z suite of data. As long I get close 0.50 or at least 0.40 I will be happy here In Valdese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Models are definitely trending a touch warmer and drier (though still pretty wet). TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Was talking with Al and Brad they said even with the trends my area looks to be good for 0.30-0.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 RDPS trending slightly warmer as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 So do we expect NWS to scale back their advisories/watches based on latest model output or let it ride? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: RDPS trending slightly warmer as well I think you’re seeing a consolidation on models to a 30-32 (average) degree storm with 0.25-0.50 accrual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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