clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The GFS is 7 inches of snow and two inches of sleet out here in the mountains. Friday is lower 30's for highs. And then the GFS drops the cold hammer Friday night into Saturday and turns it all into concrete. Great run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 43 minutes ago, GregD said: I experienced a storm like that in Oklahoma many, many years ago. Curb deep sleet (4-6") followed by freezing rain. Then the temps crashed. Net result was a chunky 4" thick glacier. Its my sneaky favorite kind of winter storm. I really am cheering for the NAM because of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Whoa boy...crusty crusty! Get the metal edges of your shovels ready...lol Shaping up to be a fun event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is the kind of storm where you wait to shovel until the very end so the ZR doesn't bond to the pavement. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is the kind of storm where you wait to shovel until the very end so the ZR doesn't bond to the pavement. Shoveling 5" of sleet concrete in one go sounds like hell on earth, I rather just slip on the ZR 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: This is the kind of storm where you wait to shovel until the very end so the ZR doesn't bond to the pavement. Yep and I think that all of the neighbors are going to shovel and then the one nice neighbor will go around with their snowblower and get all of the snow off the driveways of people who did not shovel unwittily dooming us all to ice. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Yep and I think that all of the neighbors are going to shovel and then the one nice neighbor will go around with their snowblower and get all of the snow off the driveways of people who did not shovel unwittily dooming us all to ice. Our cul de sac is almost exclusively elderly folks so my snowblower is welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Teens Friday night, high in the 20s Saturday, single digits for many Saturday night on the GFS. Would be a nice wintry weekend with the fresh snow pack if it played out like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, snowfan said: This is one where you want to be in North Bel Air I think 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Anyone have freezing rain/sleet maps that includes all of Va from 12z gfs? Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It appears as though the 12z CMC and GFS flip the western and northern suburbs back to a period of moderate snow on the backside. Para GFS flips all, not just N and W, to snow at the end. Doesn't look heavy tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: This is one where you want to be in North Bel Air I think At least you arent in Short Pump. I have never seen a place that get screwed worse than that on the GFS. Every storm. They get nothing. The GFS has that sneaky little event for Monday. Maybe a snow shower or quick burst? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is a weenie panel at hour 48. 12z GFS. Blue is snow, green is rain, pink is sleet and that other pink is freezy rain 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Anyone have freezing rain/sleet maps that includes all of Va from 12z gfs? Please 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This could be this kind of storm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The hole over SE Harford County is sad and funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Maybe not a great time for the GEFS. But it looks pretty sweet for the entire subforum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: At least you arent in Short Pump. I have never seen a place that get screwed worse than that on the GFS. Every storm. They get nothing. They did get about 4" and .5" ice with this last storm. This doesn't look good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Thanks! That ice in RVA would make this past weekend’s ice look tame. As per this GFS run anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 An inch and a half of sleet, a few inches of snow and a trace of ice for CHO says the GFS. Well at least it will be like 50 a few days later. That's going to be hell to clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, high risk said: The GFS para total snow maps look nice, but when you parse the details, it focuses the thump over DC and points south; it's quite a bit less for those of us further north. It does big another slug of snow through the northern areas later in the day, though, so the storm total maps end up looking like a win for everyone. But it definitely has some details that are quite different from the ops GFS. That idea of a second period of snow later Thursday is across most guidance now. Rgem and some of the other high res models have it and so does the euro. Except the danger is if that ends up north and mix then places north of DC/Balt could be a screw zone between heavy bands of snow. On the other hand if we get in on the northern side of the morning band and get that secondary banding later we end up the Jack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The CMC aims that early snow tongue straight at the Winchester area and hammers us. Please let it be right for once. I dont have the qpf numbers off of that crazy site. But it is a beautiful site to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 CMC keeps DC snow way longer, another dope run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Canadian is a sick run for DC north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 No big changes on the graph so far in 12Z suite, it's nice to see 12k on the board. GFS remains entrenched above CMC/EURO/NAM. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 @high risk one last thing. Luckily there seems to be some synergy between the two bands. If the initial wave is south so is the second and Vice verse. So that seems to mitigate a total fail scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 CMC goes back to snow and keeps falling through 16Z Friday out here. Beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: An inch and a half of sleet, a few inches of snow and a trace of ice for CHO says the GFS. Well at least it will be like 50 a few days later. That's going to be hell to clean up. Well if we take the rest of the run literally... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That idea of a second period of snow later Thursday is across most guidance now. Rgem and some of the other high res models have it and so does the euro. Except the danger is if that ends up north and mix then places north of DC/Balt could be a screw zone between heavy bands of snow. On the other hand if we get in on the northern side of the morning band and get that secondary banding later we end up the Jack. RGEM, GFS Para (and now Canadian) also pick up on some form of backbuilding with light snow bands all the way out to late Friday/early Saturday. Not really sure why they do this, unless it's part of the costal development? Regardless it would be a period of light snow after the main system departs to freshen up the snowpack/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Canadian is a sick run for DC north. We're 24* when precip breaks out in DC, that's nice. Absolute sleet bomb for DC+S/E though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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