CentralNC Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, srobby76 said: Long time follower of these events and most have fallen apart on us, with that being said would yall cancel a training for people driving to Durham from the triad and Triangle for thursday and Friday. I have to decide today to prevent any charges for cancellations. Just my opinion, but major roads will more than likely be just wet, but as it usually goes for me is people have trouble getting out of neighborhoods due to hazards. If it was me, I would cancel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, srobby76 said: Long time follower of these events and most have fallen apart on us, with that being said would yall cancel a training for people driving to Durham from the triad and Triangle for thursday and Friday. I have to decide today to prevent any charges for cancellations. I would, personally, if the decision had to be made today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, srobby76 said: Long time follower of these events and most have fallen apart on us, with that being said would yall cancel a training for people driving to Durham from the triad and Triangle for thursday and Friday. I have to decide today to prevent any charges for cancellations. Yes. We have already started calling all of our Thursday morning patients to change their visits to video visits or reschedule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srobby76 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Thank you, that was my gut on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, jburns said: Then there are those of us who just have to walk a few feet to escape winter’s wrath. Since the county line runs right through my house I have a Winter Storm Watch in my garage, dining room and den but the rest of the house is in the non-event zone. I guess I should be thankful that I will only have to worry about the trees on the northern part of my property. At least the southern portion of your house will still have power! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, olafminesaw said: I think this might be the in house model that Brad P. uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WXNewton said: I think this might be the in house model that Brad P. uses. I’ve wondered I’ve never seen the FRAM model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 How do ice storms impact wifi? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Wasn’t he the one yesterday saying models and were trending away from an ice storm and the threat was diminishing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, PantherJustin said: I’ve wondered I’ve never seen the FRAM model FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 From a climo perspective, the 12z EURO SLP track is much more of a Snow to Sleet/Ice track (especially for interior sections of NC/VA). Certainly not a pure ZR track ending in rain that will push 10C+ 850 temps into interior NC... This will be interesting to following in the mods today/tomorrow. This system will likely feature much more sleet than we're seeing currently (at least for the interior/NW NC/S VA sections). 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Eric Webb (@webberweather) Tweeted: Last 4 days of 12z UKMET runs. Yea, this trend can stop now... #ncwx https://t.co/u1Kt7P0aNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff. It tries to. I still have real questions about accrual if it’s gonna be 50 degrees at 850mb. We’ve had numerous potential ZR events bust over the years due to heavy rates and stout warm noses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff. Ahhh dear lord Thats rough then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 unless we can keep the warm layer away, i do not like those temp trends where im at. starting to hope its sleetfest instead anything but more freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: From a climo perspective, the 12z EURO SLP track is much more of a Snow to Sleet/Ice track (especially for interior sections of NC/VA). Certainly not a pure ZR track ending in rain that will push 10C+ 850 temps into interior NC... This will be interesting to following in the mods today/tomorrow. This system will likely feature much more sleet than we're seeing currently (at least for the interior/NW NC/S VA sections). Thanks. This SLP track is one we’ve seen many times produce the Carolina mixed bag of snow/sleet/zr. The warm 850’s in this setup create the fly in the ointment. They are anomalous for a slp track such as this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: FRAM isn't a model, it's an algorithm that calculated true accrual of ice. It tends to be much more conservative than just straight accumulation maps.This is why it's concerning, because it will account for the portion of the rain that's just runoff. Yes, it's one of the many "grayed-out" premium features under the Winter Weather tab for the various model suites offered on Pivotal Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 12z EURO puts an X near me. Is that bad?Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z EURO puts an X near me. Is that bad? Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Well...I’d make a trip to Lowe’s sooner rather than later. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 pretty sure the lowes has already been cleaned out post weekend icefest. at this point its gonna be about hunkering down and staying warm would be my guess. why cant we have a deeper cold layer and all snow for a change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Blacksburg just extended their WSW products to their southern tier of counties. GSP, what say you? Quote Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 159 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...Significant mix of wintry precipitation possible... .A low pressure system will bring wintry precipitation across the Mid Atlantic starting on Wednesday night. Significant amounts of snow, sleet, and freezing rain are possible. The precipitation may start as a mix of snow and sleet on Wednesday night and change over to freezing rain for most locations by Thursday. Colder air could change the precipitation back to a mix of snow and sleet by late Thursday evening. NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-170500- /O.EXB.KRNK.WS.A.0006.210218T0000Z-210219T0500Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth- Bland-Wythe-Grayson- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Wytheville, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney 159 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations up to a quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and north central and northwest North Carolina. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GSP will probably issues watches around 3 for I 40 and north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, wncsnow said: GSP will probably issues watches around 3 for I 40 and north Yeah they will play it conservative I believe down here which I won't blame them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Tim Buckley: There are times when you look at what's coming and have a pit in your stomach when putting together the forecast. Some tough days are ahead for the Triad later this week with our second ice storm in a week. Get ready as best you can today/tomorrow. #ncwx #StormTrack2 https://t.co/mT1fn3cL9k 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webgems Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Well...I’d make a trip to Lowe’s sooner rather than later. I made my Lowe's run earlier. Right now looks like I may be in the little bit of everything bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 For what it's worth the HRRR is heavy sleet for many 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: For what it's worth the HRRR is heavy sleet for many Praying this is what we trend to 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GSP will hoist some watches shortly. Now is the time with their afternoon forecast package. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Praying this is what we trend to If only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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