WXNewton Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 RGEM wants to build a second batch of precip into the area Friday morning and showing possible rain/snow mix swinging through Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I went from tracking a possible severe threat to tracking ice within a span of 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 53 minutes ago, Ernest T Bass said: So far this year, freezing rain really hasn't materialized along the I40 corridor southwest of the Triad. I'm a little skeptical because of that, but sure looks like Statesville to Hickory to back toward the foothills and mountains might be in trouble this time. Hoping for sleet... I agree, @Ernest T Bass. Nothing has materialized to any degree here in the Hickory area, despite the multiple possibilities of freezing rain. But, this one feels different somehow... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking? Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking? Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist. TW If it happens, it would likely be in the morning package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking? Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist. TW Sitting here in Northern Randolph wondering the same. I will say the last ice event this past weekend we just got a light glaze. No two events are alike, however Climatology says there’s generally a tight cutoff just south and east of the I-85 corridor on events like these. I suspect that Davidson and Randolph will be placed under a warning if data holds/keeps trending over night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I agree, but it seemed the data was overwhelmingly obvious in plenty of time to get it in before the 10pm news casts. I suspect they'll just go straight to a warning. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 GFS up to .62 accrual for RDU now. RGEM is at roughly 1 inch. NAM up to .2. cut those #'s in half and blend them and you still get warning criteria ice. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I'm really amazed/disappointed/surprised/irked, etc that with such overwhelming model guidance for a disruptive storm, RAH has not expanded the watch area - not having Randolph and Davidson county in there......... what in the world are they thinking? Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist. They’ve seemed a step behind other offices pretty often lately. Their forecast discussions and maps don’t seem as updated as frequently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 If this was a situation where the models were converging on a 0.25-0.35 accrual ice storrm, then it wouldn't be so bad. But, most models have the amounts going MUCH higher. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Whisper a prayer for those poor husbands trying to buy a generator tomorrow who have to return home empty handed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, tarheelwx said: I agree, but it seemed the data was overwhelmingly obvious in plenty of time to get it in before the 10pm news casts. I suspect they'll just go straight to a warning. TW Well it’s RAH after all, they have always played it conservative, and It has a served them well more times than not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Watch the wind gust maps. Do the math. Seeing wind gust map , ne winds mid- high 20s. You get.5-.75 and those winds , with our sponge ground. Its cat4-5 on this chart. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just glad it looks like Cary is going to escape all this. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just glad it looks like Cary is going to escape all this.You may wanna check the RGEM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Accuweather forecast is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Accuweather forecast is wild Could you post Hickory or Morganton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, tarheelwx said: Maybe that's why they are meteorologists and I'm just a hobbyist. !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 i know i've complained about 33 degree rain.......but i'll take that over this any and all days of the week. Hoping this threat doesn't pan out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro trending colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 GSP back at the wheel this morning... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 RAH has gone all in. WWA looks like it’s for .1” and the WSW is for .25-.5”. edit: Blacksburg changed the watches to warnings as well with .5-.75” of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Winter Storm Warnings have been posted up this way for 1-3" of Snow/Sleet & 0.50-.75" of ZR... kinda surprised we aren't under an ICE Storm Warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Winter Storm Warnings have been posted up this way for 1-3" of Snow/Sleet & 0.50-.75" of ZR... kinda surprised we aren't under an ICE Storm Warning Because of the 1-3" of snow before the ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Because of the 1-3" of snow before the ice Well here where I live in Burke county this warning is for all ICE. Anywhere from 0.25 to 0.40 with locally higher amounts close 0.50. So I really don’t why we are under a WSW instead of a ICE storm warning. Unless all the offices just wanted simpler messaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wxduncan said: Well here where I live in Burke county this warning is for all ICE. Anywhere from 0.25 to 0.40 with locally higher amounts close 0.50. So I really don’t why we are under a WSW instead of a ICE storm warning. Unless all the offices just wanted simpler messaging. Good question. Usually a WSW is issued when there is a chance of sleet/snow or accumulations of those before the ice. As you state in your post, your warning is just for ice, which would suggest ISW would be better. Perhaps a met could weigh in and explain better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Isn’t ISW criteria .5”+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Good question. Usually a WSW is issued when there is a chance of sleet/snow or accumulations of those before the ice. As you state in your post, your warning is just for ice, which would suggest ISW would be better. Perhaps a met could weigh in and explain better? NVM was reading there discussion the day shifts of all 3 offices GSP,RAH and Blacksburg will be the ones to decide who gets Switched over to a Ice Storm Warning later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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