CentralNC Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The triad begs to differ. Was 30-31 most of event and was pretty significant. Agree, GSO was 30-32 entire event and they got .25 in a lot of places. Key was it did not fall too fast allowing accrual. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, wncsnow said: Wouldn't call this a ton Half inch creeping into central McDowell and more than that long eastern slopes. Pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 That NAM looks a little colder. Almost identical though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Interesting to look at this trend gif and see the clearing over central/southern VA. Over time, it looks the NAM is trending towards a deeper cold dome (sleet) for those areas. This would generally shift the ZR line south as well. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looking at your house on the latest model run map and saying this isn’t going to be a serious event does everyone else a disservice. This thread covers a lot of territory. Some will get a cold rain. Others could be without power for two or three days. We have people reading this thread who don’t post, but would like to get a sense of what might be coming. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: Looking at your house on the latest model run map and saying this isn’t going to be a serious event does everyone else a disservice. This thread covers a lot of territory. Some will get a cold rain. Others could be without power for two or three days. We have people reading this thread who don’t post, but would like get a sense of what might be coming. I agree. Which is why people need to specify a location they are referring to with each post. It is complicated trying to go back and figure out which place people are talking about. For now, I would go with a FZRA event for typical climo areas. I do think WWA will go up southeast of the current WSW areas. Question is, how far? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Blacksburg early thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I agree. Which is why people need to specify a location they are referring to with each post. It is complicated trying to go back and figure out which place people are talking about. For now, I would go with a FZRA event for typical climo areas. I do think WWA will go up southeast of the current WSW areas. Question is, how far? im in nw nc mount airy near va border and no kind of watches for me and im fine with that. not a ice fan.. which who knows what will occur here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: The triad begs to differ. Was 30-31 most of event and was pretty significant. Yea, I’d agree. 32 won’t get it done but 30/31 definitely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Interesting to look at this trend gif and see the clearing over central/southern VA. Over time, it looks the NAM is trending towards a deeper cold dome (sleet) for those areas. This would generally shift the ZR line south as well. Time will tell. One marked trend going back 48 hours now has been significant cooling of the column north of our sub forum. Much deeper cold air has also been noted on several models in the 900-925 mb layer and has been picked up on as sleet by modeling as such. I don’t know if this will have much impact on surface temps but I wouldn’t be shocked that we start seeing BL temps tick down a degree or two with the noted mid level cooling from previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ghicks said: im in nw nc mount airy near va border and no kind of watches for me and im fine with that. not a ice fan.. which who knows what will occur here You almost certainly will be in a Winter Storm Watch with the afternoon forecast packages. I don't think Surry escapes this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: One marked trend going back 48 hours now has been significant cooling of the column north of our sub forum. Much deeper cold air has also been noted on several models in the 900-925 mb layer and has been picked up on as sleet by modeling as such. I don’t know if this will have much impact on surface temps but I wouldn’t be shocked that we start seeing BL temps tick down a degree or two with the noted mid level cooling from previous runs Good points. The main reason I think is b/c the pattern is trending more progressive over the eastern CONUS/Canada. This has eliminated the Apps runner scenario which would have overwhelmed the wedge with warm air aloft/down. Now we're trending towards a True Miller A/B hybrid. This generally brings more sleet into play over VA/northern NC from my experience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: Looking at your house on the latest model run map and saying this isn’t going to be a serious event does everyone else a disservice. This thread covers a lot of territory. Some will get a cold rain. Others could be without power for two or three days. We have people reading this thread who don’t post, but would like get a sense of what might be coming. Exactly. And the NAM may look warmer but it’s definitely not, if anything it brought heavier amounts further SE in CLT area. ANYONE along and NW of 85 Or a Line From Shelby-Concord-Lexington-NW Wake County Should prepare for an ice storm and Be pleasantly surprised if you end up not needed the extra supplies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NBM has me at .22 which is just short of a warning at 6z. At 12z, we're up to .27 which is warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Blacksburg early thoughts RAH is somewhat more aggressive with the totals into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Cold air source will be much better. Circulation around the high should be transporting air from cold snow-packed areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: RAH is somewhat more aggressive with the totals into NC. I also believe this was issued prior to a majority of the 6z model guidance infused into the graphic out of Blacksburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Good points. The main reason I think is b/c the pattern is trending more progressive over the eastern CONUS/Canada. This has eliminated the Apps runner scenario which would have overwhelmed the wedge with warm air aloft/down. Now we're trending towards a True Miller A/B hybrid. This generally brings more sleet into play over VA/northern NC from my experience. I would love sleet over frz rain anyday edit.. in northern GSO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: RAH is somewhat more aggressive with the totals into NC. For RAH, this is an extremely aggressive map at this juncture 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NBM has .3 totals for Caswell/Northern Orange/Far N Durham/Person counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It's a subtle trend, but the polar lobe over SE Canada continues to trends south/stronger. This will continue to strengthen the pinch of the confluent flow aloft over the northeast and induce higher pressure/HP at the surface. This produces a more transient pattern for our STJ s/w coming eastward. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: It's a subtle trend, but the polar lobe over SE Canada continues to trends south/stronger. This will continue to strengthen the pinch of the confluent flow aloft over the northeast and induce higher pressure/HP at the surface. This produces a more transient pattern for our STJ s/w coming eastward. Sorry for the stupid question so would that mean colder air for northern piedmont of nc ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, mclean02 said: Sorry for the stupid question so would that mean colder air for northern piedmont of nc ? Yes if it continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'm on mobile, but the RGEM is as classic an ice storm signal as it gets. Temps don't rise about 30 in the triad for almost the entire event and over 1.5" of precip. The few factors working against significant icing: Rates are a bit heavier this go around and it will be fairly warm and sunny the day before. Also more of the precip will be during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: It's a subtle trend, but the polar lobe over SE Canada continues to trends south/stronger. This will continue to strengthen the pinch of the confluent flow aloft over the northeast and induce higher pressure/HP at the surface. This produces a more transient pattern for our STJ s/w coming eastward. The weird thing is we are absolutely on fire at 850MB, despite the trends. We're talking about +11C at 850 on the NAM. The other models are much colder but it does give me pause to think about maintaining a freezing rain event with such a warm nose. 2002 never got warmer than +4C over the Charlotte area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: The weird thing is we are absolutely on fire at 850MB, despite the trends. We're talking about +11C at 850 on the NAM. The other models are much colder but it does give me pause to think about maintaining a freezing rain event with such a warm nose. 2002 never got warmer than +4C over the Charlotte area. True, i'm thinking those #'s will come down though if we have the SLP in the positions the other models have it. Would make no sense to have a warm nose that strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The only thing that could save our area is more sleet than ZR... although it looks like more ZR at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ouch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: ouch. Goodness. That’s not what you want to see getting close to game time. Cut those totals in half and you have 2002... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: ouch. That would have to go in the history books If that happened. Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now