high risk Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @high risk one last thing. Luckily there seems to be some synergy between the two bands. If the initial wave is south so is the second and Vice verse. So that seems to mitigate a total fail scenario. I guess I have it in my head that there may be a warm layer somewhere in the column for most of the area by later Thursday afternoon, but that's based off of the NAM/NAM nest, which still seem to have some outlier synoptic differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: RGEM, GFS Para (and now Canadian) also pick up on some form of backbuilding with light snow bands all the way out to late Friday/early Saturday. Not really sure why they do this, unless it's part of the costal development? Regardless it would be a period of light snow after the main system departs to freshen up the snowpack/sleet. Lift induced by the coastal wave along the Arctic boundary that is stalled along the east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Saw a couple of posts about NAM MOS throwing surface temps up above 32 at DCA. It should be noted that it's been a few degrees too warm of late. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That idea of a second period of snow later Thursday is across most guidance now. Rgem and some of the other high res models have it and so does the euro. Except the danger is if that ends up north and mix then places north of DC/Balt could be a screw zone between heavy bands of snow. On the other hand if we get in on the northern side of the morning band and get that secondary banding later we end up the Jack. Yeah. The RGEM started picking up on that with last nights runs. Most other guidance has jumped on board with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, high risk said: I guess I have it in my head that there may be a warm layer somewhere in the column for most of the area by later Thursday afternoon, but that's based off of the NAM/NAM nest, which still seem to have some outlier synoptic differences. Yes but the NAM is so far north with the initial WAA wave for the same reason it doesn’t even have the second wave. It blasts the mid level warm layer through and dry slots everyone and storm over. No second band because it wrecks the mid levels. But in that case we get the first band. But I think the NAM is likely going haywire post 36 hours. Some of the other high res models like the ARW and NMB have come around fully to the globals progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well @NorthArlington101 I think we both know that CHO and other points southwest of NOVA/DC/MD are not gonna get those totals! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I don't think the high res windows have been mentioned but they are coming into range. I took a look to see if the ptype is correlated to banding structure at all, and there's some evidence for this. In general, ARW and NSSL are warmest aloft (similar to NAM), probably sleet/snow mix or sleet by 12Z for the I66-I70 zone, whereas NMMB and HRRR are colder aloft and mostly snow north of EZF. Interestingly the ARW/NSSL are colder at the sfc than the NMMB and NAM. Not sure how this aligns with typical biases. HREF output should be really useful starting at 0Z tonight. 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Well @NorthArlington101 I think we both know that CHO and other points southwest of NOVA/DC/MD are not gonna get those totals! Sure, but all that precip has to fall as something. I don't think we'll get 10" of snow, but I think we are looking at an almost all winter precip event. 1" of sleet and a light glaze is probably an undersell. The truth is in the middle somewhere. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: I don't think the high res windows have been mentioned but they are coming into range. I took a look to see if the ptype is correlated to banding structure at all, and there's some evidence for this. In general, ARW and NSSL are warmest aloft (similar to NAM), probably sleet/snow mix or sleet by 12Z for the I66-I70 zone, whereas NMMB and HRRR are colder aloft and mostly snow north of EZF. Interestingly the ARW/NSSL are colder at the sfc than the NMMB and NAM. Not sure how this aligns with typical biases. HREF output should be really useful starting at 0Z tonight. HREF has been pretty good inside 36 hours this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Saw a couple of posts about NAM MOS throwing surface temps up above 32 at DCA. It should be noted that it's been a few degrees too warm of late. Not too warm for D.C. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The CMC aims that early snow tongue straight at the Winchester area and hammers us. Please let it be right for once. I dont have the qpf numbers off of that crazy site. But it is a beautiful site to see. That "finger" of snow now showing up would be a nice appetizer to the thump. Makes sense that there will be a quicker onset with precip running out in front as is the case with a lot of WAA events. Not to downplay what the whole sub will see but that front running snow could be a 1-3" primer for the main show for western spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Posted by a met on Twitter, 110% valid point. Why go against the seasonal trend and that has been a rug pull at the last minute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Do the models have a consesus on start and end times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 UK is a nice thump with DC hanging on to freezing at 700, 850, and 925 at 18z Thursday. Focuses heaviest precip south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 UK with a nice thump DC and south. Big step back from 0z for my area. Has the wrap around snow that ends up saving the NW crew. But that part is a big question mark IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Agree with weighing seasonal trends. This is looking very familiar to the 1st storm of the winter (way back in mid-December) for my backyard. 1-2 inches of snow then a mess. Probably less rain this time which would be an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: UK with a nice thump DC and south. Big step back from 0z for my area. Flips back to snow at the end. That's a nice trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Posted by a met on Twitter, 110% valid point. Why go against the seasonal trend and that has been a rug pull at the last minute. That’s just the nws discussion from lwx. Pretty sure they will lift watches with the afternoon package given the 12z runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, flsch22 said: Agree with weighing seasonal trends. This is looking very familiar to the 1st storm of the winter (way back in mid-December) for my backyard. 1-2 inches of snow then a mess. Probably less rain this time which would be an improvement. Looks really different from the dec storm... what are the similarities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Flips back to snow at the end. That's a nice trend. @NorthArlington101 Not sure why, but I am oddly optimistic about this one for CHO over to EZF area...... 2-4 of snow to 1 inch of sleet to 0.10"-0.25" seems like a good possibility with things turning to concrete as the high on Saturday is only high 20's/low 30's. Looking very wintry at least, always hope for more snow and less ice too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Look at that EZF jackpot from the Ukie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Here's 0z for comparison Edit: removed qpf image that included rain from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK with a nice thump DC and south. Big step back from 0z for my area. Has the wrap around snow that ends up saving the NW crew. But that part is a big question mark IMO. Unless we want DC to get screwed again our path up here is to get better ratios and score a few inches from the Thursday morning wave then tack on another round with the second wave. If we Jack from wave 1 Thursday morning it means DC got another screw job because the second wave will be north of the first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 UKie coming correct with that second burst of snow Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK with a nice thump DC and south. Big step back from 0z for my area. Has the wrap around snow that ends up saving the NW crew. But that part is a big question mark IMO. No worries. We just lost half the precip. That never happens here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: Here's 0z for comparison A lot of that 0z qpf was from last night 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: A lot of that 0z qpf was from last night True. The models that don’t have the 24 or 48 hour precip totals make comparison tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: No worries. We just lost half the precip. That never happens here No we didn’t. A lot of that qpf from 0z was last nights. We lost maybe .2 qpf because we get stuck between meso bands. But that’s totally meaningless on a global from this range. None of them can accurately place those meso bands. It was fine Imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 59 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Shoveling 5" of sleet concrete in one go sounds like hell on earth, I rather just slip on the ZR I’d much rather clear it first and then put down ice melt. we had a sleet storm near short Pump PD 2007 I think. Maybe 5 “. You couldn’t walk or drive in it. I used my 4wd tractor to plow a buddies neighbors driveway. She had to park in the culdesac and shlep her groceries 200 yards. Buddy told me she cried when she got home to a cleared driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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